建设海峡西岸社会主义新农村的价值选择

建设社会主义新农村,本质是要缩小城乡差距,使农村在加速工业化、城市化的过程中能够与城市共同协调发展,使农民与城市居民一样享受等值不同质的现代生活。以等值不同质为取向增进农民福祉,是海峡西岸社会主义新农村建设的出发点和落脚点。建设海峡西岸社会主义新农村,要树立大资源观,以增量资源为杠杆激活存量资源,构建平等、互动、共福的新型城乡关系。     

苏州市转制企业计划生育工作的调查与建议

通过对苏州市３７９９ 家转制企业计划生育工作的调查，笔者认为：这些转制企业计划生育工作总的是好的或比较好的，但是，存在问题也不容忽视。一定要采取有力措施予以解决     

A joint-modeling approach to assess the impact of biomarker variability on the risk of developing clinical outcome

In some clinical trials and epidemiologic studies, investigators are interested in knowing whether the variability of a biomarker is independently predictive of clinical outcomes. This question is often addressed via a naïve approach where a sample-based estimate (e.g., standard deviation) is calculated as a surrogate for the “true” variability and then used in regression models as a covariate assumed to be free of measurement error. However, it is well known that the measurement error in covariates causes underestimation of the true association. The issue of underestimation can be substantial when the precision is low because of limited number of measures per subject. The joint analysis of survival data and longitudinal data enables one to account for the measurement error in longitudinal data and has received substantial attention in recent years. In this paper we propose a joint model to assess the predictive effect of biomarker variability. The joint model consists of two linked sub-models, a linear mixed model with patient-specific variance for longitudinal data and a full parametric Weibull distribution for survival data, and the association between two models is induced by a latent Gaussian process. Parameters in the joint model are estimated under Bayesian framework and implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with WinBUGS software. The method is illustrated in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study to assess whether the variability of intraocular pressure is an independent risk of primary open-angle glaucoma. The performance of the method is also assessed by simulation studies.     

从科学路径深入解读马克思主义的科学本质

对马克思主义科学本质的正确理解,是马克思主义理性信仰形成的条件,但目前教材与文献对此的解读不够充分。不能科学解读马克思主义的科学本质,已是马克思主义信仰教育的瓶颈。需要用科学哲学、科学知识社会学等理论揭示马克思主义的科学本质,并阐释其科学地位的社会形成。     

喇嘛教在喀左蒙古族地区的传播及其影响

16世纪以后,由于蒙古封建主的极力提倡和明、清统治者推行扶植及保护政策,使喇嘛教在蒙古地区得到广泛传播,喀左地区的喇嘛教在清代也兴盛起来,并对喀左蒙古族的社会政治、经济和思想文化等方面都产生了极其重大的影响。在政治上,喇嘛拥有各种特权,进而参与和左右蒙古的政治。在经济上、喇嘛教改变了萨满教戮杀牲畜的落后习俗,有益于牧业发展。在思想文化上,喇嘛教使蒙古人丧失了勇武的素质,最终堕入毁灭的深渊。     

Relations Among Intimate Partner Violence,Maternal Depressive Symptoms,and Maternal Parenting Behaviors

The authors examined the relations among intimate partner violence (IPV), maternal depressive symptoms, and maternal harsh intrusive parenting. Using a cross‐lagged, autoregressive path model, they sought to clarify the directionality of the relations among these 3 variables over the first 2 years of the child's life. The results indicated that, in this diverse sample of families living in predominantly low‐income rural communities (N = 705), higher levels of early IPV were associated with increases in maternal depressive symptoms, which in turn were associated with increases in maternal harsh intrusive parenting behaviors. These findings suggest that interventions aimed at improving the parenting of women exposed to domestic violence may want to simultaneously target IPV and depressive symptomatology.     

“延龙图”区域人口发展战略研究

结合延边州及"延龙图"区域的自然、经济、社会发展情况,制定了"延龙图"区域未来20年的人口发展战略目标及主要任务,并提出促进"延龙图"区域人口增长的对策建议。通过动员社会资源的共同努力,促进人口资源的优化配置,来实现"延龙图"区域经济社会的全面协调可持续发展,将"延龙图"区域打造成吉林省东部地区的中心城市,确立它在东北亚图们江地区开发中的战略地位、在长白山旅游发展中的枢纽地位、在自治州体制改革中的示范地位、在东北地区具有民族地域个性的特色地位。     

发展是西藏各族人民的共同选择

人类历史总是向前发展的,这是不以人们的意志为转移的.但是,发展并不是匀速前进的,在特定时段会有倒退,也会有跨越.西藏近百年的发展史就是一部两种制度两重天的活剧.     

民办本科院校发展前景广阔——朱玉新著《树人探究》序和跋

编者按:我国民办高等教育的发展是与改革开放同步而行的.改革开放30周年的到来,带来了对民办高等教育发展的全方位审视与展望.民办高等教育在过去的30年里可谓获得了突飞猛进的发展,并将在高等教育领域内发挥越来越重要的作用.长期以来,浙江树人大学校长朱玉教授坚持把工作、学习和研究结合在一起,坚持基于浙江树人大学发展实践的院校研究,先后出版了<树人实践><树人为本>为题的系列研究著作.值此改革开放30周年之际,朱玉教授出版<树人探究>一书,收录了他在浙江树人大学"提高质量、内涵发展"期间(2005年5月至2008年8月)的研究成果,得到厦门大学高等教育科学研究所潘懋元教授的高度赞赏,被其誉为民办高校"校本研究之佳作".潘懋元教授在"序言"中认为该书比前面两本书更成熟,处处闪烁着真知灼见,富有启示意义.为使读者了解概述的编写意图、基本内容及结构特色,现特将潘懋元教授所写的序及作者所写的后记转载如下,以广传布.     

基于马尔可夫链的中国与东盟五国农产品比较优势预测

比较优势的变化是决定国际贸易变动的关键因素。本文构建了基于马尔可夫链的比较优势预测模型,预测了我国和东盟农产品比较优势的变化趋势,对提高我国农产品比较优势地位的措施进行了有益探索。