新青海建设中的文化自觉自信自强

居于青藏高原的青海多元文化从来是源远流长与互补共存的,在新青海建设中青海人着眼于对先进文化的自觉追求、自觉建设、自信宣扬、自信扩展,紧紧围绕青海文化的独特价值,运用根基深厚、内容多彩的青海文化助推了青海经济的发展,丰富了群众的精神生活,使青海文化以豪迈的姿态走向全国、走向世界,赢得喝彩。其中的文化自觉、自信、自强表现出面向时代、面向世界、面向未来的开放心胸及重在建设与开拓的理性。     

军民融合发展战略下的敏捷动员理论体系

信息化战争和重大突发事件的现实需求要求中国必须转变传统的动员工作模式,向信息化、智能化、高效化、精准化等具有敏捷特征的方向发展,因此敏捷动员成为新时代国民经济动员的主流动员模式。结合军民融合发展战略,在分析敏捷动员理论出现和发展历程的基础上,设计敏捷动员理论体系框架,明确动员联盟、动员链、动员网、集成动员和动员物流等理论成果之间的关系。研究认为:敏捷动员理论以"超常供给"为核心理念,动员联盟是敏捷动员的组织基础,动员链和动员网是实现敏捷动员的载体,动员物流是动员链和动员网的具体实现形式,集成动员是开展敏捷动员的工作模式。     

中国自主品牌形象提升的关键驱动因素及对策研究——基于矫形与塑形传播的视角

提升自主品牌形象是当前改善自主品牌消费环境、扩大自主品牌消费市场的重要现实命题,而厘清自主品牌负面刻板印象生成的根源及影响因素是探讨自主品牌形象提升的关键驱动因素与战略对策的理论基础。首先以8个论坛的受众跟帖为例,运用扎根理论进行探索性研究,发现负面企业形象、负面国货形象、负面政府形象、媒体渲染、国货意识淡漠和社会规范压力等6个主范畴是导致自主品牌负面刻板印象生成的主要影响因素;然后将范畴作为测量问项,将主范畴作为潜变量,进行问卷调查和实证分析,结果表明,6个主范畴均对自主品牌负面刻板印象存在显著的正向影响。在此基础上,根据自主品牌负面刻板印象生成的影响因素,提炼出自主品牌形象提升的5大关键驱动因素,即企业形象驱动因素、政府形象驱动因素、媒介框架驱动因素、消费者情感驱动因素和社会规范驱动因素,并对其影响效应及对策措施进行了探讨,建构了自主品牌形象提升的关键驱动因素影响效应模型。     

川剧艺术家口述史(梅花奖得主卷)之古小琴篇

古小琴,女,国家二级演员,第六届中国戏剧“梅花奖”获得者,四川省川剧院演员。四川省第八届人大代表。11岁考入四川省川剧学校,主攻“青衣旦”。艺术素质好,嗓音甜美,善于用唱腔表现人物的内心世界,扮相俊美,妩媚多姿,身段流畅,表演细腻、准确。戏路较宽,基本功扎实,极富青春活力。以其独特的表演特色和塑造的各式生动人物受到广大观众的高度赞扬和喜爱。     

新见贤鼎器铭与西周大射礼

吴镇烽新著《商周青铜器铭文暨图像集成续编》中收录了一件贤鼎,据形制、纹饰等因素考量,当为西周早期后段康昭时器。铭文涉及西周大射之事,虽记载与其他器铭不合,但并非伪铭。其所记当是由周王亲自主持并参与的大规模军事演习。这是彼时军事战争频仍的现实反映,也是早期射礼起源于军事训练的鲜明例证。而透过贤鼎大射之事来简拔军事将领,也与射礼具备"择士"的政治目的相吻合。     

Spatial Cluster Detection for Longitudinal Outcomes Using Administrative Regions

This article proposes a new spatial cluster detection method for longitudinal outcomes that detects neighborhoods and regions with elevated rates of disease while controlling for individual level confounders. The proposed method, CumResPerm, utilizes cumulative geographic residuals through a permutation test to detect potential clusters which are defined as sets of administrative regions, such as a town or group of administrative regions. Previous cluster detection methods are not able to incorporate individual level data including covariate adjustment, while still being able to define potential clusters using informative neighborhood or town boundaries. Often, it is of interest to detect such spatial clusters because individuals residing in a town may have similar environmental exposures or socioeconomic backgrounds due to administrative reasons, such as zoning laws. Therefore, these boundaries can be very informative and more relevant than arbitrary clusters such as the standard circle or square. Application of the CumResPerm method will be illustrated by the Home Allergens and Asthma prospective cohort study analyzing the relationship between area or neighborhood residence and repeated measured outcome, occurrence of wheeze in the last six months, while taking into account mobile locations.     

An efficient sequential design of clinical trials

We propose an efficient group sequential monitoring rule for clinical trials. At each interim analysis both efficacy and futility are evaluated through a specified loss structure together with the predicted power. The proposed design is robust to a wide range of priors, and achieves the specified power with a saving of sample size compared to existing adaptive designs. A method is also proposed to obtain a reduced-bias estimator of treatment difference for the proposed design. The new approaches hold great potential for efficiently selecting a more effective treatment in comparative trials. Operating characteristics are evaluated and compared with other group sequential designs in empirical studies. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the method.     

机构投资者异质性的上市公司股利政策研究

 本文从现金股利政策的角度来研究机构投资者的投资行为和参与上市公司治理的情况。首先回顾了该方面的相关文献,以信号理论为基础,分析机构投资者与现金股利政策可能存在的关系;接着对机构投资者的基本特征以及我国机构投资者和上市公司现金股利政策的概况及特点进行了总结;最后本文以 2007至2010 年的机构投资者持股数据与上市公司现金股利政策数据进行统计分析、回归分析,实证检验了机构投资者异质性与上市公司股利政策之间的关系。     

Statistical Inference of Adaptive Designs with Binary Responses

Adaptive designs of clinical trials are ethical alternatives when the traditional randomization becomes ethically infeasible in desperate medical situations. However, such a design creates a dependency among trial data and its statistical analysis becomes more complex than the analysis for traditional randomized clinical trials. In this article, we examine adaptive designs with dichotomous responses from two treatments and extend some commonly used statistical methods for independent data. Under a regularity condition, the estimated odds ratio and its logarithm are shown to follow asymptotically normal distributions. Moreover, the ordinary goodness-of-fit test statistic for two-by-two contingency tables with dependent data is shown to be asymptotically chi-square distributed. We also discuss the consistency of maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters for a wide class of adaptive designs.     

Comparison of ANOVA-F and ANOM tests with regard to type I error rate and test power

A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to compare the type I error rate and test power of the analysis of means (ANOM) test to the one-way analysis of variance F-test (ANOVA-F). Simulation results showed that as long as the homogeneity of the variance assumption was satisfied, regardless of the shape of the distribution, number of group and the combination of observations, both ANOVA-F and ANOM test have displayed similar type I error rates. However, both tests have been negatively affected from the heterogeneity of the variances. This case became more obvious when the variance ratios increased. The test power values of both tests changed with respect to the effect size (Δ), variance ratio and sample size combinations. As long as the variances are homogeneous, ANOVA-F and ANOM test have similar powers except unbalanced cases. Under unbalanced conditions, the ANOVA-F was observed to be powerful than the ANOM-test. On the other hand, an increase in total number of observations caused the power values of ANOVA-F and ANOM test approach to each other. The relations between effect size (Δ) and the variance ratios affected the test power, especially when the sample sizes are not equal. As ANOVA-F has become to be superior in some of the experimental conditions being considered, ANOM is superior in the others. However, generally, when the populations with large mean have larger variances as well, ANOM test has been seen to be superior. On the other hand, when the populations with large mean have small variances, generally, ANOVA-F has observed to be superior. The situation became clearer when the number of the groups is 4 or 5.