Coherent mortality forecasting by the weighted multilevel functional principal component approach

In human mortality modelling, if a population consists of several subpopulations it can be desirable to model their mortality rates simultaneously while taking into account the heterogeneity among them. The mortality forecasting methods tend to result in divergent forecasts for subpopulations when independence is assumed. However, under closely related social, economic and biological backgrounds, mortality patterns of these subpopulations are expected to be non-divergent in the future. In this article, we propose a new method for coherent modelling and forecasting of mortality rates for multiple subpopulations, in the sense of nondivergent life expectancy among subpopulations. The mortality rates of subpopulations are treated as multilevel functional data and a weighted multilevel functional principal component (wMFPCA) approach is proposed to model and forecast them. The proposed model is applied to sex-specific data for nine developed countries, and the results show that, in terms of overall forecasting accuracy, the model outperforms the independent model and the Product-Ratio model as well as the unweighted multilevel functional principal component approach.     

Semiparametric sieve maximum likelihood estimation under cure model with partly interval censored and left truncated data for application to spontaneous abortion

Lifetime Data Analysis - This work was motivated by observational studies in pregnancy with spontaneous abortion (SAB) as outcome. Clearly some women experience the SAB event but the rest do not....     

京津冀协同发展的阶段成效与高质量发展对策

京津冀协同发展战略是以习近平同志为核心的党中央在新时代的一项重大决策部署,是习近平京津冀协同发展思想的重要体现。在近年来一系列方针政策和重要举措推动下,京津冀协同发展取得显著成效,主要体现为经济发展稳中向好、河北雄安新区建设实现良好开局、北京非首都功能疏解实现较大突破、一体化现代交通网络加快建设、生态环境协同治理取得明显成效、区域协同创新加快推进、公共服务共建共享取得进展等。面对当前我国社会主要矛盾,继续推动京津冀高质量协同发展是破解我国区域不平衡不充分发展的重要实践。     

Exploring the intersection of transnationalism and critical race theory: a critical race analysis of international student experiences in the United States

International student mobility to the United States (US) has increased over the past two decades. Despite the increase in numbers, international students may experience racism, nativism, and other forms of discrimination within the US context. Much of the existing literature focus on how international students can assimilate and cope with these issues rather than interrogating the systems of oppression that create negative student experiences. Thus, we utilized critical race theory (CRT) as a framework for interrogating how international student experiences are portrayed in current literature. Although CRT is grounded in US-based legal theory, we argue that CRT must move beyond the rigid confinement within US borders and expand to consider how transnationalism and global exchange contributes to the fluidity and applicability of this theory. We also provide recommendations for critical race praxis, with an emphasis on implications for practice, theory, and future research.     

漫谈莎士比亚作品的语言特色

文章以莎士比亚作品的语言特色为出发点,结合伊丽莎白时代的特征和英语发展的历史背景,加以案例分析,揭示莎翁作品的语言在遣词、结构以及修辞手法方面的特别之处,并与现代英语的用法进行比较,从而对其在英语的使用和后世文学发展中的影响进行归纳,也为进一步研究莎翁作品提供语言特色上的参考.     

我国《科学学与科学技术管理》和《科学学研究》1999-2003文章内部结构和资助状况浅析

应用统计学软件SPSS,对《科学学与科学技术管理》和《科学学研究》1999—2003年刊发的825篇研究性论文的发表年、文章内部结构及资助者进行文献统计分析,以深入透析我国科技管理研究所处的阶段、研究方向和研究内容,找出其研究的特点与不足。目前科学学研究性论文研究内容有三个倾向即“集中化倾向”、“理论化倾向”和“国家政策倾向”;研究阶段多处于“问题描述阶段”;研究方法以“非经验研究”为主;基金资助比例失调。     

我国土地征收权滥用的法律探析

土地征收权合法性的核心要件在于公共利益目的、正当法律程序和公平合理的补偿。结合我国人多地少的国情,有必要对公共利益采取列举式的立法体例进行严格界定,同时引入"公共产品"的概念,淡化地方政府在征地过程中的"经济人"角色,将土地被征收后的增值部分完全分配给失地农民。     

论传统伦理在鲁迅小说叙事中的境遇

在理性伦理层面，鲁迅执着地批判和反抗传统伦理，但在小说叙事伦理中却对传统伦理的诸多方面有所担待，并且充满着不可排遣的紧张冲突，这既是思想、文化转型时代人心秩序的普遍反映，更是鲁迅个体伦理困惑的体现。