进攻——俄罗斯军事思想的主要特色

进攻与防御是军事上的两个基本方面,是矛盾的对立统一体.通常,弱者防御,强者进攻.但是,俄罗斯在自己并非始终强大的情况下,把进攻作为主要军事思想,获得最大利益,则是例外.沙皇时期军事进攻是侵略扩张和寻找出海口的需要,苏联时期军事进攻是巩固国防和追求霸权主义的需要,当代俄罗斯军事进攻则是实现强国梦和重登国际舞台的需要.     

我国金融市场结构:特征、问题及其成因

我国金融市场结构的现状主要是金融市场结构失衡的矛盾比较突出,制约了金融市场整体功能的充分发挥和核心竞争力的进一步提高,使得金融市场结构的广度、深度和强度效应没有得到应有的体现。当前我国金融市场结构存在的突出问题是:一方面,从静态上表现为各个金融子市场之间存在着严重的不平衡和各金融子市场内部组成要素结构的不均衡。另一方面,从动态上表现为我国金融市场结构存在着变迁上的被动适应性、升级上的低层次性以及创新上的外生性等问题。导致上述问题的原因主要有:一是偏重硬件建设,忽视观念的树立和金融市场基础设施的健全与完善;二是偏重数量扩张,忽视金融市场整体功能的发挥与协调;三是偏重局部利益,忽视金融市场全局利益的平衡与兼顾;四是偏重眼前发展,忽视金融市场可持续发展环境的培育与改善。     

Backfitting Random Varying-Coefficient Models with Time-Dependent Smoothing Covariates

Abstract.  In this paper, we propose a random varying-coefficient model for longitudinal data. This model is different from the standard varying-coefficient model in the sense that the time-varying coefficients are assumed to be subject-specific, and can be considered as realizations of stochastic processes. This modelling strategy allows us to employ powerful mixed-effects modelling techniques to efficiently incorporate the within-subject and between-subject variations in the estimators of time-varying coefficients. Thus, the subject-specific feature of longitudinal data is effectively considered in the proposed model. A backfitting algorithm is proposed to estimate the coefficient functions. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimation methods are more efficient in finite-sample performance compared with the standard local least squares method. An application to an AIDS clinical study is presented to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

“在人际关系中创造性转换的自我”何以可能？——评杜维明对儒家“哲学人类学”的“创造性阐释”

杜维明以哲学人类学的视角对儒学作出“创造性阐释”，把儒家哲学阐释为一种哲学的人类学。认为儒家的人性自我的实现除了需要内在主体在自我修养中不断深化外，还需要在外在人际关系的层层拓展与交互作用中进行创造性转换。但这种“创造性阐释”方法仅仅是观念的诠释，既不符合儒家思想的本意，也缺乏历史条件的支撑，更不可能在现代社会中实现创造性的转换。     

陈寅恪"合本子注"说新探

通过对"合本"与"子注"相关文献的考察,认为两者属于不同性质的概念。以"广义合本子注"为线索,进一步指出陈寅恪先生"合本子注"概念中的"子注"实为"子本"。"合本子注"的提法不够严谨,其含义实等同于"合本"。最后指出,陈氏从佛学而非经学中寻找《洛阳伽蓝记》等书的体裁渊源,与其对史料的重视有关。     

国籍法的现代发展趋势

20世纪以来,随着主权国家的大量兴起及跨国人员流动的愈趋频繁和复杂,国籍法的发展呈现出了以下四方面的态势:国内立法日益向单行法方向转化;国际渊源不断丰富,相关国际条约层出不穷;内容日趋先进,平等、非歧视观念逐渐得到贯彻;趋同化倾向正在不断加强。     

Kurtosis modelling by means of the J-transformation

Summary: The H–family of distributions or H–distributions, introduced by Tukey (1960; 1977), are generated by a single transformation of the standard normal distribution and allow for leptokurtosis represented by the parameter h. Alternatively, Haynes et al. (1997) generated leptokurtic distributions by applying the K–transformation to the normal distribution. In this study we propose a third transformation, the so–called J–transformation, and derive some properties of this transformation. Moreover, so-called elongation generating functions (EGFs) are introduced. By means of EGFs we are able to visualize the strength of tail elongation and to construct new transformations. Finally, we compare the three transformations towards their goodness–of–fit in the context of financial return data.     

Unequal at the Starting Line: Creating Participatory Inequalities across Generations and among Groups

We investigate how inequalities in political participation are shaped across generations by considering the influence of family background--in particular, parents' education and political involvement--on political participation. We pursue this issue, first, for individuals, investigating the effects of parental characteristics on the participatory profile of their offspring. Then, we use what we have learned to understand how group differences in political participation--between women and men and among Latinos, African Americans, and Anglo Whites--are rooted in the legacy of class and political background and in experiences throughout the life cycle.