A Spatiotemporal Model for Pollutant Concentrations

ABSTRACT

Contamination of underground water tables can be characterized by measurements that are mixtures of short-term spiking, long-term decline, and steady-state variations in contaminant levels. Classical statistical models often fail to capture the changes in contaminant flow because they rely on fitting smooth spatial and temporal functions across the region, smooth functions that might not comprehensively characterize contaminant change. In this article, a more comprehensive approach is presented for modeling such processes. This approach uses a new class of spatiotemporal models that can characterize a broad range of environmental processes. It also effectively uses Bayesian hierarchical model fitting and a novel use of near neighbors to model contamination in an underground water table.     

Voting barriers and solutions: the experiences of people with disabilities during the Dutch national election in 2017

Exercising the right to vote at elections is frequently denied to people with disabilities. In this study, we examined the voting behaviour of individuals with physical or learning impairments and the barriers they encountered during the national elections in 2017 in the Netherlands. A survey design was chosen to allow large-scale questioning of both target groups. Over 90% of people with physical impairments voted and respondents found that voting was accessible. Voter turnout among people with learning impairments was much lower (46%). They experienced difficulty to prepare themselves and at the polling station. The Netherlands seems well on the way to achieving an inclusive environment for people with physical impairments. Recommendations are given about accessibility for all and for exploring alternative methods of voting such as proxy voting and tailoring information and procedures to the needs of people with learning impairments.     

Permutation Methods for Comparing the Accuracy of Nested Prediction Models in Survival Analysis

When making patient-specific prediction, it is important to compare prediction models to evaluate the gain in prediction accuracy for including additional covariates. We propose two statistical testing methods, the complete data permutation (CDP) and the permutation cross-validation (PCV) for comparing prediction models. We simulate clinical trial settings extensively and show that both methods are robust and achieve almost correct test sizes; the methods have comparable power in moderate to large sample situations, while the CDP is more efficient in computation. The methods are also applied to ovarian cancer clinical trial data.     

Americans and Iraq,twelve years apart: Comparing support for the US wars in Iraq

Significant differences exist in Americans’ support for force between the 1991 Persian Gulf War and 2003 Iraq War, even when holding all demographic variables constant. Nearly every group decreased their support from 1991 to 2003, including men and women, Whites and racial minorities, people with high school degrees or higher, nearly all age categories, and Democrat and Independent affiliated individuals. When examining potential causes for decreased support in the 2003 Iraq War, the “nature of the conflict” presents the strongest argument and evidence. The Persian Gulf War aimed to force the Iraqi army from Kuwait, while the Iraq War was aimed at changing the governmental regime of Iraq. The latter conflict was less socially acceptable than the former to Americans. These differences between the conflicts are the best explanation for the change in support, while other explanations, including the changing composition of the population and a less pro-military populace, are insufficient.     

Inconsistent Vocational Personalities: A Multiple-Case Study of Commonalities and Characteristics

To extend Holland's (1997) theoretical proposition regarding inconsistency in vocational personality patterns, this study examined how individuals conceptualize the origin, experience, development, and career implications of their incongruent interests. A semistructured interview was conducted with 10 participants who displayed an inconsistent vocational personality pattern. Cross-case analysis (Stake, 2006) yielded 17 themes organized into five conceptual clusters. In terms of family of origin, inconsistent personality patterns occurred more frequently among oldest or only children with incongruent or inconsistent parents who provided weak guiding lines. From an interpersonal perspective, participants described themselves as outsiders who were shy, isolated, and unpopular. From an intrapersonal perspective, they may feel odd, inferior, and different and may seek comfort by either withdrawing into media or placing themselves in a safe space. The results provide a basis for formulating three hypotheses for future empirical research with large and diverse samples.     

Voluntary and involuntary driving cessation in later life

This study explores the decision-making process of driving cessation in later life, with a focus on voluntariness. The sample included 83 former drivers from the Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area Study. A majority of participants (83%) reportedly stopped driving by their own decision. However, many voluntary driving retirees reported external factors such as financial difficulty, anxiety about driving, or lack of access to a car as main reasons for driving cessation. These findings imply that distinction between voluntary and involuntary driving cessation is ambiguous and that factors beyond health status, including financial strain, play a role in the transition to non-driving.     

Two‐generation preschool programme: immediate and 7‐year‐old outcomes for low‐income children and their parents

Preschool children living in low‐income families are at increased risk for poor outcomes; early intervention programmes mitigate these risks. While there is considerable evidence of the effectiveness of centre‐based programmes in other jurisdictions, there is limited research about Canadian programmes, specifically programmes that include children and parents. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a single‐site, two‐generation preschool demonstration programme for low‐income families in Canada. A single group, pre‐test (programme intake) /post‐test (programme exit) design with a 7‐year‐old follow‐up was used. Between intake and exit, significant improvements in receptive language and global development were found among the children, and significant improvements in self‐esteem, use of community resources, parenting stress and risk for child maltreatment were found among the parents. These positive improvements were sustained until the children were 7 years old. Public investment in two‐generation preschool programmes may mitigate risks for suboptimal child development and improve parental psychosocial outcomes.     

Creating aging-enriched social work education:a process of curricular and organizational change

The CSWE Geriatric Enrichment in Social Work Education Project, funded by the John A. Hartford foundation, aimed to change curricula and organizational structure in 67 GeroRich projects so that all students would graduate with foundation knowledge and skills to work effectively with older adults and their families. The emphasis was on change processes to infuse and sustain gerontological competencies and curricular resources in foundation courses. This article presents lessons learned and strategies for engaging faculty, practitioners and students in the curriculum and organizational change process.     

Barriers to evidence based practice in accommodations for an aging workforce

According to a recent Government Accountability Office report, the number of workers over age 55 is projected to increase significantly over the next twenty years, with this demographic group projected to comprise as much as twenty percent of the workforce by 2015 [12]. Accommodating the functional limitations of a large number of older workers may prove challenging for employers; however, policies and practices shaped over the course of the next few decades could allow aging workers to remain a valuable part of the US economy. Given these considerations, it is useful from a public policy perspective to determine the degree to which employers are currently addressing the accommodation needs of older workers. This paper presents the results of a study that attempted to determine the extent to which a sample of Fortune 500 employers was currently accommodating older workers. The study's methodology (in particular, its use of semi-structured telephone interviews) is reevaluated and new options (such as anonymous online employer surveys) are considered for the valid and reliable collection of data on accommodations for older workers.