Spatially varying dynamic coefficient models

In this work we present a flexible class of linear models to treat observations made in discrete time and continuous space, where the regression coefficients vary smoothly in time and space. This kind of model is particularly appealing in situations where the effect of one or more explanatory processes on the response present substantial heterogeneity in both dimensions. We describe how to perform inference for this class of models and also how to perform forecasting in time and interpolation in space, using simulation techniques. The performance of the algorithm to estimate the parameters of the model and to perform prediction in time is investigated with simulated data sets. The proposed methodology is used to model pollution levels in the Northeast of the United States.     

A class of count models and a new consistent test for the Poisson distribution

We define a class of count distributions which includes the Poisson as well as many alternative count models. Then the empirical probability generating function is utilized to construct a test for the Poisson distribution, which is consistent against this class of alternatives. The limit distribution of the test statistic is derived in case of a general underlying distribution, and efficiency considerations are addressed. A simulation study indicates that the new test is comparable in performance to more complicated omnibus tests.     

Canonical correlation analysis for the vector AR(1) model with ARCH innovations

This paper extends the results of canonical correlation analysis of Anderson [2002. Canonical correlation analysis and reduced-rank regression in autoregressive models. Ann. Statist. 30, 1134–1154] to a vector AR(1) process with a vector ARCH(1) innovations. We obtain the limiting distributions of the sample matrices, the canonical correlations and the canonical vectors of the process. The extension is important because many time series in economics and finance exhibit conditional heteroscedasticity. We also use simulation to demonstrate the effects of ARCH innovations on the canonical correlation analysis in finite sample. Both the limiting distributions and simulation results show that overlooking the ARCH effects in canonical correlation analysis can easily lead to erroneous inference.     

A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty,duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.     

Correlates of infant pointing frequency in the first year

This study examines the emergence of concurrent correlates of infant pointing frequency with the aim of contributing to its ontogenetic theories. We measured monthly from 8 to 12 months infants' (N = 56) index-finger pointing frequency along with several candidate correlates: (1) family socioeconomic status (SES), (2) mothers' pointing production, and (3) infants' point following to targets in front of and behind them. Results revealed that (1) infants increased their pointing frequency across age, but high-SES infants had a steeper increase, and a higher pointing frequency than low-SES infants from 10 months onward, (2) maternal pointing frequency was not associated with infant pointing frequency at any age, (3) infants' point following abilities to targets behind their visual fields was positively associated with their pointing frequency at 12 months, after pointing had already emerged around 10 months. Findings suggest that family SES impacts infants' pointing development more generally, not just through maternal pointing. The association between pointing and following points to targets behind, but not in front, suggests that a higher level of referential understanding emerges after, and perhaps through the production of pointing.     

Generative systemic-constructionist psychotherapy in the face of crisis in the context of armed violence in colombia: Case of MM,Montes de María – Department of Sucre

This article aims to show a process of systemic-constructionist and generative therapy in the face of crisis situations experienced by MM. MM is a woman victim–survivor from the region of Los Montes de María in Colombia, a territory hard hit by armed violence between 1990 and 2008. Methodologically, the fragments presented are those that are repeated in three sessions. Psychotherapeutic work is a combination of dialogical and interactive resources, opportunities, and capacities that combine three kinds of time in MM's daily life. These are: first, the past of the violence; second, the present comprised of the presence of memories of violence, social and family interactions, together with psychiatric diagnoses; and third, the sense of a future based on the hope of reducing their suffering and taking action against the violence. Analysis and interpretation are hermeneutical constructions carried out throughout the psychotherapeutic process and in the midst of generative dialogues. On the one hand, the scientific and everyday knowledge that helps to process and transform the crisis is recognised. On the other hand, it shows a form of knowledge that distances itself from the parameters of science and positivist approaches. In conclusion, this article is an opportunity to question traditional positions within the field of mental health in the light of moments constructed with MM in the framework of systemic-constructionist therapy, seen as a relational space where generative contexts are built.