"轻舞飞扬"与"带着镣铐跳舞"--外国动画与中国动画之比较

目前,欧美及日本动画片已经发展到一个相对成熟的阶段.与国外动画片相比,中国动画在创作定位、题材选择方面还受到诸多限制,在情节编排上还不是很完善.但国产动画创作的素材非常丰富,且长期保留着浓厚的民族文化传统,在创作方法上有很多值得借鉴和传承的手法,如水墨画、剪纸、蜡染、木偶等手法.针对我国动画业的客观状况,要进一步发展动画事业,须从重树自我理念、给动画创作重新定位、完善自我的动画产业等方面着手,倾力打造中国的动画品牌.     

现实主义政治伦理与特殊主义世界观——西方经典思想和当代中国理念

从简要地辨识实际上源于马基雅维里的"国家理由"观念出发,可以谈论或揭示现实主义政治伦理的基本内涵、精髓和精神风貌,它们从马基雅维里发动往后,尤其经过韦伯、尼布尔和摩根索等人的"现当代化"提炼和阐发,一直贯穿至今.它们可以概括为五条,其中包括在本质上涉及特殊主义的一类重要内涵.与普遍主义相对立,西方政治思想史上的特殊主义世界观起自黎塞留,其真谛在于压倒性地注重"时间、地点和人物的相对情况",强调人类事务以及政治方略的由此决定的复杂不定、情势特征和实践能动性.现当代中国思想史上的最大创新,可以说是一种出自毛泽东、继而由邓小平创造性地予以继承的特殊主义.它概括了现当代中国的特殊经验,但是可以有普遍含义,即各国人民的未来主要取决于各国人民依据本国具体情势的自主实践.这与西方主流的西式普遍主义相左,也大不同于中国传统的儒家世界观及其"方法论"的礼教普遍主义.对当今中国来说,至关紧要是牢记世界永恒变动,中国不息演化,在特殊主义那里显著昭 彰的根本思想素质和实践要求永远必不可少,那包括按照实际的具体形势做出具体评判和决定具体方略,加上为之在认识上和实践中勤勉不懈,勇于创新.     

高校学报宏观评价的现状及改进建议

为深入研究各类别期刊的宏观评价体系,以占我国学术期刊近三分之一的高校学报为研究对象,综述了高校学报认可和使用的评价指标体系,介绍了政府主导的学术期刊评价,行业人员对高校学报的评价,及国际知名检索期刊对高校学报的隐性评价。在此基础上,指出了高校学报评价存在的问题并提出了高校学报评价的改进建议,最后,以其国际影响力、国内影响力及行业人员对它内在质量的评价三个方面为一级评价指标,建立了适合高校学报宏观评价的指标体系。     

Stepwise local influence in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models

Detection of outliers or influential observations is an important work in statistical modeling, especially for the correlated time series data. In this paper we propose a new procedure to detect patch of influential observations in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Firstly we compare the performance of innovative perturbation scheme, additive perturbation scheme and data perturbation scheme in local influence analysis. We find that the innovative perturbation scheme give better result than other two schemes although this perturbation scheme may suffer from masking effects. Then we use the stepwise local influence method under innovative perturbation scheme to detect patch of influential observations and uncover the masking effects. The simulated studies show that the new technique can successfully detect a patch of influential observations or outliers under innovative perturbation scheme. The analysis based on simulation studies and two real data sets show that the stepwise local influence method under innovative perturbation scheme is efficient for detecting multiple influential observations and dealing with masking effects in the GARCH model.     

Spatial Vulnerability of Network Systems under Spatially Local Hazards

A hazard is often spatially local in a network system, but its impact can spread out through network topology and become global. To qualitatively and quantitatively assess the impact of spatially local hazards on network systems, this article develops a new spatial vulnerability model by taking into account hazard location, area covered by hazard, and impact of hazard (including direct impact and indirect impact), and proposes an absolute spatial vulnerability index (ASVI) and a relative spatial vulnerability index (RSVI). The relationship between the new model and some relevant traditional network properties is also analyzed. A case study on the spatial vulnerability of the Chinese civil aviation network system is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model, and another case study on the Beijing subway network system to verify its relationship with traditional network properties.     

做好父母：家长主义浪潮下的教养困境——基于畅销杂志读者来信的文本分析

家长主义浪潮下,子女发展与父母所拥有的资源、能力及意愿关联日趋紧密。然而,全面发展的教养理念与实践之间存在种种落差,使陷入困境的父母充满担忧与无助等负面体验。究其原因,教养分工中的日常摩擦、教养能力的不足及教养理念的轴心不稳均影响困境形成。因此,我们还需让研究视角回到现实生活,在为人父母的真实体验中开展家庭教养研究。     

高校人才培养模式的实证研究

人才培养模式的要素包括培养目标、过程、制度和评价。文章分析了高校中主要群体对于人才培养期望值与实际值的差异。实证研究得出,高校中的两大主体(教师、学生)存在着个体差异,对人才培养的评价存在着不同,但对人才培养整体的评价差异并不显著。另外,在构成人才培养模式的四个要素中,培养过程最为重要,其次是制度。     

Trade credit: the interaction of financing,marketing, operations,and risk behavior

This paper builds an inter-organizational Stackelberg game model of trade credit. The incentive-compatible decision on credit term is made endogenously and in coordination to ensure Pareto optimality for both the supplier and the retailer. Our model factors in financing, marketing, operations, default risk, and risk attitude coherently, treating trade credit as their intersectional nexus. We introduce the uncertainty due to the possible default of the retailer on the accounts payable into our model. The in-kind nature of trade credit is in line with the two-stage lottery method employed in this paper to capture the consequences of default on trade credit effectively. We find that financing capacity encourages the supplier to extend the credit term: a larger market demand rate prompts the supplier to extend a longer credit term, but a higher holding cost for the retailer shortens the length of the credit term received. More risk-averse suppliers tend to grant shorter term, but the impact of risk attitude is insignificant. Empirically, we find evidence supporting our main theoretical predictions by employing a panel sample of manufacturing companies covering 1998–2007 from the COMPUSTAT database.     

风险社会中的人口安全与和谐社会的构建

本文论述了风险社会、人口安全与构建和谐社会之间的内在联系,认为风险社会的来临和人口风险的增加引发了人们对人口安全问题的关注。人口安全问题在风险社会的视域中具备了全新的理论内涵,作为风险社会的有机构成,它包括了人口规模、人口结构、人口素质与人口健康、人口分布与人口迁移等多个方面的内容。在风险社会中规避人口风险、维护人口安全,对构建社会主义和谐社会有着至关重要的意义。     

流动人口信息流管理模式初探

流动人口与常住人口相比,因其居无定所、劳无定职、行无定踪而成为社会管理的难点人群,有些甚至是盲点人群,人口和计划生育管理也概莫能外.流动人口管理难,似乎已成为难以解题的计划生育管理"哥德巴赫猜想".笔者基于近年在开发、应用和监控全国流动人口计划生育信息交换平台的经验,试图通过设计流动人口信息流管理的模式,为全国实现流动人口计划生育以现居住地管理为主和"一盘棋"管理的目标提供优化信息交换平台模式的解决方案.