偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计与预测绩效的影响

本文先运用蒙特卡洛模拟考察了偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计结果的影响并发现,若标准化扰动项偏斜且厚尾,基于对称厚尾分布的极大似然估计量渐近有偏.以上证指数收益为样本,利用SPA检验,实证考察了10种常见的GARCH族结构分别在正态分布、Student-t、GED以及Skew-t分布假设下的波动率预测绩效.结果发现:①Skew-t分布假设下的GARCH族结构能够获得优越的预测绩效;②10种GARCH族结构中,有8种模型在Student-t分布假设下的预测绩效不及正态分布,而GED分布假设下也有4种模型不及正态分布;③样本外观测值的多少以及GARCH-m结构的有无不改变主要结论.     

乡村文化变迁视野下的农村留守儿童教育

乡村文化对留守儿童具有较大教育功能,能够在一定程度上弥补留守儿童家庭教育的缺失,丰富留守儿童的精神生活。但是,乡村本土文化被边缘化,乡村家庭文化失序,乡村学校教育文化衰弱,乡村邻里关系逐渐陌生化等变迁对农村留守儿童的身心发展产生了深刻影响。在乡村文化变迁背景下,需要重视乡村文化建设,通过家庭、学校、邻里社区,树立留守儿童对乡村文化的认同,提高内在精神修养,促进健全人格的塑造,推进社会化发展。     

战后国民政府涉港事务处置个案研究——以张添祥事件为例

太平洋战争期间,国民政府争取香港主权的努力遭遇挫折,战后英国重返香港,中国在涉港事务中试图积极应对,争取国家利权。1946年12月3日,中国内地与香港边境的文锦渡发生一起英军越界开枪事件,造成宝安县居民张添祥死亡,即＂张添祥事件＂。事件发生后,广东地方当局和民意机构主张强硬外交,积极组织援助;国民政府外交当局亦介入善后,在民意舆论的压力下展开外交维权。最终,张添祥事件不了了之。     

心语沸腾王吉有

王吉有让人备感新鲜。 这股浓烈的新鲜感，缘自王吉有的话语。 王吉有今年70岁了，似乎前69年始终都闷着，直到今年才开了口似的，他的话就多得一塌糊涂。王吉有若进了人群，人群中就再难听到别人的声音，所有时间都将被他给霸占，所有空间都将被他的话语给充斥，     

朝向人性化改变的理论 ——《受压迫者教育学》的解读及对社会工作的启示?

《受压迫者教育学》是一本为从事改变工作的人提供的一个理论指南和一个变到哪里的标准，因为没有标准，我们很难辨识那些借用多元和不同而采用的非人性化改变的手段和目的。尤其对于社会工作来说，它提醒社会工作者改变世界的手段、方法和最终目的都要朝向人性化，警惕在改变过程中的假慈悲和假慷慨、宿命论和双重人格等这些非人性化手段，改变绝不能用意识灌输而是用对话，而且是一个教育过程，这个过程中改变的相关方一起受教育和一起变。该书为社会工作提供了一个将社会工作核心价值观—实现社会公正公益能够落地的更切实的理论和实践指南。     

初中起点幼师大学生历史课过度教学现象探析

一般而言，历史课及其任课教师是比较受初中起点幼师大学生欢迎的。与此同时，历史课教学中也时常不经意间在教学内容安排、教学方法运用和教学观点表达等方面出现过度教学现象。学生主体地位的异化，教学过程把控失当和教学反思的缺位，是造成过度教学的主要原因。消除过度教学现象的对策主要是坚持教学过程中学生的主体地位，掌握教学有度的艺术和重视教学反思。     

Housing hardship and energy insecurity among native-born and immigrant low-income families with children in the United States

The costs for rent and utilities account for the largest share of living expenses, yet these two critical dimensions of material hardship have seldom been examined concurrently in population-based studies. This paper employs multivariate statistical analysis using American Community Survey data to demonstrate the relative risk ratio of low-income renter-occupied households with children experiencing ‘rent burden', ‘energy insecurity', or a ‘double burden’ as opposed to no burden. Findings suggest that low-income households are more likely to experience these economic hardships in general but that specific groups are disproportionately burdened in different ways. For instance, whereas immigrants are more likely to experience rental burden, they are less likely to experience energy insecurity and are also spared from the double burden. In contrast, native-born African Americans are more likely than all other groups to experience the double burden. These results may be driven by the housing stock available to certain groups due to racial residential segregation, decisions regarding the quality of housing low-income householders are able to afford, as well as home-country values, such as modest living and energy conservation practices, among immigrant families. This paper also points to important policy gaps in safety net benefits related to housing and energy targeting low-income households.     

英语"wh-继续分句"的功能再分析及其翻译

文章尝试从系统功能语法的角度对“wh-继续分句”再次分析，研究发现这种特殊继续分句还具有一些新特点:“wh-继续分句”的引导词不仅可能是which，还有可能是who、where、when等代词或副词；“wh-继续分句”不仅可以对前面起始句进行延伸，还可能进行发挥/增强。同时作者就这种特殊继续分句的英汉翻译进行了对比分析，再次证明了系统功能语言学对翻译理论与实践研究的指导意义和优势。      

Contents of heavy metals in arable soils and birth defect risks in Shanxi, China: a small area level geographic study

The burgeoning demands of China’s urbanization and industrial development put pressure on the resources of the entire country and have direct and indirect effects on the health of individuals, at times in areas far removed from cities themselves. Current evidence suggests that heavy metal pollution in soil, a common by-product of coal mining and other industrial activities, may be linked to risk of birth defects. We examine this hypothesis using small area level data including soil samples and detailed birth records from 2002 to 2004 from 97 villages in Shanxi province, a heavy coal-mining region. We find that soils containing arsenic, lead, and nickel are significantly correlated with the incidence of birth defects. In particular, we find a strong positive dose-dependent association of birth defects with lead, a moderate positive effect with arsenic, and a dose-dependent negative association with nickel. These results are consistent with the postulated link between arsenic and lead and human birth defects, but raise questions about the effects of nickel in this context. China’s rapid urbanization underscores the need for closer attention to the relationship between the health and the environment.