Inference and Missing Data: Asymptotic Results

In Rubin (1976) the missing at random (MAR) and missing completely at random (MCAR) conditions are discussed. It is concluded that the MAR condition allows one to ignore the missing data mechanism when doing likelihood or Bayesian inference but also that the stronger MCAR condition is in some sense the weakest generally sufficient condition allowing (conditional) frequentist inference while ignoring the missing data mechanism. In this paper it is shown that (a slightly strengthened version of) the MAR condition is sufficient to yield ordinary large sample results for estimators and test statistics and thus may be used for (asymptotic) frequentist inference.     

Effectiveness of a school-based backpack health promotion program: Backpack Intelligence

A prominent school health issue in the United States is the use of backpacks, however, there is a paucity of literature on the effectiveness of backpack safety programs. The purpose of this paper is to describe a school-based backpack health promotion program: Backpack Intelligence, report on its effectiveness, and suggest avenues for future research. Three-hundred-seventy-two 6th and 7th grade students participated in the program which was integrated into their physical education curriculum. Of those students, 242 completed post-education surveys to assess its effectiveness. Pre-education, 44% reported that their backpack was uncomfortable to carry, and 61% reported two or more warning signs that their backpack was too heavy. Only 57% wore their backpack properly and less than half organized the contents in their backpack correctly. Post-education, 63% reported the program worthwhile. Forty-two percent changed the way they used their backpack, and 93% felt knowledgeable about backpack safety, a 24% increase. Both grade and gender differences were found. Areas identified in the literature as fruitful for future research were suggested. Until we have definitive research on the link between backpack use and injury, interventions may be imperfect, but as a society we are compelled to safeguard the health of our children.     

In search of excellence: a case study of the first excellence initiative of Germany

As higher education policies are often associated with intense public spending, the evaluation and performance measurement of respective initiatives becomes increasingly crucial. An extensive and fruitful strand of literature has dealt with the assessment of university performance, yet mainly focused on point-in-time rather than period-of-time examinations. This study investigates the effects of Germany’s first Excellence Initiative, a political measure aimed at building up world-class universities to be able to compete in the globalizing research world. Relying on both qualitative and quantitative measures, taking into account a 15-year period from 1998 to 2012, we analyze the selection process and how and whether the Excellence Initiative fulfilled its ambitious goals. Our results suggest that not the political initiative per se, i.e. the treatment, but the announcement of the treatment triggered diverging performance paths within the German higher education system, thus positively contributed to augmented research performance of the promoted universities. Based on these findings, we provide policy recommendations and avenues for future research.     

On linear aggregation of infinitely many finitely additive probability measures

Theory and Decision - We discuss Herzberg’s (Theory Decis 78(2):319–337, 2015) treatment of linear aggregation for profiles of infinitely many finitely additive probabilities and...     

Immigration and the low-cost housing crisis: The Los Angeles area's experience

Arrivals of new immigrants and the secondary migration of other immigrants to the Los Angeles area are estimated to be as many as 180,000 each year in the 1980s. The Southern California Association of Governments found three-quarters of the immigrants were low-income minorities who are more likely to live in overcrowded enclaves and pay disproportionately high rents. Other data suggest that immigrants—many of them undocumented and Hispanic—are both victims of and contributors to the housing crisis.Although aggravated by immigration, Los Angeles' low-cost housing ills stem from broader national, social and economic trends: gentrification and other commercial conversion of low-cost housing, stagnating federal housing aid, and diminished tax and loan incentives. Skyrocketing costs have dropped the rate of home ownership well below the national average, forcing more people to rent. Condominium conversions, costly safety regulations, rent controls and successful no-growth movements also have contributed to Los Angeles' housing crisis.     

Experiments in modelling recent Danish fertility curves

This paper reports the outcome of an exercise in curve fitting to annual sets of Danish age-specific fertility rates for the years 1962 to 1971 by means of least squares. Functions fitted were a cubic spline, the Hadwiger and Coale-Trussell functions, the gamma and beta densities, two versions of a polynomial, and two of Brass's relational procedures, as well as the Gompertz curve. The spline function fitted all curves far better than any of the others. The Coale-Trussell procedure and gamma density were about equal, followed by the Hadwiger function. All of these functions fit the data well. One of the polynomials fit reasonably well, but the rest of the functions were less accurate.     

Declines in Health and Support Between Parents and Adult Children: Insights from Diabetes

Population Research and Policy Review - We investigate associations between a diabetes diagnosis and financial and instrumental transfers between parents and adult children. Data are from...     

Strategic planning and consensus building for external relations— Five cases

This article examines relationships between strategic planning and consensus building with external groups and constituencies. Methods for consensus building with external groups during strategic planning and implementation are discussed and five cases from different economic and political sectors are examined in conjunction with the principles considered.     

Success or failure? Interpreting and understanding the impact of interventions in four similar worksites

While many studies of interventions have focused on their content and immediate effects, less research has focused on the processes that may explain these effects. The purpose of this study was to show how process evaluation can be used to interpret the results of an intervention study in four industrial canteens in Denmark. Two canteens acted as intervention groups and two as comparison groups. Effects were measured by surveys before and after interventions, and observations and interviews were conducted to provide an in-depth understanding of processes. Analyses were conducted based on the responses from 118 employees. Results showed, contrary to expectations, improvements in working conditions and well-being in one intervention group and in one comparison group, whereas no improvements were found in the two remaining groups. Data from the process evaluation enabled a meaningful interpretation of these results, raising the possibility programme failure rather than theory failure, and thereby constituting an example of how process evaluation can shed light over the factors that may influence outcomes in controlled intervention studies.     

How Do Individuals Apply Risk Information When Choosing Among Health Care Interventions?

A sample of 3,201 Danes was subjected to personal interviews in which they were asked to state their preferences for risk-reducing health care interventions based on information on absolute risk reduction (ARR) and relative risk reduction (RRR). The aim of the study was to measure the relative weighting of different types of risk information under various circumstances. The effect of presenting questions, and of explicitly formulating RRR, was analyzed. A preference for increases in RRR was demonstrated. There was a stronger inclination to choose the intervention that offered the highest RRR if RRR was explicitly stated. Individuals with more than 10 years of schooling also demonstrated a preference for increased ARR, but only when facing individually framed choices. In a social choice context, preferences for RRR remained intact, but the magnitude of ARR had no impact on choices. Results imply that social framing may induce a propensity to prefer interventions that target high-risk populations. Those respondents who had received < or = 10 years of schooling demonstrated preferences for RRR but not ARR, and no impact of social framing was observed.