中国货币政策的利率规则——基于金融状况指数的分析

为检验中国中央银行是否已将金融市场状况纳入货币政策的框架,采用HTVPVAR模型的脉冲响应构建中国金融市场状况指数,检验结果显示:以金融市场状况指数为转换变量的STR模型形式的利率规则能较好地拟合实际数据,政策利率对通货膨胀缺口的变动存在非线性调整,且金融市场的景气（不景气）将增强（减弱）货币政策对通货膨胀缺口的反应程度。     

浅谈编写适应地方特色的新型教材的重要性

目前可以选用的化工基础教材对于新建地方本科院校的学生来讲理论推导太多、例题太少,且与当地工业项目不匹配,不利于学生的学和老师的教。为了进一步提高教学质量,在陕西八所地方院校的共同努力下,合作编写适应地方特色的《化工基础》教材。本次教材改革对于提高非化工专业学生的工程意识和拓宽就业面具有重要的意义。     

水旱灾害对清末安徽淮河流域农村社会的影响

清末时期,安徽淮河流域水旱灾害频发,对该地区的农业经济和农村社会秩序产生了严重的影响,主要包括对农作物的破坏,对农田水利设施的损坏,对农业劳动力的伤害,造成农业人口的大量流动,扰乱正常的农村经济秩序和农村社会秩序混乱动荡等方面。     

论苗族歌鼟的艺术美

苗族歌鼟是湖南湘西南部靖州苗族侗族自治县锹里一带流传的多声部民歌,其旋律优美,声部和谐,唱腔独特,具有自然朴实的民族特色,给人以美的享受。这种艺术美渗透于苗族歌鼟的各个构成元素,非常注重旋律、节奏、和声、调式的美感;歌词体现出苗民们的内在美;唱腔充分发挥出演唱的声韵美;语言更是彰显了民族之本色。这些艺术美的元素综合在一起,使苗族歌鼟成为一种美的化身。     

Collective versus Individual Effects in Survival Analysis of Multiple Failures

In survival analysis, we sometimes encounter data with multiple censored outcomes. Under certain scenarios, partial or even all covariates have ‘similar’ relative risks on the multiple outcomes in the Cox regression analysis. The similarity in covariate effects can be quantified using the proportionality of regression coefficients. Identifying the proportionality structure, or equivalently whether covariates have individual or collective effects, may have important scientific implications. In addition, it can lead to a smaller set of unknown parameters, which in turn results in more accurate estimation. In this article, we develop a novel approach for identifying the proportionality structure. Simulation shows the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach and its advantage over estimation under no assumed structure. We analyse three datasets to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed approach.     

A Proportional Hazards Regression Model for the Subdistribution with Covariates‐adjusted Censoring Weight for Competing Risks Data

With competing risks data, one often needs to assess the treatment and covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. Fine and Gray proposed a proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with the assumption that the censoring distribution and the covariates are independent. Covariate‐dependent censoring sometimes occurs in medical studies. In this paper, we study the proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk with proper adjustments for covariate‐dependent censoring. We consider a covariate‐adjusted weight function by fitting the Cox model for the censoring distribution and using the predictive probability for each individual. Our simulation study shows that the covariate‐adjusted weight estimator is basically unbiased when the censoring time depends on the covariates, and the covariate‐adjusted weight approach works well for the variance estimator as well. We illustrate our methods with bone marrow transplant data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. Here, cancer relapse and death in complete remission are two competing risks.     

搅拌釜内双层改进型INTER-MIG桨流场实验研究

为得到双层INTER-MIG桨搅拌釜内流场特征,文章采用粒子图像测速技术(PIV)对直径为430 mm的双层改进 型INTER-MIG桨搅拌槽内流场进行了实验研究。分析了搅拌转速、相位角及轴向位置对搅拌槽内流场分布的影响。结 果表明：整个流场表现出较强轴流特性,底桨右端形成一个漩涡;转速增加引起桨叶附近湍动增强,但整体流型变化不 大;当r/R <0.48时,桨叶间轴流效果显著,有利于釜底流体向上抬升,增强整体混合效果;当r/R>0.48时,桨叶右端在 近壁面处会形成上下2股流动流体,有助于形成局部区域循环。实验结果可为工业搅拌过程提供工艺参考。     

透视新时期我国区域规划的发展与变革

区域规划作为时代发展的产物,是国家和地区调控区域发展的手段.20世纪90年代以来,随着我国政治、经济转型的不断深入,传统计划经济体制和等级官僚管理体系正发生着深刻变化,并对我国区域规划研究产生显著影响.     

珠三角地区企业员工满意度及离职意愿的探讨

员工的自愿离职直接影响到企业人才的稳定性,也会增加企业的人力资源成本。员工的实际离职产生于离职意愿,而离职意愿与员工满意度密切相关。了解员工对工作的态度,将有助于我们制定相应的人力资源管理的措施,更好地留住企业所需的人才,增强企业的竞争力。文章采取问卷调查的方法,通过方便随机抽样获得1469份有效问卷,被试者来自珠三角地区不同企业的员工。研究内容主要包括:广东珠三角地区的企业员工工作满意度和构成因素,员工离职意愿,人口特征对满意度、离职意愿、工作积极性的影响。     

写作教学中强化写作“产品”意识系统工程的思考与实践

本文三个提出认为强化写作“产品”意识的系列工程对改变当前很多学校写作教学效率低的现状具有战略意义。