利用期权进行套期保值的均值——VaR模型

在金融衍生市场上,机构作为参与主体的主要目标是套期保值,进行风险规避和转移,但是,一个完整的金融衍生市场是由套期保值和投机两个部分构成的。投机是与套期保值相联系的一个概念,从某种意义上讲,它们又是一对对立的概念,因为套期保值者规避风险,是风险厌恶者;而投机者承担风     

城市工资上涨、劳动力转移与投资拉动增长方式——基于中国地级城市面板数据的分析

改革开放后,中国以高投资率带动了城市经济的高速增长,但随着农村剩余劳动力存量的不断减少,劳动力供给增长开始跟不上高投资带来的劳动力需求的增长,城市经济的发展正面临着工资加速上涨、投资的产出与就业效应不断降低的挑战。文章利用2004～2009年中国地级城市面板数据进行实证分析,结果显示,城市工资上涨对劳动力供给的拉力是递减的,而对劳动力需求的抑制作用却是递增的;劳动力市场均衡的比较静态分析结果显示,投资的工资上涨效应在递增,而投资的产出与就业效应在递减,因此城市工资上涨是必然趋势。此外,工资上涨对外商直接投资有明显抑制作用,在国内外双重压力下,中国继续实行投资拉动的增长方式已不是明智的选择。     

中心城市建设综合交通系统的经验、启示与对策——以伦敦、广州为例

通过分析伦敦的交通规划、建设、运营与管理措施,发现我国中心城市的严重交通拥堵主要源于落后的城市交通规划理念,大量引入多层高架公路进入市中心而忽视轨道交通建设,对公交优先存在认识上的误区和执行不力;城市公共交通工具营运各自为政,缺乏有效的协调与接驳;运营的低效率和管理不当,由此造成了典型的“大城市病”。根据后现代主义城市建设思想,结合当前中心城市公共交通体系建设的现状,提出了广州市综合交通体系建设的12项具体措施。     

“多元一体格局”理论视阈下和谐民族关系实现途径探讨

本文从＂中华民族多元一体格局＂理论视阈,论述了和谐民族关系的必要性与实现途径,要旨在于说明：古往今来,我国就是统一的多民族国家,构建和谐民族关系,始终是祖国统一、民族团结和国家安全的重要保障,也是增强中华民族凝聚力和当前实现民族复兴大业的关键所在;费孝通先生所提倡的＂中华民族多元一体格局＂理论,不仅是对中华各民族关系之历史与现状的精辟的理论概括和真实写照,而且对于我们正确认识中国国情,做好民族工作,构建社会主义和谐民族关系,亦有着非常重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

Co-Occurring Psychosocial Problems and Multiple Sexual Partners among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Shanghai,China: A Syndemic Approach

We aimed to apply syndemic theory to verify the association and reinforcing effects between psychosocial problems and multiple sexual partners (MSP) of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Shanghai, China. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 547 MSM in Shanghai, China using a face-to-face survey. Sociodemographic and psychosocial data were collected, as well as information on MSP and condomless anal sex. In the 6 months prior to the survey, 54.3% of the MSM sample had had MSP. Univariate analysis showed that self-esteem, depression, loneliness, sexual compulsivity, and involuntary subordination (IS) were associated with MSP. Sexual compulsivity (multivariate odds ratio [ORm] = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.76–4.91) and IS (ORm = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.14–2.81) remained significant in multivariate analysis. MSM with five or more psychosocial problems had greater odds of (adjusted odds ratios = 3.06, 95% CI = 1.49–6.25) having MSP in the previous 6 months than the non-syndemic group. Our findings provide preliminary confirmation of the additive relationship of syndemic psychosocial health conditions and MSP among MSM in Shanghai, China. An integrated intervention with special focus on sexual compulsivity and IS is needed.     

Tweeting about emergency: A semantic network analysis of government organizations’ social media messaging during Hurricane Harvey

While social media like Twitter have been increasingly adopted by public-sector organizations, it remains less explored as to how government and emergency management (EM) organizations use these platforms to communicate with the public in response to emerging natural disasters. Extending the Situational Crisis Communication Theory (SCCT) to the realm of social media, this study examines the emerging semantic networks from 67 government and EM organizations’ official tweets during Hurricane Harvey over a three-week period. It identifies how multiple crisis response strategies—including instructing information, adjusting information, and bolstering—are constituted of different issues, actions, and organizational actors before, during, and immediately after the disaster event. Results suggest that government agencies use the strategy of instructing information predominantly before and during the disaster, whereas adjusting information and bolstering strategies are utilized more during post-disaster recovery. The study offers theoretical and practical implications of using a semantic network approach to studying organizational crisis responses.     

居住安置的空间区位差异与弱势群体的社会适应——对江苏A市两个失地农民安置区的定量研究

失地农民作为城市弱势群体的一类,其居住安置模式主要有原地安置和偏远化安置两种.问卷调查的结果显示,原地安置区的失地农民与偏远化安置区的失地农民相比,征地拆迁之后的社会适应程度更高,前者在就业机会以及实际就业率方面较后者有明显的优势,对于自身目前的生活满意度相对较高,交往方式更接近于城市社区居民的交往,城市认同感也相对较好.而偏远化安置区的失地农民就业困难较为突出、生活满意度明显低下、社会交往受限制、心理上的城市认同感较差.显然,不同的居住安置区位对于失地农民的社会适应具有明显的影响.因此,积极探索社区混合居住的安置模式,是解决失地农民就业困难和生活困境的有益途径.     

论大跃进时期浮夸风产生的社会环境

浮夸风是大跃进时期一种恶劣的社会现象,共产生与当时中国的社会环境之间有着密切的联系。大跃进前夕中国社会在政治、经济、思想以及社会心理等方面存在的“左”的因素,酝酿了浮夸风出现的可能性。     

社会主义价值目标与中华民族伟大复兴

实现中华民族伟大复兴是一个系统工程,需要从经济、政治、文化、社会和生态几个方面共同推进。因此,树立社会主义经济价值目标、政治价值目标、文化价值目标、社会价值目标和生态价值目标是实现中华民族伟大复兴理想的题中应有之义。     

俄罗斯外交家罗高寿回望中国

＂我的朋友遍中国,我是怀着伤感离去的。＂3年前的蒙蒙细雨中,一个高大的身影步出挂着俄罗斯国旗的黑色奔驰车,随后登上了飞往莫斯科的飞机。他就是刚刚卸任的俄罗斯驻华大使罗高寿。