Penalised spline estimation for generalised partially linear single-index models

Generalised linear models are frequently used in modeling the relationship of the response variable from the general exponential family with a set of predictor variables, where a linear combination of predictors is linked to the mean of the response variable. We propose a penalised spline (P-spline) estimation for generalised partially linear single-index models, which extend the generalised linear models to include nonlinear effect for some predictors. The proposed models can allow flexible dependence on some predictors while overcome the “curse of dimensionality”. We investigate the P-spline profile likelihood estimation using the readily available R package mgcv, leading to straightforward computation. Simulation studies are considered under various link functions. In addition, we examine different choices of smoothing parameters. Simulation results and real data applications show effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, some large sample properties are established.     

基于格兰杰因果关系检验的ISM改进与应用

文章提出了一种基于格兰杰因果关系检验的解释结构模型(ISM)改进方法,该方法能依据客观统计数据识别影响因素的两两关系,进而改善了原有模型中采用专家评价法确定邻接矩阵的主观性困境.通过对物流与经济协同发展水平的影响因素分析,实证检验了解释结构模型改进方法的可行性.     

交通基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章构建中国2000-2015年间30个省份多样化的空间面板数据,采用极大似然估计、空间杜宾模型及偏微分方法,实证测度了中国交通基础设施对经济增长的空间溢出效应.研究发现,铁路在地理距离作用下对经济增长正向显著,在其他作用下不显著;公路在经济、产业和技术距离作用下高度显著,而在地理距离作用下不显著.综合距离作用分析表明,公路对经济增长存在积极的溢出效应,在统计上正向显著;而铁路则存在较弱的影响,且未通过显著性检验.     

固定设计异方差非参数回归模型的预测方法

文章针对固定设计下异方差非参数回归模型,考虑了基于多项式样条的三种预测方法,即非外推法、线性外推法和非线性外推法.模拟结果表明非外推预测法的均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)的均值最大,而线性外推法的RMSE和MAE的均值略小于非线性外推法的RMSE和MAE的均值.实证分析结果显示:非外推预测法的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、RMSE和MAE最大,线性外推法的MAPE、RMSE和MAE最小.这表明整体上外推法优于非外推法,而线性外推法是简单可行的.     

Public Attitudes towards Income Redistribution: Evidence from Hong Kong

The drivers of public support for redistributive policy have stimulated academic debate around the world. The majority of studies use cross‐country surveys conducted in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries to contribute to the debate on whether self‐interest or social values have more influence on public attitudes towards redistribution. Drawing on a phone survey conducted in 2013, this study advances the discussion by investigating public attitudes towards redistribution and social policy changes against the backdrop of buoyant government revenues in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong welfare model, best seen as a parallel to the liberal welfare state, is selective and residual. Contrary to the usual assumption, the social values hypothesis, viewing poverty as societal problems instead of individual reasons, has been supported in the Hong Kong context. It lends support to greater redistribution in a residual welfare state. The policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Disequilibrium multi-dividing ontology learning algorithm

As an effective tool for data storage, processing, and computing, ontology has been used in many fields of computer science and information technology. By means of its powerful performance on semantic query and knowledge extraction, domain ontology has been built on various disciplines such as biology, pharmaceutics, geography, chemistry, etc. and been smoothly employed for their engineering applications. In these ontology applications, we aim to get an optimal ontology function which maps each ontology to a real number and then determine the similarity between concepts by the distance of their corresponding real numbers. In former ontology learning approaches, all the instances in the training sample have equal status in the learning process. In this article, we present the disequilibrium multi-dividing ontology algorithm in which the important ontology data will be highlighted during the learning, and the relevant ontology data tend to be eliminated. Four experiments are designed to test the serviceability of our disequilibrium multi-dividing algorithm from angles of ontology similarity measuring and ontology mapping construction.     

国内外广告产业统计范围的比较

广告产业统计为广告产业发展的基础性研究课题,同时是政府进行广告产业的财政统计的依据与标准以及实现国际相同产业发展对照的基本标准.我国现行的广告产业统计标准多年来未经调整修正,不能真实反映产业发展实际.文章通过综述国内外相关学术研究,并结合我国现行的《广告业统计报表制度(2012)》、《国民经济行业分类(GB/T4754-2011)》、联合国颁布的《所有经济活动之国际标准行业分类(修订4版)》与《北美产业分类体系(2012)》当中广告产业的统计分类与统计范围,总结我国现行的广告产业统计分类标准存在的主要问题,即产业界定、定位与广告产业现实发展偏离;产业分类方式滞后;产业统计范围狭窄且有重合之处.     

中国城乡发展差距水平及其波动效应的实证

城乡发展差距是中国社会转型下最突出的矛盾之一.文章从经济、社会、文化、政治、生态五大维度构建中国城乡发展差距综合评价指标体系,以中国31个省份为研究区域,运用主成分分析法实证评价了中国城乡发展差距的现实水平及其波动效应.研究表明,中国城乡差距水平由东向西呈递增趋势,1985年至今城乡差距水平表现为一种波动性扩大的效应,城乡差距水平与城镇化发展水平表现为一种相互影响的逆向关系.     

Can Likert Scales be Treated as Interval Scales?—A Simulation Study

The Likert scale is widely used in social work research, and is commonly constructed with four to seven points. It is usually treated as an interval scale, but strictly speaking it is an ordinal scale, where arithmetic operations cannot be conducted. There are pros and cons in using the Likert scale as an interval scale, but the controversy can be handled by increasing the number of points. Several researchers have suggested bringing the number up to eleven, on the basis of empirical data. In this article the authors explore this rational and share the same view, but simulate artificial data from both symmetrical normal and skewed distributions where the underlying metric is known in advance. Results show that more Likert scale points will result in a closer approach to the underlying distribution, and hence normality and interval scales. To increase generalizability social work practitioners are encouraged to use 11-point Likert scales from 0 to 10, a natural and easily comprehensible range.     

Who is Jobless? A Comparison of Joblessness in Rural and Urban Areas in China

Since market‐oriented economic reform was launched in China in the 1980s, unemployment has been recognized by the government. This paper focuses on the differences in joblessness in rural and urban areas between rural migrant workers, peasants, and urban citizens. The results indicate that people in rural areas frequently lose their jobs, which differs from the traditional perception. There is a significantly lower jobless rate in urban areas. In contrast to the results of previous studies, the employment situation of rural migrant workers is closer to urban citizens rather than peasants. Logistic regression results show that the elderly, women, and less educated citizens have a higher likelihood of joblessness, both in urban and rural areas. Minorities have a lower likelihood of joblessness in rural areas and a higher likelihood in urban areas. Chinese Communist Party members and people without dependent children have a lower likelihood of joblessness in urban areas.