Construction of Confidence Intervals for the IVIean of a Population Containing Many Zero Values

The likelihood ratio method is used to construct a confidence interval for a population mean when sampling from a population with certain characteristics found in many applications, such as auditing. Specifically, a sample taken from this type of population usually consists of a very large number of zero values, plus a small number of nonzero values that follow some continuous distribution. In this situation, the traditional confidence interval constructed for the population mean is known to be unreliable. This article derives confidence intervals based on the likelihood-ratio-test approach by assuming (1) a normal distribution (normal algorithm) and (2) an exponential distribution (exponential algorithm). Because the error population distribution is usually unknown, it is important to study the robustness of the proposed procedures. We perform an extensive simulation study to compare the percentage of confidence intervals containing the true population mean using the two proposed algorithms with the percentage obtained from the traditional method based on the central limit theorem. It is shown that the normal algorithm is the most robust procedure against many different distributional error assumptions.     

山西黄土CBR的影响分析

在山西省选取5种典型黄土，采用室内试验方法，制备不同击实次数，不同含水量的试件用于CBR值的测定，分析含水量和压实度对黄土填料CBR值的影响，并建立了CBR与含水量的相关关系式。试验结果表明：含水量对CBR值的影响程度最大，在最佳含水量，最大压实度条件下的CBR值最大，含水量越大，击实次数对CBR值的提高效果甚微。随着击实次数的增大，浸水 CBR和不浸水CBR与含水量的相关关系都呈现一定的规律性。     

A Novel Human Error Probability Assessment Using Fuzzy Modeling

Human error is one of the significant factors contributing to accidents. Traditional human error probability (HEP) studies based on fuzzy number concepts are one of the contributions addressing such a problem. It is particularly useful under circumstances where the lack of data exists. However, the degree of the discriminability of such studies may be questioned when applied under circumstances where experts have adequate information and specific values can be determined in the abscissa of the membership function of linguistic terms, that is, the fuzzy data of each scenario considered are close to each other. In this article, a novel HEP assessment aimed at solving such a difficulty is proposed. Under the framework, the fuzzy data are equipped with linguistic terms and membership values. By establishing a rule base for data combination, followed by the defuzzification and HEP transformation processes, the HEP results can be acquired. The methodology is first examined using a test case consisting of three different scenarios of which the fuzzy data are close to each other. The results generated are compared with the outcomes produced from the traditional fuzzy HEP studies using the same test case. It is concluded that the methodology proposed in this study has a higher degree of the discriminability and is capable of providing more reasonable results. Furthermore, in situations where the lack of data exists, the proposed approach is also capable of providing the range of the HEP results based on different risk viewpoints arbitrarily established as illustrated using a real‐world example.     

金融危机下外资银行对我国金融业的影响分析

一、当前金融危机对我国金融业的启示 全球性金融危机使许多国家经济遭受重创，各国金融机构所受冲击更大。同时．旧的国际金融秩序被打破，新的国际金融体系正在建立。在这样的大背景下．我国金融业发展也不可能“独善其身”。改革开放以来．我国金融业不断融入世界金融体系．不可避免地面临全球金融环境变化的影响。但从总体发展看．推动我国金融业发展的动力仍然十分强劲．行业增长趋势不会改变。     

基于Gabor变换的信号降噪方法

介绍了Gabor变换的基本理论，提出了一种基于Gabor变换的降噪方法。该方法首先对信号进行Gabor变换，并选择合适的阈值对Gabor展开系数进行处理，然后对处理后的Gabor展开系数进行Gabor逆变换，从而实现降噪。仿真结果表明，该方法具有很好的降噪效果，为机械故障诊断提供了一种新的思路。     

我国公益信托发展缓慢的原因

公益信托是为救济贫困、救助灾民，扶助残疾人，发展教育、科技、文化、艺术、体育、医疗卫生、环境保护事业和其他社会公益事业而设立的信托。分析界定公益信托的构成，探讨我国公益信托发展缓慢的原因，应从管理机构、审批程序、监察人、受益人、受托人、税收制度六个方面建立和完善我国的公益信托制度。使其发挥应有的作用。     

对天津市近期建设规划编制的思考与建议

一、天津市近规编制方法回顾 （一）滚动性近期建设规划 天津市近期建设规划（以下简称“近规”）工作开始较早，在国务院批复的《天津市城市总体规划（1986年～2000年）》中，近规就已经作为一个专项进行编制。自1999年开始，天津采取滚动编制的模式，即每年编制一次后五年的近规。     

The Political Implementation of Habermas''s Moral Self-discipline Theory——To Discuss with Professor Yao Dazhi

哈贝马斯的政治哲学是其实践哲学、也就是道德自律学说在政治生活领域的运用和实现。姚大志撇开哈氏整体的实践哲学体系,单在政治哲学文献中寻找内在逻辑,造成了一系列错误。哈氏政治哲学的逻辑是:主体间交往实践生成主体,因此主体间交往(公共商谈)既是开放的,又是自律的;法律的开放性是私人自律与公共自律的通道,也是道德自律的政治实现的途径。坚持哲学对政治的参与,体现了黑格尔和马克思哲学传统对哈贝马斯的影响。     

Developing a new BIC for detecting change-points

Usual derivation of BIC for the marginal likelihood of a model or hypothesis via Laplace approximation does not hold for a change-point which is a discrete parameter. We provide an analogue l BIC, which is a lower bound to the marginal likelihood of a model with change points and has an approximation error up to O_p(1) like standard Schwartz BIC. Several applications are provided covering simulated r.v.'s and real financial figures on short-term interest rate.     

西蒙娜·德·波伏瓦的多重形象及其在中国的接受

不同寻常的爱情经历,对写作和文字的热爱与执着,对女性的关注与思考,西蒙娜·德·波伏瓦展现在世人面前的便是这样一位特立独行又具多方面才华的女性.她的多重独特性也构建起了她在接受过程中的多重形象.当作为"女人"、作为"存在主义女作家"、作为"女权主义教母"的波伏瓦形象传播到中国,中国评论界与普通读者在接受过程中对不同侧面的波伏瓦表现出了不尽相同的热情与关注度,其不同侧面形象的接受也因而呈现出截然不同的命运和特点.