Empirical Likelihood for the Additive Hazards Model with Current Status Data

We investigate empirical likelihood for the additive hazards model with current status data. An empirical log-likelihood ratio for a vector or subvector of regression parameters is defined and its limiting distribution is shown to be a standard chi-squared distribution. The proposed inference procedure enables us to make empirical likelihood-based inference for the regression parameters. Finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed in simulation studies to compare with that of a normal approximation method, it shows that the empirical likelihood method provides more accurate inference than the normal approximation method. A real data example is used for illustration.     

Stochastically optimal bootstrap sample size for shrinkage-type statistics

In nonregular problems where the conventional \(n\) out of \(n\) bootstrap is inconsistent, the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap provides a useful remedy to restore consistency. Conventionally, optimal choice of the bootstrap sample size \(m\) is taken to be the minimiser of a frequentist error measure, estimation of which has posed a major difficulty hindering practical application of the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap method. Relatively little attention has been paid to a stronger, stochastic, version of the optimal bootstrap sample size, defined as the minimiser of an error measure calculated directly from the observed sample. Motivated by this stronger notion of optimality, we develop procedures for calculating the stochastically optimal value of \(m\). Our procedures are shown to work under special forms of Edgeworth-type expansions which are typically satisfied by statistics of the shrinkage type. Theoretical and empirical properties of our methods are illustrated with three examples, namely the James–Stein estimator, the ridge regression estimator and the post-model-selection regression estimator.     

借异写实,发抒孤愤:《聊斋志异》的创作笔法与创作主旨

《聊斋志异》以善写鬼狐故事而构成题材上的"异";但作家的创作主旨是要借助这些奇异的题材来反映现实,发抒孤愤,寄托理想.为实现这一主旨,作家使用了种种特异的笔法,即"借异写实",通过"亦真亦幻"、"奇思异想"、"变形与放大"和"写实中求异"四个方面,实现作者的创作主旨.     

Opportunities for woman-initiated HIV prevention methods among female sex workers in southern China

Rapid changes in China over the past two decades have led to significant problems associated with population migration and changing social attitudes, including a growing sex industry and concurrent increases in STIs and HIV. This article reports results of an exploratory study of microbicide acceptability and readiness and current HIV prevention efforts among female sex workers in two rural and one urban town in Hainan and Guangxi Provinces in southern China. The study focused on these women's knowledge and cultural understandings of options for protecting themselves from exposure to STIs and HIV, and the potential viability and acceptability of woman-initiated prevention methods. We report on ethnographic elicitation interviews conducted with women working within informal sex-work establishments (hotels, massage and beauty parlors, roadside restaurants, boarding houses). We discuss implications of these findings for further promotion of woman-initiated prevention methods such as microbicides and female condoms among female sex workers in China.     

TEDA西区拱桥设计

一、工程概况 天津市经济技术开发区西区中心庄路-京津塘高速公路拱桥是开发区西区基础设施一期工程的重要单体项目之一,位于开发区中心庄路与京津塘高速公路相交处,系分离式立交桥,立交桥沿中心庄路上跨京津塘高速公路,主桥采用双铰型上承式拱桥结构,主桥主拱净跨径62米,矢高8.8米,拱上建筑总跨径70米,桥面单幅宽度18米,一跨跨越京津塘高速公路,斜交角度为65度,引桥采用钢筋混凝土π形梁,立交跨径布置为19×20 70 19×20米,桥梁总长度为830米,桥梁总面积为30880平方米.     

跳出地产看地产——试论滨海新区房地产的宏观走势

滨海新区的开发开放正式纳入国家战略已有一年,在此前后,滨海新区的房地产开发热已持续近两年.静观这两年的事态变化,开发者已由最初的喧嚣、癫狂而趋于理性,置业者和投资者浮躁的功利心态也逐步冷却.显然,坊间追捧和媒体热炒的房地产开发"盛世"并未如期而至;一些先行者创造的个案营销神话,似乎也未再现,惟一的奇迹,就是滨海的房价一再拉高,已经与中心城区比肩.滨海新区的房地产到底出现了什么问题?原因何在?需要有一个客观的诊断和解答.     

Master Production Rescheduling Policy in Capacity-Constrained Just-In-Time Make-To-Stock Environments

This paper describes a simulation experiment to evaluate the relative effectiveness of rescheduling policies in capacity-constrained, just-in-time (JIT) make-to-stock production environments. Three performance measures were analyzed: average finished goods inventory, total units of sales lost, and a measure of schedule instability. Among the three loading methods we studied (level loading, front loading, and back loading), none was superior across all three performance measures. Level loading was the most robust, while back loading had an interaction effect with forecasting model and capacity level. Time fence scenario was found not to be as significant a factor in system performance as reported by previous research. Once an acceptable time fence scenario is selected, attempts to optimize this factor do not appear to offer significant improvement. It was found that higher demand variation, larger forecast errors, and tight capacity lead to the degradation of system performance. Judicious use of slack capacity helps a system to incorporate the periodic schedule changes typical of JIT systems.     

水族古文字与甲骨文的联系

长期以来在水族社会使用的《水书》是用水族文字书写的。其年代久远的《水书》呈现的是水族古文字。本文通过对比研究的方式,从时间与地域、书写字体形态、书写文化等三个方面论证,认为水族古文字与甲骨文有密切联系,水族古文字是古代神本文化的活化石。     

脆弱而短暂的缓和——1975至1978年的越南与东盟关系

1975至1978年,出于各自利益和现实需要的考虑,长期敌视的越南与东盟关系迅速实现了缓和。但是,由于双方推行缓和的目的存在巨大差异,注定了此次缓和不可避免地具有脆弱性和短暂性。