在山沟村民与神灵共娱的艺术世界里思考(一)——甘肃环县道情皮影表演仪式及其剧目举隅

国家级扶贫的一个革命老区县,其首批国家级"非遗"代表作"道情皮影"红火不衰,足显其"文化遗产"的不菲.物质极度贫困,又何以保存、传承了传统民间文化的丰富?本文据近年数次田野工作,对所观察到的这一"事象"的生态与文化植被、生存与生活态度、神灵与人的谋略和智慧等,思考、描述,期以引发今天的我们对民俗学与人类学某些问题的联想,以挖掘一种深远意义的表述.     

《民国治藏法规全编》评介

青年学者张双志博士编纂的<民国治藏法规全编>,2008年由学苑出版社影印出版.这是该社已出版的<清朝治藏法规汇编>的姊妹篇,也是国内外全面系统整理和汇编民国时期治藏政策法规的第一部学术著作.     

北京市生产性服务业发展与高端制造业增长

基于服务业推动制造业的增长理论,运用2002-2012年北京市投入产出表增加值数据和完全消耗数据的实证分析表明,北京市生产性服务业投入能提升制造业增加值,且高端制造业产出效率高于传统制造业.但以科学研究、 技术服务为代表的高端生产性服务业对高端制造业增加值增长的贡献效率远低于劳动投入,生产性服务业对制造业增加值的提升效应有待进一步增强.因此,北京市应加大科技创新和研发投入,提供金融科技和监管科技,推动生产性服务业供给侧结构性改革,形成生产性服务业与高端制造业融合发展的格局.     

The political is the personal: women’s participation in Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement

This article examines women’s lived experiences as new activists in social movements. Taiwanese women – many of them housewives – joined the Sunflower Movement, a large-scale protest against a trade pact with China, and a related anti-nuclear movement in 2014. This study demonstrates how new women activists’ everyday political practices mutually construct the public and private spheres in the Taiwanese context. By ‘making private public’, these new activists use discourses of citizenship and maternalism to connect politics to social issues and daily life. Public participation makes these women feel empowered, and their daily actions transform politics from a set of formal, institutionalized practices to a practical fact of everyday life. This research also challenges the reproduction of a rigid private/public division in previous feminist scholarship that regards family and childcare as a separate realm that hinders women’s public participation. In a marked break from past accounts, these women don’t separate their caring responsibilities from their political actions. By focusing on new activists’ political action in and through their family and childcare, this research calls into question scholarly discussions that view maternalism primarily as a public discourse for mobilizing women or a visual strategy for collective protest. By considering the disruptive potential of all acts of mothering, this study paints a more complex and nuanced picture of women and mothers as protesters and reveals how activist women’s actions in the family and private social networks can be a central part of maternalist strategies’ radical potential.     

A socio-ecological perspective of urban green networks: the Stockholm case

Landscape fragmentation threatens habitats, biodiversity and other ecosystem services. In tackling this threat, the dynamic processes of social-ecological systems should be recognised and understood. Although network analysis based on graph theory has been recognised as an efficient way of spatially understanding landscape or habitat connectivity, only few studies have offered specific approaches or suggestions for integrating detailed social-ecological values into geographical distributions. As a contribution to bridging this gap, this paper introduces a social-ecological network model for the issue of landscape or habitat fragmentation applied to the case of Stockholm, Sweden. Graph theory was used in combination with sociotope and biotope maps for simple visualisation of network situations in two-dimensional maps. The European crested tit (Lophophanes cristatus), European common toad (Bufo bufo) and human beings were selected as indicator species, based on a landscape ecology analysis in Stockholm Municipality in 2009. Slope, land use and human disturbance maps were assessed in order to decide cost values of travelling from node to node. Lease-cost-path accumulation was used to create ideal reference maps of green networks. Three separate maps were then developed for suggesting efficient routes for three indicators in city scale that mainly connect from the Royal National City Park to the other parts of the city. The model in Hjorthagen neighbourhood to highlight two practical paths that link this fragmented community to its neighbouring park areas. Findings make it possible to address two scales of network improvement strategies, namely first for the city-scale green network that connects geographical habitats (nodes) and the regional green wedges of the city, and the second that of neighbourhood links between habitats in detailed layers of green networks. Strategic improvement potentials are presented based on ideal reference maps of green networks correspondingly.     

“推广街区制”的规划思辨

2016年2月,《中共中央国务院关于进一步加强城市规划建设管理工作的若干意见》中明确了"推广街区制"和"开放封闭小区"为我国住宅未来发展的方向。在《意见》印发后,与之相关的内容也成为公众和城市规划专业领域共同关注的焦点。本文在解读《意见》的基础上,深入探讨"推广街区制"在围墙设置、街区尺度、街道活力、产权划分、社会公平等方面引发的一系列争议,并进一步提出当前在城市规划中"推广街区制"的实施路径。     

Improved likelihood inferences for Weibull regression model

A general procedure is developed for bias-correcting the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters of Weibull regression model with either complete or right-censored data. Following the bias correction, variance corrections and hence improved t-ratios for model parameters are presented. Potentially improved t-ratios for other reliability-related quantities are also discussed. Simulation results show that the proposed method is effective in correcting the bias of the MLEs, and the resulted t-ratios generally improve over the regular t-ratios.     

Quantile regression for robust estimation and variable selection in partially linear varying-coefficient models

In this paper, we develop a new estimation procedure based on quantile regression for semiparametric partially linear varying-coefficient models. The proposed estimation approach is empirically shown to be much more efficient than the popular least squares estimation method for non-normal error distributions, and almost not lose any efficiency for normal errors. Asymptotic normalities of the proposed estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric parts are established. To achieve sparsity when there exist irrelevant variables in the model, two variable selection procedures based on adaptive penalty are developed to select important parametric covariates as well as significant nonparametric functions. Moreover, both these two variable selection procedures are demonstrated to enjoy the oracle property under some regularity conditions. Some Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators, and a real-data example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.     

Comparison of dichotomized and distributional approaches in rare event clinical trial design: a fixed Bayesian design

This research was motivated by our goal to design an efficient clinical trial to compare two doses of docosahexaenoic acid supplementation for reducing the rate of earliest preterm births (ePTB) and/or preterm births (PTB). Dichotomizing continuous gestational age (GA) data using a classic binomial distribution will result in a loss of information and reduced power. A distributional approach is an improved strategy to retain statistical power from the continuous distribution. However, appropriate distributions that fit the data properly, particularly in the tails, must be chosen, especially when the data are skewed. A recent study proposed a skew-normal method. We propose a three-component normal mixture model and introduce separate treatment effects at different components of GA. We evaluate operating characteristics of mixture model, beta-binomial model, and skew-normal model through simulation. We also apply these three methods to data from two completed clinical trials from the USA and Australia. Finite mixture models are shown to have favorable properties in PTB analysis but minimal benefit for ePTB analysis. Normal models on log-transformed data have the largest bias. Therefore we recommend finite mixture model for PTB study. Either finite mixture model or beta-binomial model is acceptable for ePTB study.     

A study of quadratic inference functions with alternative weighting matrices

Quadratic inference function (QIF) is an alternative methodology to the popular generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, it does not involve direct estimation of the correlation parameter, and thus remains optimal even if the working correlation structure is misspecified. The idea is to represent the inverse of the working correlation matrix by a linear combination of some basis matrices. In this article, we present a modification of QIF with a robust variance estimator of the extended score function. Theoretical and numerical results show that the modified QIF attains better efficiency and achieves better small sample performance than the original QIF method.