A surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process and applications

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a surplus process involving a compound Poisson counting process, which is a generalization of the classical ruin model where the claim-counting process is a homogeneous Poisson process. The incentive is to model batch arrival of claims using a counting process that is based on a compound distribution. This reduces the difficulty of modeling claim amounts and is consistent with industrial data. Recursive formula, some properties and relevant main ruin theory results are provided. Further, we consider applications involving zero-truncated negative binomial and zero-truncated binomial batch arrivals when the claim amounts follow exponential or Erlang distribution.     

汉语双字词常模特征跨词性对比研究

汉语中不同词性词有不同常模特征规律。名词的具体性、意象性、语义透明度最高，但笔画数最少；动词的词频最高、习得年龄最晚,但感官经验度最低；形容词的熟悉性、主观词频和情感经验度最高，但具体性最低。同时，具体性、意象性和感官经验度之间的相互关联只存在于名词和形容词中。13个常模特征可以归为频率、语义、视觉复杂性和词义数四个公共因子，但各因子所主要代表的变量情况在不同词性词之间有相似，亦有不同。另外，动词和形容词之间的相似性高于它们分别与名词之间的相似性程度，习得年龄、情感经验度、意象性和主观词义数最能把名词与另外两种词性区分开来。     

以习近平总书记“3·18”讲话为重要遵循 推进新时代思政课建设

习近平总书记在2019年3月18日主持召开全国学校思想政治理论座谈会并发表重要讲话，即“3·18”讲话。在“3·18”讲 话中，习近平总书记不仅强调了新时代我们“为什么”要办好思想政治理论课，而且明确回答了新时代我们要办“什么样”的思 想政治理论课和“如何办好”思想政治理论课等一系列重大问题。实践表明， “3·18”讲话是党中央新时代办好思想政治理论课 的重要遵循。在该讲话发表一周年之际，重温这一讲话具有重要理论和现实意义。     

A population sample registry for public health survey investigations: methods,lessons, and successes

Public health relies on sample surveys to monitor the health of populations and investigate factors that contribute to population health and illness. Such investigations require surveying individuals who are selected in ways that support statistical inference to the population. Faced with rising costs and declining participation, survey researchers are exploring economical ways to recruit samples that validly represent larger populations. The current report describes an innovative resource, the Colorado Adult Population Sample–Survey Research Registry, which maintains survey access to respondents from a probability-based state health survey. We describe recruitment and retention strategies, explore representativeness, report several studies that used the registry, and discuss future directions.     

园校合作中幼儿园主体地位的发挥——基于壁炉现象的启示

壁炉现象是校企合作中的一种“企业冷、学校热”的现象，其根源在于“学校单一主体”使然。园校合作中同样存在这一现象，“高校高、幼儿园低”的不平等地位以及“学校单一主体”的状况使得幼儿园在合作中主体地位不突出、所得效益不明显。因此，破解园校合作中的“壁炉现象”要以外部激励为辅、内部激发为主，创建“双主体”模式、发挥幼儿园的主体地位，让幼儿园从人、财、物方面获益。     

机器学习视角下中国去产能产业的识别

随着中国环境压力的增加,政府提出了供给侧改革,去产能是改革的主要内容,但是由于产业特征的实时演变,需要对政策进行完善。文章运用模糊C均值算法和支持向量机算法分析现阶段需要进行去产能的产业,结果发现在现行去产能政策中大部分行业是需要去产能的,但煤炭开采和洗选业以及铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业已不适合继续去产能,同时将化学原料和化学制品制造业加入去产能行列中。     

美英日动漫游戏产业发展的三维比较分析及启示——基于经济、技术和社会的整合框架

动漫游戏产业属于文化科技高度融合的新型文化产业形态。在“经济—技术—社会”的三维整合框架下，对美国计算机动画产业、英国游戏产业和日本AGC产业进行了三维对比分析，进而详细分析了美国迪斯尼式动画产业发展模式、英国以发行商为核心的游戏产业发展模式、日本AGC一体化动漫产业发展模式的内部运作机理和主要特征。在此基础上，对三个国家动漫游戏产业的发展进行了横向对比和分析，总结了对我国动漫游戏产业发展具有启示意义的主要经验。     

上海文化与科技融合发展调研报告

上海在文化与科技领域的重点企业和品牌影响力不断增强,在细分领域逐步构建了一批有标识度的新兴文化创意产品品牌矩阵.但关键技术领域有待突破,文化大数据体系有待建立,知识产权保护力度有待加强,行业审批周期有待缩短.应增强文化与科技领域的关键技术研发与品牌建设,强化对文化创意产品的知识产权保护,加快培育跨界多功能型高端人才,研究精准化的文化创意产品发展政策.     

Community care for adults with severe mental disorders in rural China: A case study

In China, family care is the dominant form of care for people with mental disorders. Since 2004, the government has been developing a community‐care model that places more responsibility on community organisations and the local governments at the provincial, municipal and county levels for the provision of formal care. As a large number of people with severe mental disorders live in rural China, this case study was conducted in a rural county in order to examine the development of community care. It was found that, although family care remains dominant, families’ need for formal care is increasing. Community services have improved, but their development is constrained by several contextual and micro factors. In this study, it is argued that the community‐care model introduces a process of reconfiguration of the relative responsibility for care among the family, social organisations and the government, but progress depends on further administrative and fiscal reforms.     

中国人口学科国际化水平及其影响因素

国际化是学科成熟与发展的一个重要指标。但是作为世界人口第一大国,中国人口学科的国际化并没有发展到一个相对应的水平。在界定了学科国际化概念的基础上,借助问卷调查数据来分析中国人口学科国际化的现状,探讨中国人口科学继续与国际学界融合所面临的困难及其主要原因。结果表明,中国人口学的国际化明显处于不断萎缩的态势,其直接动因和深层次缘由分别是整个人口学界的国际化意识与能力的减弱,以及人口学科文化与制度本身存在的缺陷。加强国际化的学科文化建设与建立相配套的学科制度是提高中国人口学科国际化水平的重要途径。