欧洲一体化进程中的"反一体化"分析

随着欧洲一体化的演进,反对、抵制一体化的思想与行动一直此起彼伏,反一体化伴随着一体化进程的始终."反一体化"活动主要在国家、政党和民众三个层次上展开,遍及政治、经济、社会文化等领域.其动因主要在于一体化进程对利益的重新分配所引发的复杂利益冲突和传统主权观、民族主义思想与一体化现实之间产生的尖锐对立."反一体化"对一体化进程产生了重要的影响.一方面它是一体化前进的阻力,另一方面又对一体化的发展产生了建设性的影响,使一体化能够相对稳定地向前迈进.反一体化将长期存在,并在欧洲一体化的未来发展中继续发挥自身的作用.     

自主创业——青年学生就业的重要途径

在未来一段时期,我国面临的就业压力依然很大.要解决大学生就业难,自主创业是一条重要途径.为此,青年学生要注意培养自我创业的意识和企业家精神.学校应建立学生创业长效机制,在课程设置等方面加大创业型学生培养力度.近几年来,政府及有关部门,正努力为青年学生自主创业创造良好的外部环境.     

自然审美作为美学的起点

自然是人类美感的最直接的教师,自然审美是人类审美活动的根部和源头。从自然美到社会美到艺术美,这是美学研究中一个不可逆转的思路。应重新认识自然美的特性并充分重视其独特价值,确立自然美在美学中的本源地位。     

和谐社会视野下的政府危机管理体制——由松花江水污染事件引发的思考

以和谐社会建设理论为视野,阐述了政府危机管理的含义,在此基础上审视了我国的立法现状,并分析了我国政府危机管理的缺陷,进而加以合理的制度设计,以提高政府的危机管理能力,确保和谐社会的实现。     

长三角地区能源效率及其影响因素分析

当前我国生产领域中的能源效率远低于发达国家,而长江三角洲是我国主要能耗地区,提高长三角地区的能源效率具有重要的现实意义。选取了长三角内部三省市14年的面板数据,利用能源强度评价长三角地区能源利用现状,通过实证分析长三角内部各省市的能源效率影响因素,结果发现产业结构和市场化程度对能源效率具有正面影响,外向化程度对能源结构具有负面影响。     

信息化视阈下海外学生党建工作的现状与创新模式研究 ——以南京邮电大学海外教育学院为例

随着我国各种形式的中外合作办学项目的数量和规模不断扩大,海外学生党员的比例也越来越大。规范化、科学化地做好海外学生党员和入党积极分子的教育和管理工作已是当前和今后高校基层党建工作的重要内容。通过规范海外学生党组织建设,以"网络党建"为平台,开拓海外学生党建工作新模式,从而增强海外学生的向心力和凝聚力。     

Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach.     

Hard thresholding regression

In this paper, we propose the hard thresholding regression (HTR) for estimating high‐dimensional sparse linear regression models. HTR uses a two‐stage convex algorithm to approximate the ?₀‐penalized regression: The first stage calculates a coarse initial estimator, and the second stage identifies the oracle estimator by borrowing information from the first one. Theoretically, the HTR estimator achieves the strong oracle property over a wide range of regularization parameters. Numerical examples and a real data example lend further support to our proposed methodology.     

Semiparametric sieve maximum likelihood estimation under cure model with partly interval censored and left truncated data for application to spontaneous abortion

Lifetime Data Analysis - This work was motivated by observational studies in pregnancy with spontaneous abortion (SAB) as outcome. Clearly some women experience the SAB event but the rest do not....