怀疑主义哲学的政治意蕴

哲学中的理性主义被认为是造成现代极权主义政治的主要因素之一,哲学中的怀疑主义则自始就构成对理性主义的质疑和解构。与理性主义哲学的政治构想所呈现出的过于乐观、自信的情绪和志向不同,怀疑主义哲学则用一种相对悲观、谨慎的眼光打量人及其生活世界,洞察到人自身的幽暗本性、理性有限的缺陷以及生存多元的事实等,促使人类对自身及其生活的可能和局限具有更加清醒、真确的认识和理解。怀疑主义哲学因而包含了深刻的政治意蕴:对于任何试图依凭政治的方式创设所谓“完美至善”的人类生活世界的志向应抱有足够的警惕和审慎|在政治领域,人类适度而节制地表现自己作为人的能力实为一种明智之举。     

英语专业学士学位论文撰写的问题与对策

以138份英语专业学士学位论文为实证调查对象,分析了论文中出现的部分典型语言质量和结构思维问题,探讨了学位论文在培养合格毕业生过程中的重要作用。从本科培养的实际目标出发,区分了衡量学位论文质量的基本要求和更高要求,目的是为教育管理者制定科学、客观的论文评估标准和方法提供依据,为教师指导论文以及课堂教学提供启示,也为学生学习专业知识和撰写论文提供指导和帮助。     

美国贸易赤字的成因分析--兼论美元贬值的成效

从汇率、国内吸收以及直接投资与贸易的关系三个角度,利用美国1980-2004年的年度数据,通过简单OLS方法得出美国的进出口方程,可以揭示影响美国贸易逆差的主要原因,以及美元贬值对贸易逆差的影响,结果表明:(1)美元贬值主要通过影响出口而非进口改善贸易收支,但存在2年左右的滞后期,因此美元截至目前的贬值并没有明显改善贸易逆差;(2)从收入影响看,由于H-M收入非对称效应的存在,要减少贸易逆差需要美国相对国外更大幅度的紧缩;(3)从直接投资与贸易的关系看,美国对外直接投资转移了本国的供给,增大了美国进口。大规模减少美国贸易逆差不可能仅仅依靠美元汇率贬值,而是需要中长期的结构性调整,2006年美国贸易逆差将进一步扩大。     

Resilience for dropout students with depression in secondary schools in Hong Kong: parental attachment,hope and community integration

ABSTRACT

The objective of this qualitative research is to better understand school dropout students with depression in Hong Kong and how they overcome their adversities. Three girls and five boys participated in the study. The results showed that the Hong Kong cultural context was affected by school competition and the effect of mental health labelling. Jaspers’ phenomenology was utilised to understand the phenomenon of school dropout and depression. The findings illustrated the importance of secure parental attachment, substitute secure attachment, hope, supportive environment and community integration in helping dropout students with depression to overcome adversities. A resilience model for school dropouts with depression is proposed for improving professional practice in Hong Kong.     

What accounts for China''s trade balance dynamics?

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213–239] and Prasad [Prasad, E. S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588–606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade ‘imbalance’.     

论历史美的本质与特征

历史美是体现着人类历史发展的本质与规律,能够引起人们的愉悦情感的具体的社会历史形象。人类在历史活动中按照美的规律不断地显示和实现自己的本质力量,从而创造着历史美。历史美从本质上说是人的本质力量对象化的确证和展现。历史美可分为历史的自然美、社会美和艺术美三类。历史美具有的三个根本特征是广博性、可感知性、情感性。     

国外现代商业银行风险管理及其启示

风险管理是现代微观金融学的一大支柱,也是现代商业银行的核心功能之一,因此,在商业银行管理中具有极其重要的地位。现代商业银行风险管理体系包括:风险控制组织、风险度量技术、风险规避技术、全面风险管理模式。我国应借鉴国外经验,积极引进并应用先进风险度量方法和风险管理技术。     

An empirical Bayes approach to evaluation of results for a specific region in multiregional clinical trials

To accelerate the drug development process and shorten approval time, the design of multiregional clinical trials (MRCTs) incorporates subjects from many countries/regions around the world under the same protocol. After showing the overall efficacy of a drug in all global regions, one can also simultaneously evaluate the possibility of applying the overall trial results to all regions and subsequently support drug registration in each of them. In this paper, we focus on a specific region and establish a statistical criterion to assess the consistency between the specific region and overall results in an MRCT. More specifically, we treat each region in an MRCT as an independent clinical trial, and each perhaps has different treatment effect. We then construct the empirical prior information for the treatment effect for the specific region on the basis of all of the observed data from other regions. We will conclude similarity between the specific region and all regions if the posterior probability of deriving a positive treatment effect in the specific region is large, say 80%. Numerical examples illustrate applications of the proposed approach in different scenarios. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Normal tests for unit roots based on instrumental variable estimators

For estimating unit roots of autoregressive processes, we introduce a new instrumental variable (IV) method which discounts large values of regressors corresponding to the unit roots. Based on the IV estimator, we propose new unit root tests whose limiting null distributions are standard normal. Observation at time t is adjusted for mean recursively by the sample mean of observations up to the time t. The powers of the proposed tests are better than those of the Dickey–Fuller tests and are comparable to those of the tests based on the weighted symmetric estimator, which are known to have the best power against stationary alternatives.