信息缺失下的应急方案选择模型及算法研究

信息缺失是应急事件处置中的一个重要特征.对于考虑信息缺失的两阶段应急处置问题,本文提出了应急方案效度的概念,构造了考虑资源约束条件下的应急方案选择模型,并给出了求解算法.数值结果表明模型及算法的有效性.     

基于信任的供应预测信息共享策略

现实中供应不确定是比较普遍的现象，供应预测信息共享对改善供应链绩效起着重要作用。针对由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的单周期供应链，利用斯坦克尔伯格博弈方法研究信任对供应预测信息共享的影响以及回购契约对该供应链的协调作用。研究表明：零售商对制造商的信任影响供应预测信息共享效果，进而影响供应链绩效；制造商说谎的心理负效用系数越大，越倾向于说真话；回购契约可以促进制造商共享真实供应预测信息；当制造商说谎的心理负效用系数较大时，存在一个最佳的回购价格，使供应链实现完美协调。     

Guanxilization or categorization: psychological mechanisms contributing to the formation of the Chinese concept of “us”

中国社会心理学在面对急速的社会变迁中，需要以变迁与文化的视角来选择研究 问题，而中国社会文化中群己关系的社会心理机制，即“我们”概念的形成机制及其 转换的可能与条件，正是一个体现着双重视角的基本问题。对这一问题的探讨不仅有 助于解释社会凝聚力、群体行动的逻辑，讨论国家与个人、社会与个人、类别与个人 的关系；也有助于培植社会转型时期的社会心理资源和社会支持系统，从而促进社会 合作。与以往单一机制的分析框架不同，通过对两个个案的讨论，研究提出了一个 新的分析框架，即：中国人“我们”概念是在社会情境的启动和价值取向等因素影响之 下，经由相互交织的“关系化”与“类别化”双重过程形成的。

关键词: “我们”?概念?群己关系?关系?关系化?类别化

Faced with rapid social transformation, the discipline of social psychology in China needs to choose its research topics from the perspective of both change and culture. A basic issue reflecting precisely these two perspectives is that of the formation of the social psychology mechanism of individual‐group relations, namely the formation of the concept of “us” in Chinese society and culture, as well as the possibility and conditions for the transformation of this mechanism. Exploring this issue will not only help us to understand social cohesion and the logic of group behavior and to discuss the relationship between the state and the individual, society and the individual, and the category and the individual; it will also help cultivate social psychology resources and support systems at a time of social transition, and thus promote social cooperation.. Unlike previous analytical studies that focused on a unitary mechanism, this study uses the discussion of two cases to put forward a new framework for analysis: that is, the Chinese concept of “us” comes into being through the mingling of “guanxilization” and “categorization” under the influence of social context priming, value orientation and other factors.     

Finite nonparametric grach model for foreign exchange volatility

GARCH model has been commonly used to describe the volatility of foreign exchange returns, which typically depends on returns many lags before, While the GARCH model provides a simple geometric decaying structure for persistence in time, it restricts tiie impact of variables to Quadratic functions. A finite nonparametric GARCH model is proposed that allows the variables' impact to be a smooth function of any form. A direct local polynomial estimation method for this finite GARCH model is proposed based on results on proportional additive model, and is applied to the German Mark (DEM)/US Dollar (USD) daily returns data. Estimators uf both the decaying rate and the impact function are obtained. Diagnostics show satisfactory out-of-sampie prediction based on the proposed model, which helps to better understand the dynamics of foreign exchange volatility.     

A brief proof on the generalized variance bound of the relative efficiency in statistics

In this paper, we obtain a brief proof on the generalized varance bound of the relative efficiency that was simultaneously given by Bloomfield and Watson(1975) and by Knott (1975).     

On the distance paired domination of generalized Petersen graphs <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>(<Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>,1) and <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>(<Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>,2)

Let G=(V,E) be a graph without an isolated vertex. A set D⊆V(G) is a k -distance paired dominating set of G if D is a k-distance dominating set of G and the induced subgraph 〈D〉 has a perfect matching. The minimum cardinality of a k-distance paired dominating set for graph G is the k -distance paired domination number, denoted by γ _p ^k (G). In this paper, we determine the exact k-distance paired domination number of generalized Petersen graphs P(n,1) and P(n,2) for all k≥1.     

人口年龄结构变动对居民消费率影响的实证研究

中国已处于消费拉动时代,人口年龄结构变动对居民消费率的影响日益成为人们关注的热点.采用向量自回归模型分析我国人口年龄结构变动对居民消费率的影响,结果发现:居民消费率对少儿抚养比、老年抚养比的冲击响应有一定的滞后性;与老年抚养比变动对居民消费率影响的正向性、单调递增性不同,少儿抚养比变动对居民消费率的影响较为复杂,前期为正向、后期为负向;从长期来看,老年抚养比变动是居民消费率变化的主要来源.     

浅析现代资本市场体系下的保险资金

本文对现代资本市场体系下的保险资金进行了分析，首先分析了保险资金的构成，接着对保险资金和资本市场的相互关系进行了考察，并分析了当前保险资金运用的现状，最后提出了对当前保险资金运用的思考。     

Ta: SnO2薄膜的制备与性能研究

SnO2作为一种典型的宽带隙半导体材料具有许多优异的物理和化学性质，例如极高的电子电导率、可见光透过率和化学稳定性，因此广泛用于光电材料、太阳能电池和气敏材料等各领域。采用溶胶 凝胶法在玻璃基片上制备了Ta掺杂SnO2透明导电薄膜，其中Ta含量在8 atom.%左右。Ta:SnO2薄膜的表面形貌较平整，但由于局部应力使薄膜出现了细小的断裂。Ta:SnO2薄膜为金红石结构，结晶程度较高，由于Ta5+、Sn4+离子半径接近，Ta原子溶入SnO2的晶格中置换Sn原子位置形成了稳定均一的固溶体结构，因此没有第二相出现，但是其晶格常数略有变化。     

我国管理层收购的动机偏离及其理论解释

作为一种新型的并购工具,我国的管理层收购在实行了一段时间以后,大型国有企业管理层收购被叫停。本文认为我国管理层收购不是从企业发展战略的角度实施,而作为国有企业产权改革的一种形式,管理层收购更多的是一种投机活动,即管理层收购的动机存在由战略收购到投机的偏离,造成国有资产的流失。本文从代理理论和价值低估理论出发,认为国有企业对管理层的激励机制不完善、待遇不足是动机偏离的内因,而企业价值能够被低估是动机偏离的诱因,究其实质则是由于我国国有企业产权不清晰、金融市场和价格形成机制不健全、法律法规不完善等原因造成的,进而得出在我国目前的条件下不宜大规模实行管理层收购。