东亚乡村振兴社会政策比较研究断想

作为典型的后发外生型现代化模式,东亚各国在努力追求和实现工业化、城市化的同时,也特别注意城乡社会的均衡发展,先后推出了系统的乡村振兴社会政策。 但在以往的研究中,学界一般都是循着国别路径展开的,多注重研究中日韩等国乡村振兴的相关政策提出及实施,而没有从比较社会政策的视角展开总体性比较研究。 故结合东亚主要国家工业化、城市化变迁进程中乡村振兴的社会政策实践,展开总体性的比较研究,深入挖掘政策出台的历史背景,分析解读政策文本的内涵,并注意政策文本之间的复杂关联,以实现对东亚乡村振兴社会政策的总体性研究提炼,为当下正在展开的中国乡村振兴战略提供有益的借鉴。     

元代军制"探马赤"中的色目本体及其历史功绩

元朝的建立结束了中国自唐朝灭亡之后长达数百年的分裂割据局面,重新确立起了大一统的国家框架.同时,元朝也是一个以漠北地区蒙古族为主导的少数民族政权,"骑射武功"是其能够在短时间内统合力量并迅速崛起的关键.因此有元一代,对于军事本身及其建制的重视与拓展始终未曾间断,而"探马赤"亦是其中的重要组成部分.传统意义上的"探马赤"只有"五投下"和"七部"两类族(部)属之分,但事实上自元朝初期伊始,以色目军人为主体的"西域探马赤"业已成雏形并逐渐发展壮大,开始成为"探马赤"军制类别中的第三体例.在元朝近百年的历史中,"探马赤"特别是由色目官兵所组成的"西域探马赤",一方面为中央政府戍守、屯垦广袤的西北边陲,另一方面则奉元廷之命平定国境内外的反叛.既使得陕甘一带及新疆天山南北地区自唐以后再次得到大规模开发,成为中央政府有效管辖之地,又在一定程度上巩固了中国作为统一多民族国家的根基,具有十分积极的历史意义.故对"探马赤"中的回族本体及其历史功绩进行深入性的探索研究,将会有助于元代军制学、边疆学等方面的推进,也可视作对现阶段"中华民族共同体"理论的侧翼性论证与补充,兼具学理与实际上的双重效应.     

大学生常见心理问题特点及对策研究

大学阶段是一个人身心成长发育的关键时期,健康的心理是大学生接受科学文化知识的重要前提。然而,由于社会、家庭以及大学生个体等因素的影响,致使他们出现了各种不同程度的心理问题。其特点是：政治价值观复杂多元,信仰趋向自由化和多元化,人生价值趋向迷茫、功利思想严重,职业兴趣不明确,而在择偶问题上则较成熟。解决这些问题,要发挥思想政治理论课的主渠道作用进行教育引导,同时应在高校的马克思主义学院设立心理咨询中心,分阶段进行心理健康教育,以提高大学生的心理健康水平。     

Adaptive modeling of the human-environment relationship applied to estimation of the population carrying capacity in an earthquake zone

Natural catastrophes such as earthquakes can, in addition to causing loss of life, disrupt the urbanization process through the need for forced population redistribution and the modification of resource and environmental carrying capacity. The population carrying capacity (PCC) of an altered environment following an earthquake is a crucial determinant in the relocation of displaced persons. We use data adaptive methods to model the correlation between the physical environment and human population density in estimating PCC in areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Comparing actual population distributions with ideal population distributions allows for the identification of villages where population exceeds PCC, or conversely, areas where the environment can support a higher population. Such a comparison can provide the basis for a relocation plan, a critical element of post-catastrophe policy-making.     

The Longitudinal Relationships Between Basic Psychological Needs Satisfaction at School and School-Related Subjective Well-Being in Adolescents

Situated within a positive psychology perspective, this study aimed at examining the nature and directionality of longitudinal relationships between basic psychological needs satisfaction at school and adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. A total of 576 students (40.5 male and 36.8 % students in junior high school) completed measures of adolescent students’ basic psychological needs at school and school-related subjective well-being at two time points, 6 weeks apart. Cross-lagged structural equation modeling showed significant bidirectional longitudinal relationships between autonomy, relatedness, and competence needs satisfaction and school satisfaction. Furthermore, significant bidirectional relationships were observed between competence need satisfaction and positive affect in school. The findings provided important evidence of the roles of adolescents’ different types of needs satisfaction, experienced specifically during school, in adolescents’ school-related subjective well-being. The findings also helped extend the positive psychology perspective to the relatively neglected context of education.     

Embodied versus Disembodied Information: How Online Artifacts Influence Offline Interpersonal Interactions

This article examines how the sheer volume of personal information recorded and searchable online (online artifacts) has transformed the situated activity system central to Goffman's dramaturgical theories. In‐depth interviews reveal that individuals believe disembodied information based on online artifacts is a more accurate representation of others than embodied information from spatially and temporally bounded face‐to‐face (FTF) processes because they represent how others have behaved over time and are attested by their online contacts. However, the n‐adic structure of online interaction leads to mismatched expectations about whether disembodied information is taken into account during FTF encounters, and consequently can result in embarrassment.     

Bayesian bridge-randomized penalized quantile regression estimation for linear regression model with AP(q) perturbation

Bridge penalized regression has many desirable statistical properties such as unbiasedness, sparseness as well as ‘oracle’. In Bayesian framework, bridge regularized penalty can be implemented based on generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) prior. In this paper, we incorporate Bayesian bridge-randomized penalty and its adaptive version into the quantile regression (QR) models with autoregressive perturbations to conduct Bayesian penalization estimation. Employing the working likelihood of the asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) perturbations, the Bayesian joint hierarchical models are established. Based on the mixture representations of the ALD and generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) priors of coefficients, the hybrid algorithms based on Gibbs sampler and Metropolis-Hasting sampler are provided to conduct fully Bayesian posterior estimation. Finally, the proposed Bayesian procedures are illustrated by some simulation examples and applied to a real data application of the electricity consumption.     

Diagnostics for quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models (QLNMs) are an extension of generalized linear model and include a widen class of models as special cases. This article investigates some diagnostic methods in QLNMs. An equivalency between a case-deletion model and a mean-shift outlier model in QLNM is established. Two simulation study and a real dataset are used to illustrate the proposed diagnostic methods.     

多重假设检验中参数估计问题研究

在多重假设检验中,真正原假设的个数m0是未知的,但是它有着很重要的影响,因此,它在最近的统计文献中备受关注.文章综述了三种主要的估计方法:最低斜率法、三次样条法、均值估计方法.然后将上述三种方法结合起来,提出了新的估计方法:均值三次样条法,并主要研究了其在微阵列数据上的应用.大量的模拟研究表明,和其他方法相比,新的估计方法具有较小的偏差和标准差.最后利用真实数据来对估计方法进行评估,并找出了差异表达性基因.模拟和实际数据表明此方法具有显著性提高.     

基于改进的聚类和关联规则挖掘的学生成绩分析

针对北京邮电大学通信工程专业学生的学习状况分析和培养方案的改进需求,提出一种基于改进的聚类和关联规则挖掘的成绩分析方法,借助数据挖掘手段对学生在校期间的各课程成绩进行相关性分析.以2009-2011级通信工程专业本科生的课程成绩作为样本数据,应用该挖掘方法得到课程之间的关联规则网络,从而分析课程间的衔接关系、判断课程的重要程度以及评价各课程的教学效果.另外,以2011级学生的高考成绩数据作为样本,挖掘高考成绩与大学成绩间的关联规则,分析学生入学前成绩对入学后表现的影响.应用本文所述方法得到的挖掘结果能够为教学方案的设计和改进提供一定参考信息,对提高学生学习质量具有良好作用.