话语重塑与概念流变:从中华民族到中华民族共同体

准确梳理和认识从中华民族到中华民族共同体的概念流变,有利于准确理解中华民族共同体的内涵,是铸牢中华民族共同体意识的基础性工作.中华民族概念是在近代中国内忧外患的民族危机和话语重塑中产生和发展的,经历了大汉族主义五族共和国族主义等内涵演变.中华人民共和国成立后,民族区域自治制度和民族政策趋向于关注和关怀少数民族多元,中华民族概念在相当长的时期内被虚化.新时代以来,习近平提出的中华民族共同体是对中华民族中华各民族中国各民族等概念的更高层次表达,是中华民族概念的最优表达.     

中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋 势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府“十四五”住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。     

Statistical considerations in clinical trial design with event-free survival as the primary efficacy endpoint

In late-phase confirmatory clinical trials in the oncology field, time-to-event (TTE) endpoints are commonly used as primary endpoints for establishing the efficacy of investigational therapies. Among these TTE endpoints, overall survival (OS) is always considered as the gold standard. However, OS data can take years to mature, and its use for measurement of efficacy can be confounded by the use of post-treatment rescue therapies or supportive care. Therefore, to accelerate the development process and better characterize the treatment effect of new investigational therapies, other TTE endpoints such as progression-free survival and event-free survival (EFS) are applied as primary efficacy endpoints in some confirmatory trials, either as a surrogate for OS or as a direct measure of clinical benefits. For evaluating novel treatments for acute myeloid leukemia, EFS has been gradually recognized as a direct measure of clinical benefits. However, the application of an EFS endpoint is still controversial mainly due to the debate surrounding definition of treatment failure (TF) events. In this article, we investigate the EFS endpoint with the most conservative definition for the timing of TF, which is Day 1 since randomization. Specifically, the corresponding non-proportional hazard pattern of the EFS endpoint is investigated with both analytical and numerical approaches.     

Bayes shrinkage estimator for consistency assessment of treatment effects in multi-regional clinical trials

The primary objective of a multi-regional clinical trial is to investigate the overall efficacy of the drug across regions and evaluate the possibility of applying the overall trial result to some specific region. A challenge arises when there is not enough regional sample size. We focus on the problem of evaluating applicability of a drug to a specific region of interest under the criterion of preserving a certain proportion of the overall treatment effect in the region. We propose a variant of James-Stein shrinkage estimator in the empirical Bayes context for the region-specific treatment effect. The estimator has the features of accommodating the between-region variation and finiteness correction of bias. We also propose a truncated version of the proposed shrinkage estimator to further protect risk in the presence of extreme value of regional treatment effect. Based on the proposed estimator, we provide the consistency assessment criterion and sample size calculation for the region of interest. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison with some existing methods. A hypothetical example is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed method.     

A Bayesian adaptive design for biosimilar trials with time-to-event endpoint

A biosimilar drug is a biological product that is highly similar to and at the same time has no clinically meaningful difference from licensed product in terms of safety, purity, and potency. Biosimilar study design is essential to demonstrate the equivalence between biosimilar drug and reference product. However, existing designs and assessment methods are primarily based on binary and continuous endpoints. We propose a Bayesian adaptive design for biosimilarity trials with time-to-event endpoint. The features of the proposed design are twofold. First, we employ the calibrated power prior to precisely borrow relevant information from historical data for the reference drug. Second, we propose a two-stage procedure using the Bayesian biosimilarity index (BBI) to allow early stop and improve the efficiency. Extensive simulations are conducted to demonstrate the operating characteristics of the proposed method in contrast with some naive method. Sensitivity analysis and extension with respect to the assumptions are presented.     

Toward a discourse shift in social gerontology: From successful aging to harmonious aging

Successful aging, though controversial, is used as an overarching conceptual framework in social gerontology. In this theory critique, the discourse of successful aging is identified as problematic with respect to four dimensions. First, successful aging is ageist in nature, and it produces a disharmony between body and mind. Second, successful aging, with the emphasis on quantifiable activities driven by the “busy ethic,” overlooks the deeper concern of quality experience. Third, the capitalist and consumerist components of successful aging are under-addressed. Fourth, successful aging is a discourse developed upon Western (specifically American) values and thus may not readily apply to other cultures.Harmonious aging, as proposed, is inspired by the Yin–Yang philosophy. Harmony refers to the balance based on differences instead of uniformity. This new discourse aims to recognize the challenges and opportunities of old age itself, ease the tension between activity and disengagement theories, heal the integrity of body and mind, and emphasize the interdependent nature of human beings. The call for the discourse shift attempts to promote intellectual exploration of what constitutes a good old age and to capture more cross-cultural diversities in the context of global aging. This theoretical endeavor is important to change the status quo of gerontology as being “data rich but theory poor,” and to contribute to cross-cultural gerontological research, education and communication.     

“经验研究”与“理论研究”——古典社会学、心理学的诠释学意涵

当前中国社会学中的一个突出问题是,经验研究与理论研究两个阵营之间相互质疑。然而,从当代诠释学的角度则有经验与理论一致性的命题:经验是文本的类似物。这一命题原创性地蕴含在社会学和心理学的奠基者詹姆斯、涂尔干、弗洛伊德和韦伯的思想之中,而本文的主体部分即发掘这些古典思想的诠释学意涵。文章指出,基于这一诠释学命题的理论建构,在解决中国社会学中两个阵营对峙问题的同时,将文化自觉置于学科建设的基础位置。     

教育券:解决城市流动儿童入学问题的良方还是歧途?

通过发行教育券来解决流动儿童的入学问题是当前一种较流行的主张。但这一主张只是从表面上使中央政府、地方政府和流动人口家庭之间达成了一定程度的妥协,能够在一定程度上缓解流动儿童的入学难题,却无法触及到问题的根源,无法从根本上解决流动儿童的义务教育问题。其根源在于对弗里德曼教育券理论的一种错误理解和运用。在美国,教育券要解决的是促使不同类型的学校尤其是私立学校通过竞争得到发展的问题,而不是要解决谁应该为学生的义务教育买单的问题。只有将义务教育经费划拨从以县为主上升为以省为主,才有望从根本上解决流动儿童接受义务教育的经费问题。     

关于水价成本公开的思考

解读企业实施水价成本公开的理论政策依据,剖析水价成本公开工作的现实意义和成本公开中需关注的问题,针对供水企业在开展成本公开工作中面临的任务和应采取的举措,提出相应的对策思路。