沪市认购权证与其标的股票价格走势的Granger因果检验

运用G ranger因果检验的方法,检验沪市6只认购权证与其标的股票之间的因果关系。分析结果表明:在大样本条件下,认购权证与其标的股票之间存在单向的G ranger因果关系,权证的价格走势影响其标的股票的价格走势,说明从长期来看,认购权证发挥了其潜在的投资杠杆的作用,其价值发现与风险对冲功能在市场中得到实现;在小样本条件下,认购权证与其标的股票之间不存在显著的G ranger因果关系,表明短期内权证与其标的股票价格走势相互独立,市场中有可能存在对权证投机炒作,人为放大权证的投资风险,使权证背离其正常的投资价值。     

系统风险联动分析:以股市和银行间债市为例

金融子市场间系统风险的联动是决定目前监管政策趋向的一个重要因素,本文以中国银行间债市面向非金融机构开放为例,基于我国金融市场分业监管的现状,对两个股市和银行间债券市场之间的波动联动性进行了实证检验,并在此基础上,试图基于分析结果对金融子市场之间的资金流动现状做出分析和判断。     

初始资源、社会资本与创业行动效率——基于资源匹配视角的研究

创业者所拥有的初始资源基础及其可利用的社会资本对于新企业绩效的重要作用已被广泛证实,但对于二者在创业行动层面的角色尚缺乏深入探索.基于此,本文从关系强度与关系资源的角度考量社会资本,考察了初始资源、关系强度和关系资源与创业行动效率间的关系,以及资源获取匹配度对该作用过程的调节作用.结果显示,在创业过程中,拥有充裕的初始资源,能够利用丰富的社会资本的创业者更易于快速采取创业行动,促进新企业生成.当创业者利用关系资源获取与初始资源相匹配的资源时,关系资源促进创业行动效率的作用更为显著.本文的理论贡献在于深入行动效率挖掘初始资源与社会资本改善创业行动效率的作用机制,从资源匹配的视角剖析社会资本的作用机理,研究发现,社会资本作用的发挥源于其为创业者所提供资源的匹配效果,而非其自身的存量特征,这是解释创业行动效率差异的一个重要原因.     

治理环境、超额持有现金与过度投资——基于我国上市公司面板数据的分析

本文以2002-2006年非金融行业的上市公司为样本,考察公司超额持有现金是否导致过度投资,进而检验公司治理环境的改善能否抑制超额持有现金导致的过度投资行为,以及公司治理环境的这种作用是否与公司终极控制人性质有关.结果发现,公司超额持有现金会导致过度投资行为,而公司治理环境的改进有利于抑制公司超额持有现金导致的过度投资行为,但上市公司的国有性质弱化了公司治理环境的这种治理效应.     

带工期指派的产品服务系统订单随机调度问题研究

针对由一个制造工厂和多个区域服务中心组成的服务型制造企业,研究了考虑生产时间和服务时间均具有随机性且工期可指派的产品服务系统（PSS）订单调度问题。首先以最小化订单提前、误工和工期指派费用的期望总额为目标构建问题的优化模型,然后分析目标函数近似值的最优性条件,据此提出加权最短平均生产时间排序规则,并结合该规则与插入邻域局部搜索设计了启发式算法对问题进行求解,最后通过数值仿真验证算法的可行性和有效性。研究表明,提前费用偏差对PSS订单调度与工期指派决策的影响很小,因此企业管理者无需准确估计库存费用也能制定出比较有效的PSS订单调度策略;而工期指派费用偏差对决策结果的影响非常大,因此企业管理者在决策时必须谨慎估计该项费用。     

Three‐Stage Decision‐Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control

A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three‐stage decision‐making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, NUC ship, and ships passing by) under resource constraint in the first stage, (2) to select the most feasible options by comparing the similarity of the new case and existing cases in the second stage, and (3) to make decisions considering the cooperation between the involved organizations by using a developed Bayesian network in the third stage. Consequently, this work provides a useful tool to achieve well‐organized management of NUC ships.     

考虑订货协调成本与数量折扣的改良品供应链水平协调

在单个供应商与多个销售商构成的二级改良品供应链中,销售商们采用联合补货方式不仅可以分摊订货成本,而且由于订货批量的增加从而更易获得供应商提供的数量折扣合同。建立多个销售商在独立补货与联合补货中的利润水平函数,推导联合补货优于独立补货的充要条件。将销售商之间的联合补货行为转化成多人合作博弈问题,证明博弈具有的基本性质,设计基于博弈核心的利润分配方法。通过数值算例和敏感性分析验证了文中所构建模型的正确性。     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

‘It is not fair that you do not know we have problems’: Perceptual distance and the consequences of male leaders' conflict avoidance behaviours

This study investigates perceptual distance in terms of managers' conflict avoidance behaviour and its consequences for subordinates. We argue that perceptual distance, or the disagreement between a manager's perception and that of his or her subordinates of his or her conflict avoidance, is a genuine phenomenon. We examine the extent to which the perceptual distance regarding managers' avoidance behaviour influences a team's justice climate as well as the role of gender. The data collected from three multinational companies in China show that the perceptual distance of a male manager's avoidance behaviour exists and that it is associated with a negative justice climate within the team. These findings provide evidence of gender's effect on leadership and highlight the benefits of female leadership.     

国有企业再融资得到了政策倾斜——基于间隔期模型的实证分析

采用间隔期模型对中国上市公司首次公开发行与上市后的第一次再融资的融资间隔期进行了实证分析.研究表明,国有股比例越高,则首发后融资间隔期越短,而且这一结论在考察了公司的特征属性后是稳健的.更进一步的研究发现,国有股比例高的公司往往更达不到发行主管机构制定的关于再融资的净资产收益率标准.这2点发现表明:在股票发行核准制度框架下,国有企业再融资得到了政策倾斜.