过度旅游的综合评价方法及其实证研究

针对过度旅游对旅游目的地造成紊乱的问题,对过度旅游的成因及危害进行总结分析,利用统计数据确定综合旅游密度、旅游强度、民宿密度3项判断过度旅游状态的指标,并将3项指标分数之和作为评价过度旅游的指标值; 使用Zipf分布双对数图与H/T断裂点法确定数据等级划分方式,采用定距分数累加方式建立过度旅游综合评价方法; 利用国内外代表性旅游城市的数据进行了实证分析,验证了所建立综合评价方法的可行性。研究认为,过度旅游综合评价分数给出了旅游目的地过度旅游程度的相对顺序,能够推测各样本过度旅游风险所对应的要素,为制定过度旅游对应政策的优先级提供参考; 在样本城市中,国外过度旅游目的地注重流量管控、征收旅游税等三四级对策,而中国过度旅游目的地注重景区保护和流量管控等二三级对策,尽管国内样本城市旅游服务负荷已高于部分发达国家,但未出现排斥游客的过度旅游现象; 国内仍需要利用经济手段避免部分地区的旅游业依赖,升级城市景区保护为城市全域保护,适时推进旅游税政策。     

贸易中介研究综述

贸易中介在国际贸易发展中发挥的作用越来越受到重视,回顾近年来国内外贸易中介文献,从贸易中介的识别方法、贸易中介影响企业贸易行为的作用机制、实证结果、企业选择贸易中介的影响因素等方面进行研究。研究发现,贸易中介的作用机制包括促进买卖方的匹配、降低贸易成本和验证产品质量; 贸易中介为企业提供了新的出口模式,帮助企业进入市场规模较小、距离较远、贸易成本较高的目的国,对企业的出口产生积极的影响,同时对企业进口国外投入品、出口和生产率提升等产生影响; 在影响因素方面,规模较小、出口产品种类越多的企业面对难以进入的市场,越可能通过贸易中介出口。研究表明,为了完善贸易中介研究的理论体系和应用实践,需要加强贸易中介能否有效应对国内外政治和经济不确定性对进出口的冲击研究,拓展跨境电商与传统贸易中介关系研究,深化企业选择混合出口模式实现贸易中介出口和直接出口的优势互补研究。     

佛山社会保险制度改革：成绩·问题·建议

十年来佛山市对社会保险制度不断进行深层的改革,为全国社会保险制度改革作出了可贵的探索,被誉为“佛山模式”．课题组的调查研究表明,佛山现行的社会保险制度仍然存在一些问题,仍然适应不了经济改革与社会发展的需要,必须对之进行更进一步的改革。     

用XPS和AES研究MoS_4~(2-)在钢铁表面的配位化学反应

本文研究MoS_4~(2-)在钢铁表面发生配位化学反应所形成的具有装饰效果的多种彩色Mo-S-Fe表面簇合物膜。FI-IR、F-IR、FT-Raman、XPS和AES分析表明,簇合物膜由Fe、Mo、S、O元素组成,在膜表面铁以Fe(Ⅲ)、钼以Mo(Ⅵ)状态存在,而在膜内层以Fe(Ⅱ)、Mo(Ⅳ)和Mo(Ⅵ)共存,S和O都呈-2介,膜表面含少量 4、 6价硫。从AES深度分布曲线的组成恒定区求得了各组元素的相对原子百分浓度和膜层厚度,反应时间越长,膜越厚,膜为多分层子结构。加热后膜层所含元素种类及价态不变,但其元素分布有所改变。     

Sustainability of family planning and health projects

USAID has assisted the Ghanian Ministry of Health since 1991 to boost family planning services under the Ghana Family Planning and Health Project by providing supplies and information and increasing the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS prevention and control. The sustainability of the health system is endangered by favoring capital expenditures in lieu of continuous expenditures; the lack of linkage between project activities and regular activities; the centralization of resource flow; and too ambitious targeting. Capital outlays provided by USAID featured in the construction of four public health laboratories, but their operation also requires continuous financing amounting to about 10% of the whole investment. The latter is the responsibility of the government, although the details of these recurrent costs were not detailed at the outset and providing these funds for continuous operation may impair the operation of other systems. The resource constraints could be alleviated by an effective cost-recovery system or by the general improvement of the economy. The lack of linkage between project and regular activities is serious at regional and district levels. The centralization of resource flow means that most resources are kept for headquarter level activities, thus other activities suffer and the health sector becomes excessively reliant on donor support. Too ambitious planning stems from pressure on donors and hastily implemented projects result in duplication and waste. Closer consultation with the parties involved would improve the situation. The rivalry of technical and policy groups has contributed to past deficiencies. Double funding for the same activity has also occurred further increasing the dependence on donor funding. By concentration on people and systems sustainability would be enhanced, while cost recovery would help the operation of the laboratories. The Health Education Unit (HEU) recognized the importance of IEC and obtained financing for such activities.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 1997

In thousands, Thailand's total population as of July 1, 1997, was 60,440, of which 30,202 were male and 30,238 were female. 19,087 live in urban areas and 41,353 live in rural areas. 12,141 live in the northern region, 19,678 to the northeast, 7566 in the South, 13,112 centrally, and 7943 in the Bangkok metropolis. 16,288 were under age 15, 39,073 aged 15-59, and 5079 aged 60 and over. There were 15,558 women of reproductive ages 15-44. Crude birth and death rates per 1000 population were 15.6 and 5.0, respectively, with an overall natural growth rate of 1.1%. Infant mortality was 25.0 per 1000 live births. Male and female life expectancies at birth were 66.6 and 71.7 years, respectively. Further life expectancies at age 60 for males and females were 18.8 and 22.0 years, respectively. The rate of total fertility per woman was 1.98 with a contraceptive prevalence rate of 72.2% and an anticipated population of 70,642 in the year 2012.     

存货投资、通货膨胀和宏观经济波动

本文根据协整理论,利用中国1978-2002年的年度经济数据对中国存货投资、通货膨胀和宏观经济波动的关系进行了实证分析.实证结果表明短期内,作为短期宏观经济波动的重要衡量指标存货投资并未引起宏观经济的大幅波动,而是经济的波动导致了存货的同方向波动.通货膨胀的波动虽然对存货的波动也有一定的影响,但相比经济波动对它的影响,就微乎其微了.存货波动更多的表现为经济波动的显示器.     

基于可持续理论的能源资源价值分析模型

能源可持续发展是人类可持续发展的重要内容,而可持续的能源资源价值评价是实现能源可持续发展的一个根本途径.本文在最优增长模型的基础上,通过加入资源和环境约束,建立了一个用于评价可持续能源资源价值的跨期动态模型.本文还着重分析了市场的不完备性、环境的外部性以及政府政策失灵对可持续能源资源价值各构成部分的影响及在现实中的表现,并就中国目前的实际情况提出了相应的政策建议.     

制造业设备维护与管理的相对有效性评估

在设备维护与管理的评估中引入数据包络分析,以此为核心构建了设备维护与管理相对有效性的评估方法。该方法在系统功能建模的基础上,全面分析了设备维护与管理作为服务系统的投入与产出构成,以数据包络分析为计算模型完成了设备维护与管理有效性的评估。该方法满足了设备维护与管理评估全面性和客观性的要求,其有效性和可信度通过在某石化企业的应用得到了验证。