中国高龄老年人口生活质量研究

本文从《中国高龄老人健康长寿调查数据集 (1998)》所提供的资料中筛选出有关生理健康、心理健康、日常生活功能和社会完好性等四个方面的评价指标 ,将这些指标的加权值进行量化处理。发现中国高龄老年人口总体生活质量的平均等级分最高 ,生理健康的平均等级分最低 ,心理健康与日常生活功能的平均等级分居中。同时 ,还发现中国男性高龄老人生活质量的平均等级分高于女性高龄老人 ;80— 90岁组生活质量的平均等级分高于 90— 99级老人 ,更高于 10 0— 10 5岁级老人 ;城镇高龄老人生活质量的平均等级分高于农村高龄老人。     

当代大学生社会主义制度认同与制度自信?

制度认同在社会政治生活中占有十分重要的地位,它可以坚定人们的社会主义价值理念,唤起人们积极的制度化参与,增强人们对制度的自信心,进而增强全社会的向心力和凝聚力,巩固党执政的社会基础。制度认同与制度自信互为条件,互相促进,相辅相成。当前大学生制度认同存在问题,主要体现为对分配制度的公正性和对政治制度的规范性缺乏认同。培养大学生的制度认同与制度自信,要不断推进社会主义制度的改革和完善,要加强社会主义文化建设,要切实提高大学生马克思主义理论素养。这对于保证国家长远持续稳定发展,构建社会主义和谐社会,具有重大和深远的现实意义。     

中国低碳出口的路径选择与制度安排

低碳出口是一国出口贸易与低碳经济主流趋势相融合的产物。作为世界第一大贸易出口国和温室气体排放国,完成低碳出口转型是中国实现对外贸易可持续发展的必然抉择。在路径选择上,中国应从宏观经济、中观产业和微观企业层面,探索低碳出口"点—线—面"有机结合的路径模式。同时在制度安排层面,稳步纳入碳约束措施,倒逼国内出口产业完成低碳发展转型,培育出口企业的低碳竞争力。在制度工具的选择上,探索实行碳排放交易这类基于市场的减排选项,实现与国际实践的接轨。     

“私人执法”是否存在——与徐昕教授商榷

《法律的私人执行》(以下简称《执行》)一文在《法学研究》上发表以后,引起了广泛的关注。当时徐昕教授所提出的"私人执法"的概念与其运用的历史分析方法和法经济学分析方法给我们带来了启发。但是为何私人能够执法?以及"私人执法"这个概念能否成立?法社会学或者法制史研究的实证主义(legal positivism)进路单独无法回答这些问题。在日常生活中,"私力救济"现象固然存在,然而这种救济在多大程度上可命名为"私人执法"更是一个法学理论的问题。社会中的"私力救济"现象若要转化为"私人执法"的法律概念必须面对科学性、合法性、有效性等问题。换言之,法理学中能否科学地推导出"私人执法",在实证分析的基础上,必须同时进行规范的法理学研究。通过分析不难发现,私人执法的概念中蕴含着巨大的、不可调和的矛盾问题。     

Cross Validation of the Gambling Problem Severity Subscale of the Canadian Adolescent Gambling Index (CAGI/GPSS) on a Sample of Ontario High School Students

This paper reports on the cross validation of the Gambling Problem Severity Subscale of the Canadian Adolescent Gambling Index (CAGI/GPSS). The CAGI/GPSS was included in a large school based drug use and health survey conducted in 2015. Data from students in grades 9–12 (ages 13–20 years) derived from the (N = 3369 students). The CAGI/GPSS produced an alpha of 0.789. A principle component analysis revealed two eigenvalues greater than one. An oblique rotation revealed these components to represent consequences and over involvement. The CAGI/GPSS indicated that 1% of the students fell into the “red” category indicating a severe problem and an additional 3.3% scored in the “yellow” category indicating low to moderate problems. The CAGI/GPSS was shown to be significantly correlated with gambling frequency (r = 0.36), largest expenditure (r = 0.37), sex (more likely to be male) (r = ?0.19), lower school marks (r = ?0.07), hazardous drinking, (r = 0.16), problem video game play (r = 0.16), as well as substance abuse. The CAGI/GPSS was cross validated using a shorted version of the short SOGS, r = 0.48. In addition the CAGI/GPSS and short SOGS produced very similar patterns of correlations results. The results support the validity and reliability of the CAGI/GPSS as a measure of gambling problems among adolescents.     

改进粒子群算法优化灰色神经网络预测模型及其应用

文章针对神经网络存在局部最优、收敛速度慢以及大样本等缺点,将改进的粒子群算法、灰色模型和神经网络模型有机结合,构建了改进粒子群优化灰色神经网络预测模型(IPSO-GMNN).并与其他预测模型进行比较,实证结果表明:IPSO-GMNN预测模型能够克服神经网络预测模型的不足,更好地识别时间序列的非线性和突变性特征.在对我国专利授权数量的预测应用中,新模型对非线性时间数据预测表现出更好的预测精度和稳定性.     

中国股市高阶矩风险及其对投资收益的冲击

本文首先建立NAGARCHSK模型,推算市场收益率的条件高阶矩序列,在此基础上建立引入高阶矩风险的收益-风险时变四因子状态空间模型,并基于2000-2016年中国股票市场的收益率数据,实证探究不同时期市场高阶矩风险对投资收益的冲击.结果显示:我国股票市场收益受到高阶矩风险的影响,并且条件高阶矩序列表现出时变和波动聚集的特征,大规模的全球性金融危机和国内市场的重大风险事件均会使股市收益的条件高阶矩序列出现持续的异常波动.在未出现极端金融危机的稳定时期,市场收益率的条件方差会趋于对投资收益产生正向影响,条件偏度和条件峰度对投资收益的影响在正向和负向之间不断交替,增加了投资收益的不确定性.然而在全球性的极端金融危机时期,市场收益率的条件方差会转而对投资收益产生负向影响,条件峰度则会对投资收益带来持续的正向影响.     

An Examination of School Counselors’ Competency Working with Lesbian,Gay and Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) Students

This study aims to investigate school counselors’ competency level in working with lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) youth. Using a sample of 125 school counselors who are currently practicing in schools, this study found school counselors perceived themselves with very low competency levels. Spearman's rho correlation results indicated that only three demographic variables were significantly correlated with school counselors’ self-perceived competency level: sexual orientation, whether having received any postmasters trainings and geographic regions. Counselors identifying as nonheterosexual, those who received postmasters trainings or workshops, and those who reside in the West tend to have a higher self-perceived competency working with youth identifying as LGBT.     

Producing mobility: visual narratives of the rural migrant worker in Chinese television

This paper employs literatures of mobility to explore the ways which rural migrant workers in China are represented publicly via television drama. Through an analysis of the popular serial Mingong, the paper examines the underlying politics of contemporary migration in China through three themes: the territorialisation of rural and urban spaces; the embodiment of boundaries via corporeal practices and subjectivities; and the politicisation of rural migrant desires. This analysis demonstrates the significance of television in crafting discursive understandings of mobility and migrants that are suffused with contemporary governmentalities of generating but also managing and excluding migration.