Semiparametric multinomial logit models for analysing consumer choice behaviour

The multinomial logit model (MNL) is one of the most frequently used statistical models in marketing applications. It allows one to relate an unordered categorical response variable, for example representing the choice of a brand, to a vector of covariates such as the price of the brand or variables characterising the consumer. In its classical form, all covariates enter in strictly parametric, linear form into the utility function of the MNL model. In this paper, we introduce semiparametric extensions, where smooth effects of continuous covariates are modelled by penalised splines. A mixed model representation of these penalised splines is employed to obtain estimates of the corresponding smoothing parameters, leading to a fully automated estimation procedure. To validate semiparametric models against parametric models, we utilise different scoring rules as well as predicted market share and compare parametric and semiparametric approaches for a number of brand choice data sets.     

Testing monotonicity of pricing kernels

The behaviour of market agents has been extensively covered in the literature. Risk averse behaviour, described by Von Neumann and Morgenstern (Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1944) via a concave utility function, is considered to be a cornerstone of classical economics. Agents prefer a fixed profit over an uncertain choice with the same expected value, however, lately there has been a lot of discussion about the empirical evidence of such risk averse behaviour. Some authors have shown that there are regions where market utility functions are locally convex. In this paper we construct a test to verify uncertainty about the concavity of agents’ utility function by testing the monotonicity of empirical pricing kernels (EPKs). A monotonically decreasing EPK corresponds to a concave utility function while a not monotonically decreasing EPK means non-averse pattern on one or more intervals of the utility function. We investigate the EPKs for German DAX data for the years 2000, 2002 and 2004 and find evidence of non-concave utility functions: the null hypothesis of a monotonically decreasing pricing kernel is rejected for the data under consideration. The test is based on approximations of spacings through exponential random variables. In a simulation we investigate its performance and calculate the critical values (surface).     

Coaching für Führungskräfte in der Sozialen Arbeit – eine empirische Bedarfsanalyse

Coaching for executives in social work – an empirical study on consultancy needs. Executives in social work see themselves under special demands to balance the necessity to cope with public cost cutting requirements on the one hand and the design of organization structures which are to master future challenges on the other. In order to adapt coaching to the consultancy needs in this field, 96 executives working in social facilities in Thuringia were interviewed with a view to their potential consultancy needs, in particular with respect to their management functions and leadership challenges. This investigation showed a high degree of acceptance for coaching and differentiated consultancy needs in the dilemma between economization and quality oriented social work. A preliminary competence profile for coaching personnel is derived thereof.     

Neighbourhood effects on young people's future living conditions: Longitudinal findings from Sweden

Brännström L. Neighbourhood effects on young people's future living conditions: longitudinal findings from Sweden Using extensive longitudinal data for three Swedish birth cohorts born in the late 1970s, this study asked whether the social characteristics of the neighbourhood affect future outcomes that are important for their living conditions (labour‐market participation, economic hardship and criminality). To assist decision‐making about the balance between area‐targeted policies and wider form of social interventions at the individual level, this study also assessed whether the estimated impact of neighbourhood context has any bearing on the effect of preventive interventions directed at distressed neighbourhoods. The overall findings suggest that there is no clear evidence that the impact of neighbourhood varies sufficiently between the different types of neighbourhoods when selection and other confounding factors have been taken into consideration. It is concluded that the estimated effect of neighbourhood on youth development does not underpin area‐targeted policies directed at distressed neighbourhoods.     

Psychiatrisierung, Personifizierung und Personalisierung Zur personenzentrierten Beratung in Organisationen

Psychiatrization, personification and personalization. Individual-centred consulting in organizations The individual-centred consulting already achieved high popularity in supervision and coaching. Based on system theory this article aims to define the functions of individual-centred consulting approaches — such as supervision and consulting — for organizations. The function of person-centred consulting is less an obvious manifest function of human resources development and more an invisible one for isolating conflicts in special interactional contexts. The organization achieves protection of its structure through coaching and supervision, because it is able to isolate its conflicts interactionally and therefore these conflicts remain to a large extent without any consequences for the organization.     

Different development trends in working life and increasing occupational stress require new work environment strategies

This article has a two-fold purpose. First, it provides an explanation for the increase in occupational stress and sick leaves in Sweden in terms of the structural and organizational conditions. Second, it discusses measures that address these issues. Results of a study of 72 establishments are presented. The study investigated these establishments at both the organizational and individual employee level. It examined management strategies and working conditions in the establishments, classifying these elements by type of operations and company position. Both classifications point to differences in how work is organized and in working conditions. The results indicate that management technologies distribute risks between segments of the labor market, thus, also between different groups of the labor force. The developments were most favorable in high tech and knowledge-based operations. The situation was least favorable in labor-intensive services and, the most negative development had taken place in human services. Establishments serving as contractors appeared to organize their work differently from those with core activities. Working conditions in contracting businesses were particularly problematic. Since organizational changes work differently from one company to the next, there is a need to develop a variety of strategies for enacting change in the work environment. This article proposes strategies for different segments of the labor market. These strategies are adapted to the particular problems facing each segment.     

Differences in mortality by marital status in Finland from 1976 to 2000: analyses of changes in marital-status distributions, socio-demographic and household composition, and cause of death

Being currently not married is more common today than 25 years ago. Over this period relative differences in mortality by marital status have increased in several countries, mainly as a result of a sharp decline in mortality among the married. Using Finnish census data linked with death certificates, we show that these increases are not explained by the non-married population becoming more marginalized in socio-economic status or household composition. However, the increases in marital-status differences in mortality from accidental, violent, and alcohol-related causes of death in the 30-64 age group indicate that changes in the health-related behaviour of the non-married population may play a role. The public-health burden associated with not being married has also grown. At the end of the 1990s about 15 per cent of all deaths above the age of 30 would not have occurred if the non-married population had had the same age-specific mortality rates as the married population.