A simple method for projecting or estimating α and β: An extension of the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model

This paper proposes a simple method that analytically links the parameters and , which are not demographically interpretableand measurable in the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model, with demographic measures of median age and interquartile range. We also extend the Brass model that deals only with age-specific fertility to age-parity-specific fertility, first marriage, divorce, remarriage, and leaving the parental home. The method has been successfully tested by fittings to 180 reliable observed demographic schedules in various countries and periods, and to nearly 10,000simulated schedules with various combinations of possible values (including the extremes) of and . Our proposed method that uses median age and interquartile range instead of and as input is useful in the population and family household projections. It releases the traditionalunrealistic assumption in population projections that the curve of the fertility schedule moves to the right or left in a parallel way. Instead, using our proposed method, one can assume that the demographic events would be delayed or advanced, while the curve becomes more spread or more concentrated, or, more specifically, assume that young people delay the events more than the older persons do, or vice versa. Our proposed method is also useful to formulate assumptions on future demographic trends for purposes of policy analysisand planning. It can be used to indirectly estimate demographic schedules when the detailed age-specific data are not currently available, which is useful for developing countries and sub-region studies in developed countries. A crucial point for a successful application of the method is that the standard schedule chosen can capture the general pattern of the demographic process in the population under study.     

Changing Demographic Characteristics and the Family Status of Chinese Women

The model developed in this paper extends Bongaarts's nuclear family model into a general one that accounts for both nuclear and three-generation families, and which is expected to be more widely applicable. In the paper a simulation and comparison of two cohorts of women who are assumed to live out their lives under demographic conditions of China in 1950–70 and 1981 is presented. The status distribution and expected years spent in different parities, marital statuses, being the child of surviving parent(s), being a parent of living children, and having responsibility for both elderly parent(s) and young children etc. are given. The consequences of the dramatic demographic changes are clearly demonstrated.     

中国人口再分布的社会经济合理性及其“多中心集聚”分析

文章通过人口、经济不均衡性及重心变动分析,充分揭示了当前我国人口分布的空间格局及其变化状况。结果表明,中国人口区域偏集依然严重,且还有加剧的趋势,同时“人口一经济”间的契合度也不高,甚至还出现人口重心移动与投资重心移动相背离的情况,这对近期人口空间格局的发展非常不利。为此,研究认为,在当前的中国人口、经济形势下,构建以“多中心集聚”为导向、“人的城镇化”为内涵的新型城镇化体系,是未来进行人口合理再分布的必由之举。     

社区青年就业促进机制研究——以上海市J区社区青年为例

我国目前城镇非正规就业的人数基本占到城镇部门总就业人口的一半,并且主要人群为社区青年.非正规就业青年的职业稳定和个人发展成为当前青年就业中的重要问题.通过对上海市某中心城区社区青年就业情况的普查和访谈发现,社区青年的主观就业意愿不强,心理素质和职业技能水平偏低,非正规就业者的基本权益难以保障.对于青年来说,发展问题与生存问题同样重要,因此,对社区青年实施职业生涯教育、鼓励社区青年开展创业活动、建立健全社会保障制度,才能逐步实现社会公平,促进社区青年的发展.     

探索接地和及物的文学理论——2012年文艺学研究热点扫描

2012年的文艺学研究看上去似乎波澜不惊,并没有如前些年一样高度集中地、持续性的研究热点.但在围绕文艺学向前发展的几个基本问题上,文艺学研究者做出了自己的努力和探索.2012年文艺学研究中给人印象最深刻的,就是在文艺学研究的几大关键领域,如文学理论、马克思主义文论、文化研究和文化批评以及对新的文学现实(视觉图像和新媒体文学)的关注中,研究者表达了对“接地性”、“及物的”以及与具有相同价值取向的“本土的”、“中国的”、“现实的”的关注,并且各个方面均有可圈可点的研究推进.     

民间金融领域立法及其走向

民间金融在我国长期以来处于“地下”状态,被制度所边缘化。这与我国一直以来对待民间金融的抑制政策不无关系。而这种抑制并没有能够使民间金融的发展放慢脚步,反而由于民间金融长期处于制度所无法控制的隐蔽状态．造成近年来民间金融事故发生。党的十八大召开后,以金融制度的改革为基础,引导民间金融的健康化、规模化、实体化发展,将成为促进我国金融市场有序发展的一个重要方面。     

天津市高密度城区公共空间防灾避险规划研究

分析了天津高密度城市的灾害特征,基于安全防灾视角,结合景观生态学与城市规划设计,提出了统筹规划用地布局、建构安全优先的网络结构、完善平灾结合的立体空间布局等原则,探索了高密度城区公共空间规划中防灾避险途径与设计方法。     

当代中国死刑观念变革的意义与理念

当代中国死刑观念对当代中国死刑的适用和改革有着重要的意义。它既能推动当代中国死刑制度的彻底变革,也能促进当代中国社会治理观念和社会治理能力的全面提升。在当代中国死刑观念变革中需要正确理念的指引。理性、宽容和人道是当代中国死刑观念变革的三个最重要的理念。其中,理性是当代中国死刑观念变革的最深层、最关键的解,宽容是当代中国死刑观念变革的最实在的解,人道是当代中国死刑观念变革最宏大的解。     

论我国农业CDM项目实施的法律保障

低碳农业是低碳经济的重要组成部分,碳金融的发展为低碳农业的发展提供了条件,是低碳农业发展的助推器。完善法制建设,构建农业CDM项目的法律保障体制,可以促进我国农业的可持续发展,确保粮食和食品安全,改善生态环境;也可以为碳金融的发展拓展空间。     

基于有声思维法翻译策略的实证研究

不同翻译能力的英语学习者所使用的翻译策略核心元素呈现出规律性差异;其译文质量与所采用的翻译策略频率具有一定的相关性.受试在翻译活动中使用得最多的四种翻译策略是发现问题、接受内在解决办法、源语重释和重复检验,这也是英语学习者翻译策略选择四大基本类型的核心组成部分.实验表明,尽管有声思维法翻译研究仍存在种种局限,但将其引入翻译教学有利于培养学生的翻译思维和解决问题的能力.