Moderate Deviation Principles for Empirical Covariance in the Neighbourhood of the Unit Root

In this paper, we consider the linear autoregressive model with varying coefficients θ_n∈[0,1). When θ_n tending to the unit root, the moderate deviation principle for empirical covariance is discussed, and as statistical applications, we provide the moderate deviation estimates of the least square and the Yule–Walker estimators of the parameter θ_n.     

自贸试验区与张江国家自主创新示范区联动发展研究

结合上海自贸试验区与张江自主创新示范区联动发展的基础条件和存在问题,两者未来联动发展的总体方向应是:聚焦科技与金融的联动,打造科技创新核心载体,形成“1+1＞2”的强辐射区域.为此,应加快对接战略规划的顶层设计,加快建立联动发展的协同机制,加快构建联动发展的平台载体.     

上海产业发展与人口增长的联动效应及其对人口调控政策的启示

近年由于特殊的政策因素,特大城市常住人口增长与人口调控再次引起各界关注和争议。以上海为例,研究基于经济社会统计数据的客观分析,以及典型产业区人口劳动力动态调研,发现伴随产业发展而形成的人口劳动力集聚效应已经进入相对下滑阶段,"以业控人"为主导的特大城市人口调控政策目标与实际效果也有可能背道而驰。在此基础上,提出对策建议,适时转换人口调控思路,加快收入分配、社会保障等制度建设,完善现居住地人口配套服务机制。     

Static Hedging of Geometric Average Asian Options with Standard Options

In this article, we first establish a theorem that represents the price of an Asian option in terms of standard European options with a shorter term and different strikes. Then using Gauss–Hermite numerical integration, we discretize our theorem so as to use Monte Carlo simulation to examine the error of the static hedging under the Black–Scholes model and the Merton jump-diffusion model. For ease of comparison, we also provide the error of the dynamic hedging. The numerical results show that the static hedging strategy performs better than the dynamic one under both models.     

Gender and Children's Housework Time in China: Examining Behavior Modeling in Context

Differentiated gender roles in adulthood are rooted in one's gender role socialization. In order to understand the persistence of gender inequalities in the domestic sphere, we need to examine the gendered patterns of children's housework time. Although researchers have identified behavior modeling as a major mechanism of gender role reproduction and characterized gender socialization as a contextually embedded process, few have investigated contextual variation in behavior modeling, particularly in non‐Western developing countries. Analyzing data from the China Family Panel Studies 2010, the author examined the differences in behavior modeling between boys and girls age 10–15 from 2‐parent families (N = 1,903) in rural and urban China. The results revealed distinctive gendered interplays in the way parental housework and employment behavior helps shape children's housework time. This analysis is a crucial illustration of how the distinctive sociocultural contexts of rural and urban China moderate the effects of housework‐behavior modeling on intergenerational gender role socialization.     

ON THE INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE'S SERVICE AND ENFORCEMENT

Built on the seminal work of Graetz et al. (1986), this study considers a model of tax compliance in which the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) services as well as audits taxpayers as in the real world. Taxpayers are uncertain about whether their incomes are eligible for deduction/exemption, and may seek advice from the taxpayer service provided by the IRS to mitigate the uncertainty. We show: (1) while the society's preferred quality of taxpayer service is likely to be sufficiently high, the IRS's preferred quality of taxpayer service is only at an intermediate level; and (2) the conflict between the society and the IRS tends to be intensified as the cost of tax audits becomes lower. Evidence in support of our results is addressed. We also extend our model to addressing the issue of corruption in tax administration and to considering a dynamic model. (JEL D82, H26, K42)     

Nonparametric multiple expectile regression via ER-Boost

Expectile regression [Newey W, Powell J. Asymmetric least squares estimation and testing, Econometrica. 1987;55:819–847] is a nice tool for estimating the conditional expectiles of a response variable given a set of covariates. Expectile regression at 50% level is the classical conditional mean regression. In many real applications having multiple expectiles at different levels provides a more complete picture of the conditional distribution of the response variable. Multiple linear expectile regression model has been well studied [Newey W, Powell J. Asymmetric least squares estimation and testing, Econometrica. 1987;55:819–847; Efron B. Regression percentiles using asymmetric squared error loss, Stat Sin. 1991;1(93):125.], but it can be too restrictive for many real applications. In this paper, we derive a regression tree-based gradient boosting estimator for nonparametric multiple expectile regression. The new estimator, referred to as ER-Boost, is implemented in an R package erboost publicly available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/erboost/index.html. We use two homoscedastic/heteroscedastic random-function-generator models in simulation to show the high predictive accuracy of ER-Boost. As an application, we apply ER-Boost to analyse North Carolina County crime data. From the nonparametric expectile regression analysis of this dataset, we draw several interesting conclusions that are consistent with the previous study using the economic model of crime. This real data example also provides a good demonstration of some nice features of ER-Boost, such as its ability to handle different types of covariates and its model interpretation tools.     

A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Two-Way ANOVA Model Without Interaction Under Heteroscedasticity

In this article we consider the two-way ANOVA model without interaction under heteroscedasticity. For the problem of testing equal effects of factors, we propose a parametric bootstrap (PB) approach and compare it with existing the generalized F (GF) test. The Type I error rates and powers of the tests are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our studies show that the PB test performs better than the GF test. The PB test performs very satisfactorily even for small samples while the GF test exhibits poor Type I error properties when the number of factorial combinations or treatments goes up. It is also noted that the same tests can be used to test the significance of random effect variance component in a two-way mixed-effects model under unequal error variances.     

D-optimal Factorial Designs under Generalized Linear Models

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been used widely for modeling the mean response both for discrete and continuous random variables with an emphasis on categorical response. Recently Yang, Mandal and Majumdar (2013 Yang, J., Mandal, A., Majumdar, D. (2013). Optimal designs for 2^k factorial experiments with binary response. Technical Report, Available at: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1109.5320v4.pdf. [Google Scholar]) considered full factorial and fractional factorial locally D-optimal designs for binary response and two-level experimental factors. In this article, we extend their results to a general setup with response belonging to a single-parameter exponential family and for multilevel predictors.     

高师舞蹈教育与探究性学习

新一轮的高师课程改革,特别强调学生学习方式要从接受式学习向探究性学习转变,从某种意义上说,探究性学习具有更强的自主性和合作性,因而更能在学生情感、态度、价值观的培养和陶冶方面发挥重大作用。本文就高师舞蹈教育的培养目标等方面探讨了高师舞蹈教育与探究性学习的关系及应注意的问题。