[A new study of the marital fertility model].]

The author critically examines the Coale-Trussell marital fertility model, asserting that it is not applicable to the situation in which the marital fertility rate decreases rapidly, such as in the case of China. The limitations of the Coale-Trussell model are outlined and a new model is developed, which is applicable to situations of both rapidly decreasing and moderately decreasing marital fertility rates. Empirical results drawn from an analysis of U.N. data for 1965 and 1981 indicate the greater accuracy and flexibility of the new model as compared with the Coale-Trussell model.     

中央财政预算透明度评价研究

21世纪以来,财政预算透明度受到了各国政府、国际组织和社会公众的高度关注,并由此展开了系列研究。本文界定了中央财政预算透明度的概念,从预算公开的法规性、及时性,预算信息的准确性、完整性、具体性、易懂性和获取预算信息的便利性等七方面,系统构造了70项衡量我国预算透明度的指标体系。最后,运用这一指标体系评价我国中央财政预算透明度的现状,并将其与国际情况进行比较分析,得出2011年我国中央财政预算透明度总指数为51%。     

也谈思想史的“个人性写作”

葛兆光先生严厉批判了教科书式的思想史写法,提出了思想史的“个人性写作”问题。然而,对“个人性写作”这一概念的内涵和外延,葛先生却语焉不详,对该问题的讨论不免失之笼统和草率。思想史的“个人性写作”有其特定的来源、内涵和外延,思想史“个人性写作”的科学性和适应性是应该获得阐释的延伸性问题。     

关于唤醒少数民族女性自我意识的几点思考——东乡族、保安族妇女与文化的发展

少数民族女性在社会生产活动和人口再生产活动中都承担着重要的任务,发挥着重要的作用。然而,在对西部一些少数民族地区的调查中发现,生活在农村中的少数民族女性并没有享受到应有的社会权利,而要想改变这一切,唤醒其自我意识是首要的。其一,营造环境以促使女性自我意识的萌生;其二,通过教育来推动女性自我意识的发展;其三,鼓励女性参与社会工作以强化自我意识。     

“听之金声玉振”——谢榛对诗歌音乐美的追求

音乐和诗歌具有天然的联系,音乐性是判断一首诗歌好坏的重要标准。自古以来,诗论家就认识到这一问题,并从多个角度加以阐述,但大多只言片语不成系统。及至明代,茶陵派诗人李东阳以“调”论诗,以“具眼”、“具耳”辨格,诗歌和音乐的关系得到极大的阐发,然其后鲜有系统的论述。嘉隆年间,“后七子”中的谢榛可以说是明代屈指可数的音韵大家,他对诗歌音乐美的重视构成了其论诗的重要一环。在《四溟诗话》中,谢榛主要从三个方面论述了诗歌音乐美的重要意义：音乐美是诗歌不可缺少的审美特征;音乐美对于表情达意有独特作用;以诗歌的音乐美为标准改前人诗歌。     

明代吴中诗文价值解读——以何良俊诗文创作为例

"诗言志,诗言情"是诗歌的最主要功能,然而后世之人自觉不自觉地把二者做了高下之分:言志之作往往得到更高的评价,而言情之作则往往受人冷漠.明代中期诗坛可谓上述情况的最好注脚:复古诗人、诗作无论是在当时还是在当下都受人青睐,而处于同一时期的吴中诗人群体则极少受人关注.然而实际上吴中诗人雅致的生活情趣,以及反映在诗文中的日常生活主题,对思考如何缓解我们当下日益繁重的生活压力不无裨益.     

简论觉囊派的佛教思想

觉囊派佛教思想的理论基础是“他空中观见”。它虽然突破了传统佛教的某些观点 ,甚至与之发生了尖锐的思想对立 ,但丰富了藏传佛教的思想内涵     

论英语会话中的言语性话题转换信号

文章探讨了英语会话中可充当话题转换信号的词语,以及它们各自在特定的言语环境中起到怎样的具体作用,以期说明话题转换尽管形式多样,但从言语信号上看,仍有一定的规则可循,仍然表现出一些基本特征。     

对2012年美国总统大选的政治传播学探讨——以奥巴马竞选团队的新媒体运用为例

2008年,奥巴马的竞选充分利用了互联网的优势,把美国政治引入Web 2.0时代。四年后的2012年,美国的传播环境在一些重要领域发生了变化。不仅互联网的影响力进一步加深,以推特为代表的社交媒体也已成为美国人生活中的重要组成部分。本文在总结这些变化的基础上观察了奥巴马竞选团队在2012年总统大选中对新媒体技术的运用,讨论和分析了相关变化对今后的美国总统大选以及政府日常施政带来的影响。     

Defender–Attacker Games with Asymmetric Player Utilities

The presence of strategic attackers has become an important factor in the security and protection of systems, especially since the 9/11/2001 attacks, and considerable efforts have been dedicated to its study. When defending against the strategic attacker, many existing studies assume that the attacker would seek to minimize the defender's utility, which implies that the defender and attacker have symmetric utilities. However, the attacker's objective is determined by its own valuation of the system and target of the attack, which is not necessarily consistent with the defender's utility. If the attacker unexpectedly targets a different utility, then the defense strategy might no longer be optimal. In particular, the defense strategy could be inferior if the attacker's utility is not known to the defender. This study considers a situation where the defender's utility is the system survivability and the attacker's utility is the expected number of destroyed elements in the system. We investigate possible attack strategies under these two different utilities and compare (a) the conservative defense strategy when the attack utility is unknown to the defender with (b) the optimal defense strategy when the attack utility is known to the defender. We show that the conservative protection strategy is still optimal under asymmetric utilities when the contest intensity is smaller than one.