A Bayesian piecewise exponential phase II design for monitoring a time-to-event endpoint

A robust Bayesian design is presented for a single-arm phase II trial with an early stopping rule to monitor a time to event endpoint. The assumed model is a piecewise exponential distribution with non-informative gamma priors on the hazard parameters in subintervals of a fixed follow up interval. As an additional comparator, we also define and evaluate a version of the design based on an assumed Weibull distribution. Except for the assumed models, the piecewise exponential and Weibull model based designs are identical to an established design that assumes an exponential event time distribution with an inverse gamma prior on the mean event time. The three designs are compared by simulation under several log-logistic and Weibull distributions having different shape parameters, and for different monitoring schedules. The simulations show that, compared to the exponential inverse gamma model based design, the piecewise exponential design has substantially better performance, with much higher probabilities of correctly stopping the trial early, and shorter and less variable trial duration, when the assumed median event time is unacceptably low. Compared to the Weibull model based design, the piecewise exponential design does a much better job of maintaining small incorrect stopping probabilities in cases where the true median survival time is desirably large.     

我国货币供应量与物价关系的实证分析

Starting from increase rate of money supply and rising rate of retail price of commodity, the paper analyzes the relationship between increase of money supply and retail price fluctuation of commodity during the two time period of serious inflation since the commencement of China’s reform and opening policy.     

Socioeconomic Inequality and Life Satisfaction in Late Childhood and Adolescence: A Moderated Mediation Model

An increasing number of studies have established an association between socioeconomic inequality and life satisfaction, but the underlying mediating and moderating mechanisms of this association have not been fully identified. The present study investigated the effect of family socioeconomic status (SES) on life satisfaction in late childhood and adolescence; examined the mediating effect of optimism in the association between family SES and life satisfaction; and tested whether this mediating process varied across late childhood and adolescence. A sample of 552 Chinese children in late childhood (M _age = 10.73 years, SD = 0.96) and 637 Chinese adolescents (M _age = 14.71 years, SD = 1.60) was recruited to complete questionnaires regarding family SES, optimism, and life satisfaction. Results indicated that socioeconomic inequality was associated with life satisfaction in Chinese children and adolescents. Moreover, optimism partially mediated the relation between family SES and life satisfaction, and developmental period moderated this mediation effect. Specifically, the mediation effect was found in adolescence, but not in late childhood, indicating an adolescent-emergent model (Chen et al. in Psychol Bull 128(2):295–329, 2002; in Soc Sci Med 62(9):2161–2170, 2006). The meaning and implications of socioeconomic inequality in different development periods and applied considerations to improve life satisfaction in late childhood and adolescence are discussed.     

全球边疆：美国对外关系中的比较史与边疆研究路径

长期以来,美国对外关系研究的新路径并没有对例外论者的假设构成挑战,同时也无法对全球范围内的美国经验提供一个比较视角。最近开展的边地（borderland）和边疆（frontier）研究则为历史学家提供了一个深入到文化遭遇、文化认同转变以及国家政治边缘的富有价值的视角,并可以对周边地区的人力和自然资源如何整合到更大的经济交换体系这一过程进行分析。在对边疆研究的域外经验与实践进行系统梳理之后,本文指出,有必要将边疆路径引入美国对外关系研究的领域,这样不仅有助于相关研究的推进,而且能够突破特纳理论的局限,进而更全面地看待包括当代跨国市场等在内的美国的内部发展与海外扩张历程。     

空间外溢视角下的协同创新与区域产业升级

本文从空间维度廓清了协同创新对区域产业升级的空间外溢机制和外溢效应边界形成机理。采用中国分省区面板数据,利用地理距离和社会经济特征多种空间权重矩阵设定的空间杜宾(Durbin)模型实证检验了协同创新对产业升级的影响。结果表明：协同创新对产业升级既有区域内溢出效应,也有区域间溢出效应。空间外溢效应在很大程度上通过创新要素区际流动来实现,且呈现出地理距离衰减特征。进一步考虑地理区位特征差异发现：空间外溢对产业升级的带动效应在中部地区最强,西部地区次之,东部地区最弱。本研究结果有助于全面认识协同创新作用机制,对推动区域间良性互动,实现产业升级发展具有重要现实意义。     

旅游信息资源整合推动山西旅游文化的发展

山西省是国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革试验区,如何有效地整合利用现有资源来推动山西旅游文化乃至旅游经济的大发展已是势在必行。解决山西旅游文化发展存在的问题,就必须对旅游文化信息内容、导游人员、信息技术等资源和旅游文化管理过程等进行科学有效的整合。     

汉语隐喻的三种英译方法

关于隐喻翻译方法,国外学者已经进行了系统化的研究,Toury、Nida和Kraszewsk三人各自提出了对隐喻翻译的指导原则;国内学者结合国外学者的研究,根据汉语本身的特点,对汉语中隐喻现象的翻译提出自己的方法。汉语隐喻译成英语有以下三种方法：字面直译法、意义对等目标语隐喻寻求法和纯粹的解释性翻译法。     

华北抗日根据地的医疗卫生事业

抗战时期,华北根据地遭受了严重的天灾敌祸。疾疫的流行,不但给根据地人民带来了肉体上的痛苦,也给他们造成了重大的财产损失。根据地党组织和人民政权大力普及医药卫生知识,充分利用可支配的医疗卫生机构,积极组织民间医生并发挥他们的医疗能力,尽可能地减轻了人民群众的伤病痛苦,为华北根据地的发展壮大做出了重要贡献。     

制约我校高水平运动队可持续发展的主要因素与对策

运用文献资料法和逻辑分析法等分析了制约我校高水平运动队可持续发展的主要因素,提出了实现我校高水平运动队可持续发展的具体对策.     

从我国弱势群体的弱势特征看社会政策支助体系的设计框架——基于北京市老年残疾人视角的分析

建立科学的社会政策支助体系是满足弱势群体需求和推进和谐社会建设的重要方面。本文以北京市老年残疾人为对象,具体分析了弱势群体的弱势特征,并依据这些特征提出了包括政策目标、政策依据、政策原则、政策构架等部分的社会政策支助体系的设计框架。