我国省级地方政府预算细化与腐败的关联性研究

预算细化会改变现有预算参与方的利益,减少地方政府的寻租腐败空间,从源头上预防腐败.基于我国31个省级地方政府的面板数据,可对预算细化的反腐败效应进行实证检验.研究结果表明:财政透明度与腐败呈显著的正相关;非税收入占财政收入比例的回归系数值为负数且不显著;财政分权与腐败也呈负相关且不显著;公务员工资水平与腐败呈显著的正相关.由此可见,为了提升预算反腐的有效性,应落实全口径预算,将政府的所有收支纳入预算,规范化管理非税收入;并完善财政分权体制,赋予地方政府实质性的财权和事权;同时要健全与完善追究机制、晋升考核机制等相关制度.     

Tolerance of Uncertainty: Links to Happenstance,Career Decision Self‐Efficacy,and Career Satisfaction

This study investigated the extent to which tolerance of uncertainty affects the relationship between happenstance skills and career satisfaction via career decision self‐efficacy. Moderated mediation analysis was conducted on data collected from 321 graduates (175 men, 146 women) of Korean universities making the school‐to‐work transition. Results showed that career decision self‐efficacy fully mediated the relationship between happenstance skills and career satisfaction. Furthermore, the moderation effect of tolerance of uncertainty had a significant impact on the relationship between happenstance skills and career decision self‐efficacy. Tolerance of uncertainty should be considered an important variable in happenstance career theory and intervention. Unplanned influences should also be considered important factors in the career decision‐making process.     

经典实验再验证:4—6岁儿童数学思维的当代探索及启示

皮亚杰数概念的实验研究一直广受研究者争议,认为其阶段性划分和儿童数概念发展年龄阶段存在问题。在本研究中,运用实验观察法对261名4—6岁儿童进行皮亚杰数概念系列实验验证和变式实验,结果表明:皮亚杰的儿童数概念发展阶段理论得到证实,但不同年代儿童被试的数概念水平是不一致的;在此基础上,我们基于儿童的特殊年龄阶段特点探讨了任务特点、主试指导语、实验材料的熟悉程度对儿童的影响,分析了产生影响的原因,以期待为当代儿童教育的新发展提供一些理论支持     

Limit theorems for dependent Bernoulli variables with statistical inference

We consider a class of dependent Bernoulli variables where the conditional success probability is a linear combination of the last few trials and the original success probability. We obtain its limit theorems including the strong law of large numbers, weak invariance principle, and law of the iterated logarithm. We also derive some statistical inference results which make the model applicable. Simulation results are exhibited as well to show that with small sample size the convergence rate is satisfying and the proposed estimators behave well.     

Three‐Stage Decision‐Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control

A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three‐stage decision‐making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, NUC ship, and ships passing by) under resource constraint in the first stage, (2) to select the most feasible options by comparing the similarity of the new case and existing cases in the second stage, and (3) to make decisions considering the cooperation between the involved organizations by using a developed Bayesian network in the third stage. Consequently, this work provides a useful tool to achieve well‐organized management of NUC ships.     

Is Tattooing a Risk Factor for Adolescents’ Criminal Behavior? Empirical Evidence from an Administrative Data Set of Juvenile Detainees in Taiwan

Juvenile crime affects not only the victims of the crime but also the delinquents’ future. How to prevent adolescent criminal behavior has become an important public policy issue. This study contributes to this interesting issue by examining the relationship between tattooing and adolescents’ criminal behavior. In particular, this study investigates whether or not having a tattoo/tattoos is connected to the incidence of various criminal activities, including: larceny, robbery, fraud, assault, drug use, and homicide. A unique sample of 973 juvenile detainees drawn from the administrative profiles in Taiwan and the coarsened exact matching method were utilized. Results show that compared to their nontattooed counterparts, tattooed juvenile detainees were significantly more likely to commit fraud, assault, drug abuse, and homicide by 3%, 13%, 9%, and 9%, respectively. In contrast, tattooing was not significantly associated with larceny or robbery. From a policy perspective, given the significant link between tattooing and criminal behavior, the presence of a tattoo in adolescents may serve as a valuable indicator regarding adolescents’ high probability of committing crimes.     

王福玲:鼓书声声醉心田

古语常说:“闻香识女人”,可是我认识王福玲却是从“闻声”开始. “天恩,你先把弦儿调好吧,下一个节目就到咱俩了.赶紧准备吧.”循着这个熟悉的岫岩口音,一位穿着黑绒面旗袍、略施粉黛的中年女人就这样走进我的眼帘. “老师,听您的口音是岫岩人吧?” “是呀.你也是岫岩的?” “嗯!” 这是我与王福玲的初次相识.从“闻其声”到“寻其人”,没有文人笔下老乡见老乡时的“泪眼相看”,却充满了“他乡遇故知”的情致.于是,随性闲话家乡,不成想却意外地聊起了一段她与岫岩东北大鼓的不解之缘.     

The Structure of Legal Relations in Online Transactions*

As the civil law expression of internet plus transactions, the legal relations in online trading platform transactions constitute a complex aggregate of legal relationships composed of groups of legal relations. Specifically, they consist of three basic interlinked legal relationships: Contract relations for online trading platform services between the platform provider and the seller or service provider, and between the platform provider and the consumer. This includes the sales or service contract relations between the triad of the seller, the service provider and the consumer. These relations contain five kinds of major content, viz., the provision of transaction space, the publishing of transaction information, price escrow payment, distribution and delivery of the commodity, and transaction credit evaluation. They involve three forms of supplementary legal relations: the supplementary contract relationship between the platform provider and a third party payment institution; between the seller and third party credit reporting agency; and between the seller and a logistics enterprise. The three forms of supplementary contractual legal relations are set up to act on the major contents of the basic legal relationships in online transactions. On the basis of the online trading platform service contract relationships between the platform provider and the triad of the seller, the service provider and the consumer, the flow of the above- mentioned legal relations centers on the contract of sales or service set up between the seller, the service provider and the consumer to accomplish the aim of the online transaction, meet social needs and boost economic development.     

独立学院文化现状及改进对策

大学文化是大学所有成员在历史时间内创造的精神财富和物质财富的总和。而独立学院文化的现状是文化不够鲜明、完整、深厚,因此,独立学院需要从文化培育、文化落实、文化传承、文化创新等方面加以改进。