A reconstruction of Jeffrey's notion of ratifiability in terms of counterfactual beliefs

We formalize Jeffrey's (1983) notion of ratifiability and show that the resulting formal structure can be obtained more directly by means of a theory of counterfactual beliefs. One implication is that, under the appropriate formalizations, together with certain restrictions on beliefs, Bayesian decision theory and causal decision theory coincide.     

Call for Papers Special Issues of Social Indicators Research on the Quality of Life in Korea

Social Indicators Research -     

Parenting and child experiences in shelter: A qualitative study exploring the effect of homelessness on the parent–child relationship

Depending on the data source, between half a million and 2.48 million children in families experience homelessness each year in the United States. Recent data suggest that approximately half of all homeless children are under the age of 6. A considerable body of quantitative research has documented the occurrence of poor outcomes associated with childhood homelessness in the domains of social–emotional development, physical and behavioral health, academic achievement, and family stability. This qualitative study presents results from 19 interviewers with formerly homeless parents reflecting upon how the experience of being homeless affected their young children and their ability to parent. Findings are contextualized within an attachment perspective. Parental reported effects included confusion, sadness, anxiety or depression, withdrawal, lack of appetite, aggression, and disregard for authority. Parents also talked about the disempowering experience of parenting while in shelter. Unexpectedly, parents of infants said their children were not affected by homelessness, and few parents identified the need for mental health services for their children. The experiences of parents with whom we spoke provide invaluable insight into what shelter staff, social service agencies, philanthropy, policymakers, and researchers can do to support and respect the parent–child relationship in families who are experiencing homelessness.     

Black-white differentials in infant mortality in the south, 1940–1970

Demography - This paper examines the trends and variations in the black-white differentials in infant mortality in ten selected Southern states during the 1940–1970 period. The patterns...     

The role of impulsivity,cognitive bias,and reasoned action in understanding college student gambling

Factors related to gambling behavior among college students in the USA are examined by applying the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and incorporating the concepts of impulsivity and cognitive bias. This study uses a broader approach to analyze gambling behavior by including financial behavior variables using ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regressions. The survey data were collected through a self-administered online questionnaire of college students from 19 colleges and universities in the fall of 2010. With a sample of 5024 college students, a majority of the respondents (84.45%) in this study report that they did not gamble in the last 30 days. The results of multivariate analysis indicate that gambling is related to attitudes toward gambling, cognitive bias toward gambling, subjective norms of family members regarding financial behavior, and impulsivity. Underestimation of financial behavior (cognitive bias toward financial behavior) was found to be associated with only gambling frequency but not gambling propensity.     

Testing for a unit root in an arima(p,1,0) signal observed with ma(q) noise

An ARIMA(p,1,0) signal disturbed by MA(q) noise is an ARIMA(p,1, p+q+1) process restricted by nonlinear constraints on parameters. For this model with a unit root the restricted maximum likelihood estimator (RMLE) of the unit root is strongly consistent and it has the same limiting distribution as the ordinary least squares estimator of the unit root in an AR(1) model tabulated by Dickey and Fuller (1979). A modified RMLE is proposed which has the same limiting properties as the RMLE and is computationally much simpler. Simulation results show that our unit root tests based on the modified RMLE perform very well for small samples and compare favorably with the Said and Dickey (1985) tests with respect to both sizes and powers. An illustrative example from sample survey is given.     

中国医药保健卫生企业采用整合营销传播的战略线索

面对激烈的市场竞争,中国医药保健卫生企业要想立于不败之地,唯有探索发展战略的线索。只有保证核心力量,才可能从容应对各种考验和挑战。为此,本研究在整合营销传播理论基础上提出一些中国医药保健卫生企业的战略思路。本研究由四部分构成:第一部分是整合营销传播理论的介绍;第二部分是中国医药保健卫生企业的整合营销传播战略分析;第三部分是中国医药保健卫生企业整合营销传播战略模型的设计;第四部分是结论与发展方向。     

Disclosures and Asset Returns

Public information in financial markets often arrives through the disclosures of interested parties who have a material interest in the reactions of the market to the new information. When the strategic interaction between the sender and the receiver is formalized as a disclosure game with verifiable reports, equilibrium prices can be given a simple characterization in terms of the concatenation of binomial pricing trees. There are a number of empirical implications. The theory predicts that the return variance following a poor disclosed outcome is higher than it would have been if the disclosed outcome were good. Also, when investors are risk averse, this leads to negative serial correlation of asset returns. Other points of contact with the empirical literature are discussed.