Analysis of Competing Risks by Using Bayesian Smoothing

We consider the competing risks set-up. In many practical situations, the conditional probability of the cause of failure given the failure time is of direct interest. We propose to model the competing risks by the overall hazard rate and the conditional probabilities rather than the cause-specific hazards. We adopt a Bayesian smoothing approach for both quantities of interest. Illustrations are given at the end.     

The success of protest groups: Multivariate analyses

This paper reviews earlier research and presents new analytical findings regarding the outcomes of social movements. Using the resource mobilization/management approach, empirical propositions that seek to explain protest group success or failure are tested. Based upon data gathered from a sample of 53 US protest groups, the causal models explained the majority of the variance in degree of success between these groups. Our findings indicate that protest groups which threaten to replace or destroy established groups are usually unsuccessful, and those having many strong alliances tend to be more successful than groups fighting alone. The use of violence does not greatly aid the prediction of group outcome because of the unpredictable, ambivalent reaction to violence by established groups.     

Care of the Elderly—A Project,a Protest,a Survey and a Plan

Rehousing of elderly people in Australia has generally not been preceded by research into the kind of assistance that is necessary. An example is given of how an attempt was made to discover the needs of the elderly disabled in a small country community. Assessment by observation of people at home revealed the need for assistance for them to stay where they were. Home Care organized from the district hospital is often a more appropriate answer to this problem than the building of expensive and unnecessary institutions.     

Bereavement: the Contribution of Phenomenological and Existential Analysis to a Greater Understanding of the Problem

Summary Theoretical approaches to grief and mourning have emphasizedthe instinctual and biological elements of a person's responseto bereavement. The behaviour of bereaved individuals has thereforebeen interpreted on the basis of these theoretical models. Thispaper argues that an appreciation of the social context in whichbereavement occurs leads to a fuller understanding of observedresponses in such a situation. It thus emphasizes the socialnature of individuals rather than their biological make-up andprovides a theoretical frame of reference in terms of whichthis may be understood. Such an analysis also has implicationsfor the kind of help which is seen to be appropriate to theneeds of bereaved people. It is suggested that social workersshould develop a greater understanding of this approach andthat, on the basis of this, they would then have a particularrole to play in relation to this area of need     

Medical Students' Attitudes and Opinions About Human Sexual Behaviour

In their professional capacities doctors are often confronted with clients who present with psycho-sexual problems. At the present time Australian medical students are provided with very little instruction in the areas of human sexual behaviour. This paper examines the attitudes and amount of information possessed by a cohort of second year medical students compared with groups of first and fifth year students; these attitudes and levels of information are then related to students' sex, religious affiliation, strength of religious conviction, where this is seen to be relevant. It is shown that some areas of ignorance exist. The paper concludes by outlining some aspects relevant to courses in human sexual behaviour.     

A gender comparison of HIV and drug use across the rural-urban continuum

Despite the central role of women drug users in escalating AIDS statistics, there is still a limited number of studies that examine the roles of gender and drug use type in HIV seroprevalence. This lacuna in the research literature has led to significant gaps in researchers' understanding of how and to what extent women may differ in their drug-using and HIV risk behaviors compared to their better-studied male counterparts. This study, derived from a sample of 3,555 out-of-treatment drug users residing in three South Florida urban and rural communities, attempts to compare the drug usage and needle and sexual risk behaviors of male and female drug users that put them at risk for HIV infection. The overall seropositivity rate for women drug users was 26.5% compared to 19.5% for their male counterparts. Results of multivariate analyses indicate that females compared to males were 1.4 times more likely to be HIV seropositive. Risk behaviors associated with this elevated seropositivity include living arrangements, homeless status, drug use, sexual trading behaviors, and history of STDs. Furthermore, there was a strong linear relationship between drug use type and HIV seroprevalence among women drug users. Compared to those who were neither crack smokers nor injectors of illicit drugs, those who were crack smokers only were 2 times more likely to be HIV seropositive, while those who were both crack smokers and injectors were 5 times more likely to be HIV seropositive, and those who were injectors only were 6 times more likely to be HIV seropositive. These findings indicate that among women, drug abuse and its associated risk behaviors, increase the vulnerability of this population for HIV and thus render them an extremely important priority population on which to focus HIV prevention and public health efforts and programs.     

Communicating future water needs to an at-risk population: lessons learned following defeat of the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project in San Antonio,Texas

San Antonio, Texas, the seventh largest city in the United States, has experienced steady population growth, since the “boom” of the 1960s. Projected water shortages due to this growth were realized as early as the 1970s by city leaders and south-central Texas regional development decision makers. To reduce dependence on the already over-taxed, Edwards aquifer, a solution, the Applewhite Dam and Reservoir Project, was developed with wide acceptance by federal, state, and city leaders who regarded the project as a necessary measure for regional growth and development. However, opposition by taxpayer and environmental groups led to referendums of 1991 and 1994 in which voters blocked construction of the dam and reservoir leaving the city with limited options for water provision. This case study investigated the factors which led to a clear mismatch in communication between decision makers—those who were aware of the actual and quantifiable risk to the region in terms of reduced water supplies—and the general public, a population that did not have complete and/or adequate knowledge of their actual risk regarding future water shortages, nor, of solutions being developed, such as the Applewhite project. The findings from this case study indicate that when municipal leadership fails to adequately communicate risk regarding resource shortage to an affected public, as well as, openly planned solutions, that voters are likely to underestimate future impacts of water shortages, heed last-minute opposition, and reject long-standing, publicly proposed projects. The intent of this research is not to support either side in the Applewhite controversy, but to shed perspective on the process of adequately and effectively communicating future water needs to an at-risk population. Decision makers in cities across the United States who are faced with solving problems of limited resources needed by a large populace may be informed by the results of this research.