造假行为的传播与遏制——基于进化博弈模拟的研究

借鉴进化博弈的思想,一个新的模型建立起来用以模拟造假行为的传播过程,以期找到其广泛传播的路径,并寻找遏制的方法。模型赋予了个体学习的能力,结果显示惩罚程度对造假行为的传播没有影响,但抽查概率却是决定性的。为了提高查处的效率,"连带检查"机制被加入到模型中,即对造假者周围邻居进行检查并施以同样的惩罚。这种机制能够在抽取概率为26%时达到消除造假者的目的,相比之下,没有"连带检查"时必须把抽取概率提高到80%才能达到消除造假者的目的。     

Computation of an efficient and robust estimator in a semiparametric mixture model

In this article, we propose an efficient and robust estimation for the semiparametric mixture model that is a mixture of unknown location-shifted symmetric distributions. Our estimation is derived by minimizing the profile Hellinger distance (MPHD) between the model and a nonparametric density estimate. We propose a simple and efficient algorithm to find the proposed MPHD estimation. Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure and to compare it with other existing methods. Based on our empirical studies, the newly proposed procedure works very competitively compared to the existing methods for normal component cases and much better for non-normal component cases. More importantly, the proposed procedure is robust when the data are contaminated with outlying observations. A real data application is also provided to illustrate the proposed estimation procedure.     

完善中国高校内部教学评估机制的对策

完善高校教学评估机制,促进教学质量保障体系建设对于高校提高教学质量、深化教学改革、促进自主发展有着十分重要的意义。当前中国高校内部教学评估机制存在价值取向不当、评估主体单一、评估制度设计不科学、制度实施缺乏有效保障等突出问题。新形势下,高校应当积极借鉴国际经验,在明确学校办学目标和使命的基础上,以深化教学改革、加强内涵建设、提高教学质量、促进自主发展为目标,从评估规划、评估执行、评估控制、反馈处理等角度构建多位一体的教学评估机制,促进学校教学质量保障体系的建设。     

浅谈洁净手术部在医院基建工程中的特殊需求

随着现代医学的发展,洁净手术部成为各手术学科建设与发展的重要前提与支柱,对原有手术室功能进行改造势在必行。为了实现医院洁净手术部向信息化、智能化、集约化发展,从洁净手术部的选址、功能等方面介绍了当前省内部分二级以上医疗单位洁净手术室建设的新进展,总结近年来在洁净手术室规划、建设过程中的经验,为现代医院基建工程管理提供借鉴,保障医院医疗、教学、科研工作的顺利开展。     

Quality self-control and co-supervision mechanism of construction agent in public investment project in China

Public investment project (PIP) plays an important role in the China economy. In order to improve the project management performance of public projects, the government is searching for a scientific system to build a construction management supervision mode. This paper introduces the policy background and connotation of Agent Construction System (ACS). As a public investment construction management model, ACS, is gradually being incorporated into the legal framework, it is necessary to improve the construction agent supervision mechanism. This article analyzes the supervision mechanism of construction agent quality management under the principle of two-stage agent mode and establishes an agent quality self-control system and a government co-supervision system. These systems take the contract management as the core and the project quality objective as the guidance. These systems also consist of a two-dimensional framework of vertical self-control and horizontal supervision, which form a quality supervision mechanism. Based on Rough Set theory, the article proposes the idea of building an agent quality self-control and government co-supervision model, and illustrates it with a flow chart for building the model, which paves the way of quantitative research for the future.     

小学校长服务型领导对教师知识分享行为的影响研究

以山东省248名小学教师为有效样本，探讨了服务型领导、教师同事信任、情感承诺和教师知识分享行为之间的关系。研究结果显示：服务型领导与教师知识分享行为显著相关；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与知识分享行为之间的关系；教师同事信任部分居间联系了服务型领导与情感承诺之间的关系；情感承诺对服务型领导与知识分享行为关系的中介作用不显著。     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.     

Coordinate sampler: a non-reversible Gibbs-like MCMC sampler

We derive a novel non-reversible, continuous-time Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, called Coordinate Sampler, based on a piecewise deterministic Markov process, which is a variant of the Zigzag sampler of Bierkens et al. (Ann Stat 47(3):1288–1320, 2019). In addition to providing a theoretical validation for this new simulation algorithm, we show that the Markov chain it induces exhibits geometrical ergodicity convergence, for distributions whose tails decay at least as fast as an exponential distribution and at most as fast as a Gaussian distribution. Several numerical examples highlight that our coordinate sampler is more efficient than the Zigzag sampler, in terms of effective sample size.     

中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋 势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府“十四五”住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。     

德国科技创新体系的治理特征及实践启示

二战以后,德国在世界经济版图中一直占据重要位置,表现得稳健而强劲.有效的科技创新体系是德国经济社会可持续发展的关键成功因素.基于德国科技创新体系结构与功能的分析,从创新基础、治理结构、制度环境、国际科技合作、文化传统与社会环境等方面对德国科技创新体系的治理特征进行梳理和归纳,结合上海创新驱动发展的实践需求,研究德国科技创新体系对于上海创新发展的意义.