An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

论古美关系发展历程

古巴自革命胜利之日起,即受到了美国的封锁打压.但与美国咫尺之隔的古巴,却一直不甘妥协,从而使古巴的社会主义制度得以生存,并取得了一定的进展.     

对赫哲族聚居区"十五"期间经济和社会发展的调查分析

本文作者在"十五"期间深入赫哲族聚居区,对赫哲族人民在"十五"期间经济和社会生活各方面所取得的成就进行了调查和分析,向我们展示了赫哲族在"十五"期间全面建设小康社会取得的新成就.     

论我国行政诉讼调解的理论革新

行政诉讼调解长期以来一直是一个莫衷一是的热点问题。在行政诉讼法即将修改之际,探讨这一问题具有重要的现实意义。文章总结了现行行政诉讼不适用调解原则的成因、困境,指出我国现行行政诉讼不适用调解原则陷入困境的理论误导的结果,并结合域外相关制度的经验,得出行政诉讼调解不仅是一种国际经验,而且应当奠定在服务行政理论基础之上才能得到正确的说明。     

Parental stress and parenting in Chinese immigrant families: The mediating role of social support

As the population of Chinese immigrants has been growing rapidly in the United States, it has been understudied on the parenting behaviours as well as the roles parental stress and social support playing in parenting in this group. This study investigated whether parental stress was associated with parenting and whether this relationship was mediated by social support in a sample of 255 Chinese immigrant parents from the Survey of Asian American Families in New York City. Regression analyses with a rich array of control variables found that a higher level of parental stress and the presence of one or more stressors such as unemployment, low income, and low education were positively associated with the use of harsh discipline and parent–child conflicts and negatively associated with positive parenting practices. Social support functioned as a significant mediator in the relationships between parental stress and positive parenting practices but not in the relationships of parental stress with parent–child conflict or the use of harsh discipline.     

论盛唐诗人的时间忧患意识

“忧患意识”是中国古代士大夫普遍存在的心理状态,“时间忧患”成为中国诗歌中一个独特的主题。尤其是盛唐时期的文人,处在开明盛世之下,有着强烈的入世思想。当理想不得实现时,就会发出人生短暂的哀叹。通过分析孟浩然、王维、李白等盛唐诗人的作品,并与魏晋诗人的忧患意识作对比,发现,盛唐诗人的这种忧患意识是时代风貌的产物,具有更多的理性思考和进取精神。     

中国农村社区招赘婚姻研究——松滋县婚姻模式深访和个访分析

本文利用湖北省松滋县婚姻模式深访和个访的调查数据与资料 ,较系统地研究了中国农村汉族地区招赘婚姻的历史、现状与未来 ,以定性方法分析了当地招赘婚姻的成因、内容、特点和对家庭关系和家庭养老的影响 ,探讨了它的社会意义     

THE CREDIT‐CHANNEL TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND THE NONLINEAR GROWTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF INFLATION AND TAXES

With the credit‐channel effect driven by the central bank's open market operations, this paper's model easily gives rise to the nonlinear inflation‐growth nexus, which is evidenced by a number of cross‐country empirical studies. The threshold level of the inflation rate is found to be lower when tax rates are higher. The presence of the credit‐channel effect also provides the rationale for setting positive (and smaller than 1) tax rates on consumption, labor income, and capital income. The optimal tax rates rise as the inflation target declines. Under a fiscal policy rule where labor and capital income taxes move proportionally to each other, the optimal capital income tax rate could be higher than the optimal labor income tax rate. Under a sufficiently large central bank balance sheet, the credit‐channel effect will be so weak that inflation and all kinds of taxes are growth and welfare repressing. This provides a rationale for central banks that have implemented quantitative easing policies to shrink their balance sheets. (JEL E58, E62, O42)     

A study of quadratic inference functions with alternative weighting matrices

Quadratic inference function (QIF) is an alternative methodology to the popular generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, it does not involve direct estimation of the correlation parameter, and thus remains optimal even if the working correlation structure is misspecified. The idea is to represent the inverse of the working correlation matrix by a linear combination of some basis matrices. In this article, we present a modification of QIF with a robust variance estimator of the extended score function. Theoretical and numerical results show that the modified QIF attains better efficiency and achieves better small sample performance than the original QIF method.