文姜小议

春秋时齐国女子文姜因性生活问题，遭到后人多方面的贬斥.文姜出嫁鲁国后，鲁国在齐鲁争强中逐渐失势，文姜数度以国君之礼与齐国国君会晤，协调齐鲁关系，增强了鲁国的实力和地位，但史家们却未给予应有的评价.本文认为，文姜不失为古代一位颇有才能的女外交家，不应以瑕掩瑜.     

对学校法制教育状况的反思

本文对学校法制教育的理念、教育实效和课程构建等问题加以探究。     

流动蒸汽在正弦型纵槽管内凝结换热的实验研究

本文从实验的角度出发,对正弦型剖面的纵槽管进行了研究。找出了局部换热量与纵向坐标的关系。在拟合准则方程时,文中引进了一个新的特征参数L_c。并以此得到无量纲纵坐标z/L_c替代其他学者用实验段管长L来得到无量纲纵坐标z/L。且指出了原方法的不足之处。     

Establishing decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment models

ABSTRACT

Traditional credit risk assessment models do not consider the time factor; they only think of whether a customer will default, but not the when to default. The result cannot provide a manager to make the profit-maximum decision. Actually, even if a customer defaults, the financial institution still can gain profit in some conditions. Nowadays, most research applied the Cox proportional hazards model into their credit scoring models, predicting the time when a customer is most likely to default, to solve the credit risk assessment problem. However, in order to fully utilize the fully dynamic capability of the Cox proportional hazards model, time-varying macroeconomic variables are required which involve more advanced data collection. Since short-term default cases are the ones that bring a great loss for a financial institution, instead of predicting when a loan will default, a loan manager is more interested in identifying those applications which may default within a short period of time when approving loan applications. This paper proposes a decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment model to assess the credit risk. The goal is to use the decision tree to filter the short-term default to produce a highly accurate model that could distinguish default lending. This paper integrates bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) with a synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) into the credit risk model to improve the decision tree stability and its performance on unbalanced data. Finally, a real case of small and medium enterprise loan data that has been drawn from a local financial institution located in Taiwan is presented to further illustrate the proposed approach. After comparing the result that was obtained from the proposed approach with the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, it was found that the classifying recall rate and precision rate of the proposed model was obviously superior to the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models.     

职业生涯研究

一职业构成状况是社会学研究中重要的变量之一。从宏观的角度看,一个社会的职业构成表明了该社会的分工水平;从微观角度看,社会行动者从事的某种职业说明着个人的社会地位。这两方面多在传统社会学研究中有所体现,其研究更多地具有结构性特征。职业生涯概念的引入力图对此有所突破,一方面它试图把宏观层面和微观层面的职业研究相结合,既关注社会行动者在劳动分工中占有的一系列职业地位,也关注社会行动者职业变动背后的社会因素;另一方面,它也试图把过程因素与结构因素相结合,个人的职业发展或职业连续性的变动在职业生涯的概念下成为社会的…     

模块课程:高中新课程结构的亮点

普通高中新课程从纵向上将课程分为学习领域、科目和模块三个层次.学习领域设置于科目之上,其宗旨就在于打通科目之间的壁垒,将内容相近的科目整合为大的学习领域,在学习领域之内加强科目之间的沟通与联系.科目之下设置模块,每个模块都有明确的教育目标,并围绕某一特定内容,整合学生经验和相关内容,构成相对完整的学习单元.这样的结构框架在我国以往的普通高中课程中是从未有过的.因此,有必要对模块课程这一高中新课程的组织形式进行深入的研究,明确它的含义,在新课程中的地位与特点,以及它在新课程中的意义和价值,建构对模块课程的正确理解,使得能更好地指导高中新课程的实践.     

马克思主义环境思想释义

随着对环境问题研究的日益深入，马克思主义环境思想也越来越引起人们的关注。在这一崭新的研究领域，由于研究者们在研究内容、方向、角度以及层次方面的差异，导致了称谓上的混乱。“马克思主义环境思想”为什么不能称之为“马克思的环境保护思想”，也不能称之为“马克思的生态思想”或“马克思主义生态学”？“马克思主义环境思想”和“生态马克思主义”的关系怎样？本文对上述问题给出了回答。     

开发利用北仑─金塘岛深水港资源加快建成上海国际航运中心

文章围绕建设上海国际航运中心的关键问题，提出了抉择上海国际航运中心深水港址的原则和对目前许多深水港方案面临问题的看法，认为开发利用北仑─金塘岛深水港资源是建设上海国际航运中心深水港的最佳方案，并对建设上海国际航运中心需要统一的思想认识问题作了阐述