当前"伊扎布特"组织在中亚发展态势研究

"伊扎布特"是一个国际宗教极端组织,20世纪90年代开始在中亚地区发展蔓延.当前"伊扎布特"组织在中亚的发展态势包括逐步实现公开化、合法化,政治化趋势明显,发展趋于社会化,在意识形态领域散布极端宗教思想;明显的暴力恐怖化倾向,与国际恐怖势力联手,向中国边疆地区渗透."伊扎布特"在中亚的发展态势给新疆及周边国家和地区的安全带来严重的影响.     

作为南方道德想像历史的《喧哗与骚动》

福克纳在《喧哗与骚动》中建构了美国南方的道德想像的历史,以建构的载体为标准,可以将之分为三个层面,即意象、南方神话与历史观,从而可看出基于不同的层面所建构的对于社会历史的解释,也即三种道德想像的历史:昆丁的过去与现在的共存及对现在的压迫;旧南方的辩护型的自我安慰;和福克纳的痛苦中的批判反思。与此同时文本中也将三种自我身份的建构呈现出来,即昆丁的他我、旧南方的美化的想象的自我、和福克纳的批判反思的自我。     

Ethnic differences in neighbourly relations in urban China

Using data collected in Lanzhou, this paper examines the effect of minority ethnicity on neighbourly relations in China. It shows that the Hui as a whole express a higher level of satisfaction at relations with neighbours than the Han do. It also shows that the Hui advantage is removed with key background characteristics controlled. Finally, this paper shows intra-group variation among the Hui. These findings suggest that social status is a better predictor of neighbourly relations than the focus on inter-group contrast in traditionality in the existing scholarship of the Hui. Both inter- and intra-group variation in urban life must be examined to attain a more balanced picture of Hui Muslims in China.     

Assessing Major Accident Risks to Support Land‐Use Planning Using a Severity‐Vulnerability Combination Method: A Case Study in Dagushan Peninsula,China

Major accident risks posed by chemical hazards have raised major social concerns in today's China. Land‐use planning has been adopted by many countries as one of the essential elements for accident prevention. This article aims at proposing a method to assess major accident risks to support land‐use planning in the vicinity of chemical installations. This method is based on the definition of risk by the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS (ARAMIS) project and it is an expansion application of severity and vulnerability assessment tools. The severity and vulnerability indexes from the ARAMIS methodology are employed to assess both the severity and vulnerability levels, respectively. A risk matrix is devised to support risk ranking and compatibility checking. The method consists of four main steps and is presented in geographical information‐system‐based maps. As an illustration, the proposed method is applied in Dagushan Peninsula, China. The case study indicated that the method could not only aid risk regulations on existing land‐use planning, but also support future land‐use planning by offering alternatives or influencing the plans at the development stage, and thus further enhance the roles and influence of land‐use planning in the accident prevention activities in China.     

推进京津冀成为世界级创新平台和增长极

推进京津冀协同发展、打造世界级创新平台和增长极是2019年中央经济工作会议的指示精神。京津冀地区通过顶层设计引领产业协同平台建设、通过区域创新生态系统的不断恢复和城市群创新网络的构建等加速建设世界级创新平台。京津冀城市群、北京新机场、天津全国先进制造业基地的建设以及河北数字经济的发展等极大地推动了京津冀地区成为具有国际竞争力的区域增长极。展望未来,期待京津冀协同发展在国家治理体系与治理能力现代化、支撑全国经济发展、基本公共服务共建共享以及生态城市建设等方面走在全国前列。     

Generalized phase I-II designs to increase long term therapeutic success rate

Designs for early phase dose finding clinical trials typically are either phase I based on toxicity, or phase I-II based on toxicity and efficacy. These designs rely on the implicit assumption that the dose of an experimental agent chosen using these short-term outcomes will maximize the agent's long-term therapeutic success rate. In many clinical settings, this assumption is not true. A dose selected in an early phase oncology trial may give suboptimal progression-free survival or overall survival time, often due to a high rate of relapse following response. To address this problem, a new family of Bayesian generalized phase I-II designs is proposed. First, a conventional phase I-II design based on short-term outcomes is used to identify a set of candidate doses, rather than selecting one dose. Additional patients then are randomized among the candidates, patients are followed for a predefined longer time period, and a final dose is selected to maximize the long-term therapeutic success rate, defined in terms of duration of response. Dose-specific sample sizes in the randomization are determined adaptively to obtain a desired level of selection reliability. The design was motivated by a phase I-II trial to find an optimal dose of natural killer cells as targeted immunotherapy for recurrent or treatment-resistant B-cell hematologic malignancies. A simulation study shows that, under a range of scenarios in the context of this trial, the proposed design has much better performance than two conventional phase I-II designs.     

住房攀比与居民消费

本文基于CFPS微观跟踪调查数据,从地位寻求角度分析了住房攀比行为对城镇家庭消费的影响。结果表明：①家庭对自身社会地位等级的主观评价与住房面积、消费水平、户主学历等因素呈显著的正相关关系;②住房面积攀比对城镇家庭消费有明显的抑制作用;③社会地位高的家庭的消费行为对其它家庭的示范效应显著,即中国城镇家庭存在向上攀比的地位寻求动机。     

收入风险、金融教育与家庭金融市场参与

运用中国城市居民消费金融调查数据,基于因果推断的分析框架,采用倾向分值匹配法研究了收入风险、金融教育对家庭金融市场参与的影响。研究发现,收入越稳定,家庭开展金融教育的概率越高;金融教育显著提高了家庭的金融市场参与;按收入风险将样本分组后,上述结论依然稳健,且金融教育对不同家庭金融市场参与的影响具有非对称性。在对家庭收入稳定性分类的基础上,有针对性地增加金融教育的供给,提升家庭整体的金融教育水平,有利于提高家庭金融市场参与度,优化家庭金融资产配置,进而改善家庭金融福利。     

政治哲学的“规定”及其当代性

与“什么是哲学”的答案始终悬而未决一样,“什么是政治哲学”这个问题也为学界争论多年而从未有过“公论”。可以明确的是,尽管政治哲学是具有深远历史传统和丰厚思想资源的研究领域,但将这种研究领域命名为政治哲学却是现代学科构建过程中的晚近事件。以现代政治的现实视角对古典政治哲学的回顾和归纳大致界定了政治哲学的本性、研究对象与致思方式,也在古典与现代的贯通中明晰了政治哲学的当代性。可以说,