国家级电视媒体在维吾尔族观众中影响力研究

中央电视台作为我国唯一真正实现了全国覆盖的国家级电视媒体,在维吾尔族观众中影响力的大小,是一个与民族团结和社会和谐密切相关的问题。通过对央视在维吾尔族观众中影响力情况的问卷调查和小组访谈,可以看出,整体上央视的影响力颇为强劲,可堪使命,但也存在一些潜在的问题,需要在以后的工作中逐步解决。     

校企合作构建第二课堂的实施效果分析及评价——基于圣奥班(家具设计专业)毕业生跟踪问卷的调查

南京林业大学与浙江圣奥(木业)集团联合创建的“圣奥班”是校企合作联合培养创新型家具设计工程专业人才的成功平台之一.基于圣奥班毕业生的问卷调查,对学生进班动机与目标定位、比较优势、获得的帮助、专业能力提升,以及今后办班建议等方面内容进行了分析.统计结果表明,学校和企业共同搭建的圣奥班平台对学生创新意识,专业能力、就业竞争力等诸多方面都有显著的提升.     

A modified LGB method for detecting significant effects based on a half-normal probability plot

In analyzing data from unreplicated factorial designs, the half-normal probability plot is commonly used to screen for the ‘vital few’ effects. Recently, many formal methods have been proposed to overcome the subjectivity of this plot. Lawson (1998) (hereafter denoted as LGB) suggested a hybrid method based on the half-normal probability plot, which is a blend of Lenth (1989) and Loh (1992) method. The method consists of fitting a simple least squares line to the inliers, which are determined by the Lenth method. The effects exceeding the prediction limits based on the fitted line are candidates for the vital few effects. To improve the accuracy of partitioning the effects into inliers and outliers, we propose a modified LGB method (hereafter denoted as the Mod_LGB method), in which more outliers can be classified by using both the Carling’s modification of the box plot (Carling, 2000) and Lenth method. If no outlier exists or there is a wide range in the inliers as determined by the Lenth method, more outliers can be found by the Carling method. A simulation study is conducted in unreplicated $2^4$ designs with the number of active effects ranging from 1 to 6 to compare the efficiency of the Lenth method, original LGB methods, and the proposed modified version of the LGB method.     

“破冰”还是“破茧”:中国文学走出去——顾彬教授与方汉文教授的对话

中国文学走出去面临"破冰"1与"破茧"2的双重挑战。对话双方从中国现当代小说与古典小说传统之间因时代变迁所形成的非传统性、传统小说与西方小说艺术表达与再现方式的不同之处、如何从世界文学史角度来评价中国小说诗歌价值等问题交流看法。也无可避免地涉及到当代中国作家的评价,双方观点同异并存,既有交锋又有融合,体现了不同文化观念在这一话题评价的对话性,文中充满了直率的评价,目标是为了中国文学的世界化,而不是褒贬人物。     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.     

从玛丽·沃斯通克拉夫特看英国启蒙时期的女性教育观

在启蒙时期的英国,女性仍然主要被禁锢在家庭这个私人领域,女子教育以家庭非正式教育模式为主。这一时期大部分男性启蒙思想家的女性教育理念与宗旨是使女性"依附"与"屈从"于男性,而以沃斯通克拉夫特为代表的一些女性知识分子开始意识到教育对女性解放的重要性,批判两性不平等的根源,提出培育女性的理性、发展新型女子教育的主张。本文分析了启蒙时期英国女性教育理论之争,探讨了沃斯通克拉夫特女性教育理论的主要内容及其对启蒙时期女性教育观的影响,以及她与同时代思想家就女性教育主张的异同点。     

英语中汉语借词研究新探

英语词汇中存在大量源自其他语言的借词,其中也包括一定数量的汉语词。对英语外来语词典的考察及问卷调查发现,一部分汉语借词具有较高的认知度,而有一些词则不为英语母语者所熟悉。虽然对于"中国英语"是否可以看作是英语的一种变体还有争议,但在世界英语的语境下,汉语借词正在为英语词汇的扩展做出新的贡献。     

流水不腐,户枢不蠹:创新型地方政府与经济高质量发展——基于僵尸企业的研究视角

本文采用文本分析法从政府工作报告中提炼出创新型地方政府的风格特征,在验证该量化方法合理性的基础上,以僵尸企业为研究切入点,以我国工业企业为研究样本,实证检验政府施政风格所扮演的角色。研究发现:当地方政府施政风格创新程度越高时,当地企业僵尸化程度越低。异质性检验还发现:创新型地方政府会更多地促进社会重要性相对较低的僵尸企业“脱僵”,减少这部分企业的僵尸化现象。本文研究对于探索新发展格局下如何转化政府职能、寻求经济增长新动力、实现经济高质量发展具有积极的实践意义。     

基于最近邻分析的空气质量时空数据异常点识别

空气质量数据具有在时间上连续、空间上相关的特点,这提高了异常点识别的难度.本文提出在时间维度上运用移动平均法,在空间维度上运用反距离加权法对观测值进行预测并求残差的解决思路,从而将时空数据的异常点识别问题转化为二维残差值的异常点检测问题.通过仿真验证表明新方法具有良好的检出力.最后将新方法应用于北京市实际观测数据,取得了满意的识别效果.     

A Semiparametric Regression Model for Longitudinal Data with Non‐stationary Errors

Motivated by the need to analyze the National Longitudinal Surveys data, we propose a new semiparametric longitudinal mean‐covariance model in which the effects on dependent variable of some explanatory variables are linear and others are non‐linear, while the within‐subject correlations are modelled by a non‐stationary autoregressive error structure. We develop an estimation machinery based on least squares technique by approximating non‐parametric functions via B‐spline expansions and establish the asymptotic normality of parametric estimators as well as the rate of convergence for the non‐parametric estimators. We further advocate a new model selection strategy in the varying‐coefficient model framework, for distinguishing whether a component is significant and subsequently whether it is linear or non‐linear. Besides, the proposed method can also be employed for identifying the true order of lagged terms consistently. Monte Carlo studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of our approach, and an application of real data is also illustrated.