论《弗朗西斯·麦康伯短暂的幸福生活》的叙述与描写

在海明威的短篇小说中,《弗朗西斯·麦康伯短暂的幸福生活》的叙述艺术别具一格,具有极大的艺术魅力。就其叙述方式说,横断面写法、围绕主题选择时间切点、张弛有致的节奏、悬念丛生的结局,显示了海明威构思的精巧。就其描写方式说,神态描写、语言描写,特别是肖像描写、心理描写,显示了海明威描写的传神。这些精巧的构思与传神的描写构成了小说的结构艺术特色。     

论建设社会主义和谐社会必须以科学发展观为指导

以科学发展观为统领,建设社会主义和谐社会,是中国共产党人在新世纪新阶段的重大战略任务。建设社会主义和谐社会要坚持以科学发展观为指导,大力发展先进生产力、先进文化,正确处理好人民内部的矛盾。同时,要进一步深化经济体制、政治体制、教育文化体制和社会管理体制等方面的改革,按照科学发展观所贯穿的基本原则和精神,不断开拓建设社会主义和谐社会的新思路和新境界。     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Semiparametric sieve maximum likelihood estimation under cure model with partly interval censored and left truncated data for application to spontaneous abortion

Lifetime Data Analysis - This work was motivated by observational studies in pregnancy with spontaneous abortion (SAB) as outcome. Clearly some women experience the SAB event but the rest do not....     

Comfort with discussions about death,religiosity, and attitudes about end‐of‐life care

In end‐of‐life (EOL) care research, death anxiety and religiosity are often overlooked. Terror management theory (TMT) may provide a useful conceptual model with which to examine how comfort discussing death and religiosity influence attitudes related to EOL care. A telephone‐based survey was conducted among community‐dwelling adults in the Unites States. Via random sampling, with over‐sampling of Hispanics/African Americans, 123 completed survey interviews (response rate = 46%) were analyzed. Respondents were more likely to have better attitudes toward EOL care if they were older or white, religiously active, and comfortable with the subject of death. Religiosity and comfort discussing death were correlated with each other and remained significant predictors of attitudes about EOL care even without demographic covariates. Findings suggest that promoting an open dialogue about mortality may improve attitudes about EOL care and utilization of palliative care services. The study also provides evidence about the utility and applicability of TMT for EOL care.     

Comparison on predictors of mental health service use among Asian older adults

Studies have mostly examined mental health service use of older Asian immigrant combining all Asian Americans into one group whereas immigration backgrounds and socioeconomic status of each Asian minority group are different. Therefore, this study aimed to identify predictors of mental health service use within specific ethnic groups among older Asian adults focusing on Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Filipino, and Vietnamese in California. The Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations (BMVP) is used to guide the secondary data analysis of a sample of 3,453 older Asian immigrants from the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS). Logistic and linear regression analyses are performed to examine predictors of mental health service use and the frequency of mental health service use, respectively. As results, mental health‐seeking patterns differ by ethnicity within the older Asian immigrant sample, not being married (Korean), higher levels of acculturation (Filipino), lower levels of neighborhood cohesion (Korean and Vietnamese), higher levels of perceived safety (Korean) and lower levels of perceived safety (Vietnamese), higher levels of mental distress (Korean and Filipino), and having perceived need (all) were related to more visits for mental health services. The study findings highlight the necessity of cultural competency services and programs for each Asian ethnicity.     

Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability to Spatially Localized Failures with Applications to Chinese Railway System

This article studies a general type of initiating events in critical infrastructures, called spatially localized failures (SLFs), which are defined as the failure of a set of infrastructure components distributed in a spatially localized area due to damage sustained, while other components outside the area do not directly fail. These failures can be regarded as a special type of intentional attack, such as bomb or explosive assault, or a generalized modeling of the impact of localized natural hazards on large‐scale systems. This article introduces three SLFs models: node centered SLFs, district‐based SLFs, and circle‐shaped SLFs, and proposes a SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method from three aspects: identification of critical locations, comparisons of infrastructure vulnerability to random failures, topologically localized failures and SLFs, and quantification of infrastructure information value. The proposed SLFs‐induced vulnerability analysis method is finally applied to the Chinese railway system and can be also easily adapted to analyze other critical infrastructures for valuable protection suggestions.     

人民币汇率的双成分混合波动率模型

汇率波动性预测在金融和计算领域一直受到广泛关注,然而由于缺乏可以捕捉汇率波动动态变化的预测模型,高频汇率的波动率预测至今没有得到彻底的研究.文章提出了基于神经网络的双成分混合汇率波动率模型,该模型利用低通Hodrick-Prescott滤波器将已实现波动率分解为长期分量和短期分量,使用自回归神经网络模拟长期分量,一阶自回归过程模拟短期分量,通过实证分析确定自回归神经网络参数(10个隐神经元和四阶滞后输入神经元),以6种主要高频率汇率(英镑/人民币,美元/人民币,澳元/人民币,欧元/人民币,日元/人民币,和瑞士法郎/人民币),在5 h(d)、20 h(d)、100 h(d)、200 h(d)、360 h(d)和500 h(d)的预测区间构建1 h和1 d已实现波动率,并与双成分GARCH模型、EGARCH模型、四阶滞后自回归神经网络模型3个基准模型进行对比,分析模型的预测性能,实验评估表明,提出的混合预测模型在所有预测的范围内均显著地优于传统人民币汇率波动模型.     

冀南红色革命旧址建筑现状调研

红色革命旧址建筑完整的将那段红色峥嵘岁月呈现于世人眼前,同时也是我们回顾红色革命精神与历史的重要载体。本文以冀南地区红色革命旧址建筑为研究对象,通过实地考察与资料收集两种手段,对其历史背景与现状有了初步认识。将冀南地区红色革命旧址建筑根据当时行政功能划分为四类：党政机构、军事机构、后勤保障机构、宣传教育机构。并对其现有建筑特点进行了初步讨论,为下步探讨其保护与活化打下良好基础。