长安出土《统毗伽可贺敦延陁墓志》考释

《统毗伽可贺敦延陁墓志》出土于长安昭陵,为李思摩妻子延陁氏的墓志.延陁氏乃薛延陀部族酋长之胄,后嫁于突厥可汗所出阿史那思摩.630年,延陁氏随思摩降唐,被安置在夏州一带,在故定襄城、长安等处亦有居所.作为突厥可汗的夫人,延陁氏亲历了隋末至唐初漠北地区的风云变幻,见证了突厥汗国和薛延陀汗国兴衰更替,这些内容在《统毗伽可贺敦延陁墓志》中多有反映,可与《李思摩墓志》相表里.该墓志为深入研究薛延陀部族的历史和贞观时期的北疆民族关系提供了重要的新证据.     

食品全产业链三维风险评价

为了有效控制食品全产业链风险,降低食品安全事件发生概率和影响程度,文章运用三维风险分析模型构建食品全产业链风险评价模型.从全产业链流程视角分析食品全产业链的各环节风险,从而构建食品全产业链风险评价指标体系.然后,采用熵值法确定食品全产业链风险评价指标重要度,结合现有食品全产业链风险发生可能性统计资料和风险后果划分标准,确定食品全产业链的各环节风险影响因素风险程度.根据风险发生概率、风险指标重要度和风险因素发生后果三维风险评价模型确定的关键因素,寻求相应的食品安全风险控制措施.     

Composite quantile regression for massive datasets

Analysis of massive datasets is challenging owing to limitations of computer primary memory. Composite quantile regression (CQR) is a robust and efficient estimation method. In this paper, we extend CQR to massive datasets and propose a divide-and-conquer CQR method. The basic idea is to split the entire dataset into several blocks, applying the CQR method for data in each block, and finally combining these regression results via weighted average. The proposed approach significantly reduces the required amount of primary memory, and the resulting estimate will be as efficient as if the entire data set is analysed simultaneously. Moreover, to improve the efficiency of CQR, we propose a weighted CQR estimation approach. To achieve sparsity with high-dimensional covariates, we develop a variable selection procedure to select significant parametric components and prove the method possessing the oracle property. Both simulations and data analysis are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

Evidence-based practice in Chinese social work: overcoming language and developmental barriers

This scoping review followed Cochrane guidelines to comprehensively assess the use and understanding of Evidence-Based Practice (EBP) in Chinese social science literature. We conducted a research across three electronic databases and three major social science journals for the studies published between 2004 and 2016. Chinese social work literature demonstrates a precise understanding of EBP defined as a process, but it lacks comprehensive discussions about EBP that extend beyond basic principles and process definitions. We identified language barriers and developmental issues for social work in China that contribute to these incomplete discussions. We examined the importance of broadening and enriching the discussions around EBP, especially for Chinese educators, researchers, and clinicians involved with empirically supported treatments. We also consider the implications of our findings for the development of social work in China.     

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time‐series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time‐series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two‐month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time‐series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.     

《利维坦》中国家主权与个人自我保存权之间的张力

在《利维坦》中,国家主权与个人自我保存权是两个核心概念。出于维护个人自我保存权的目的,霍布斯构建出一个强有力的国家主权。但是,国家主权和自我保存权之间却存在着严重的张力:一方面,不受制约的国家主权必然导致主权者权力的滥用,进而会侵害个人的自我保存权;另一方面,对个人自我保存权的过分强调使臣民对抗法律和主权具有了道义上的依据,这势必损毁国家主权的基础。《利维坦》中逻辑困境的症结在于:一方面,霍布斯没有把主权的至高无上与治权的应受制约区分开来;另一方面,霍布斯对于自然状态下与国家状态下的自我保存权未作应有的区分。     

美国联邦官僚系统的自主性和政治控制

在美国的多元政治体制下,其联邦官僚系统保持着一定程度的自主性。与之同时,又接受着来自国会、总统和社会利益集团等多种政治主体的影响和控制,形成"一仆二主"乃至"一仆多主"的现象。基于美国的民主原则,美国联邦官僚系统必须回应来自政治系统的意愿和利益要求,接受其监督,同时凭借自身的专业技术能力及其他职业性资源,又保持着相对独立性,呈现出美国政治中特有的政治行政关系结构和特征。     

民国时期的社会转型、政权建设与族群关系

中华民国时期是中国历史中最复杂和最动荡的时代。贯穿民国38年历史的有三条主线。第一条主线是中国各族人民坚持反对帝国主义侵略的斗争;第二条主线是中华民国下属各民族维护国家统一、与帝国主义支持的国内分裂势力的斗争。这两条主线是晚清"救亡图存"斗争的延续。第三条主线是探索如何实现国家体制的政治转型,实现从"多元型帝国"向现代"民族国家"的体制过渡和国民思想过渡。在整个民国期间,帝国主义别有用心地向中国各族群输入"民族"意识,并扶植代理人。民国历史中,最核心的利益是救国图存,捍卫中华民族的独立和领土完整。在评价民国所有的历史人物时,这是一条最根本的底线。     

国际人力资源社会保障发展趋势

1.全球就业面临多重挑战。2.劳动力市场的结构性问题:(1)劳动力供给增长减缓,部分原因是许多国家人口老龄化;(2)各类技能需求发生重大转变,高技能人才需求增加;(3)持续存在的收入不平等。3.欧美发达国家的社会保障制度深受金融危机影响,许多高收入国家压缩社保待遇。而许多中等收入国家大胆扩展其社会保障体系,有力地促进了国内需求拉动型的经济增长,如中国、巴西等。4.实施更加积极社会保障政策深入人心。包括预防和早期干预,旨在减少社会风险以及由此产生的对社会保障津贴的需求,促进劳动者就业和重返劳动力市场,减少贫困和不平等状况。5.社保水平充足性与可持续性之间的平衡需要妥善对待。6.很多新兴和发展中经济体平均实际工资增速大于发达经济体。世界各地区的工资发展趋势受到该地区中较大经济体的影响。亚洲的平均工资增长主要由中国工资增长驱动。7.各国劳动收入份额普遍处于下降态势。8.全球收入不平等处于上升趋势。9.全球人力资源社会保障发展的经验与启示:(1)必须重视就业增长与经济增长的关系;(2)必须把人力资源社会保障置于经济社会发展框架中认识和把握;(3)必须更加重视社会保障功能的发挥。     

FAIR ALLOCATION WHEN PLAYERS' PREFERENCES ARE UNKNOWN

Suppose an arbitrator needs to allocate an asset among two players, whose claims on the asset are incompatible. The allocation outcome is said to be fair if the arbitrator awards an outcome that brings the same utility payoff to the two players whenever the two players' claims are symmetric and the allocation set is symmetric. In conjunction with other natural axioms, this fairness requirement implies a unique allocation outcome for any claims problem. We propose a mechanism which can be used by the arbitrator to implement this allocation outcome, even when the players' preferences are unknown to the arbitrator. (JEL C78, D63, J52)