新型城镇化发展质量提升创新驱动因素的实证分析

文章构建“创新驱动”视角下的新型城镇化发展质量评价指标体系,并测算出2000-2015年江、浙、沪的新型城镇化发展质量状况.依据三个地区“创新驱动”视角下的新型城镇化发展质量和影响因素的面板数据构建了随机效应变截矩模型,研究发现人力资本、技术创新、机构创新和制度创新等创新驱动因素对江、浙、沪新型城镇化发展质量提升起到重要的推动作用.     

宏观经济对国债利率期限结构的影响研究

文章用隐因子模型和无套利简约宏观金融模型分别对中国国债收益率曲线进行拟合和预测,发现将宏观因子加入利率期限模型后,国债收益率曲线的长端拟合和预测效果均有提升.经脉冲响应和方差分解分析后发现,CPI增长率主要通过影响短期收益率来影响收益率曲线,而工业增加值增长率主要通过影响长期收益率来影响收益率曲线.此外,简约宏观金融模型可以形成对宏观经济的预测,尤其是对工业增加值增长率的预测较为准确.     

基于中国股票高频交易数据的随机波动建模与应用

本文对近十五年多达17万笔高频交易数据研究发现,早晨9:30股市开盘期间收益回报显著为负值,而在下午3:00收盘前的5分钟集合竞价阶段的收益回报显著为正值,称这种现象为“首尾5分钟现象”.并且日内收益数据具有较为显著的季节效应或周期效应,本文首次提出利用具有季节效应的SVJt-s模型对上证综合指数的5分钟高频交易数据进行建模,并给出模型的两步估计方法.由于高频随机波动建模时的数据量巨大、计算负荷严重,模型的估计、评价以及预测评价方法都需进行相应的改进,本文主要通过APF方法计算边际似然和BF进行模型比较,并从模型的预测能力发现本文给出的具有季节效应的SVJt-s模型,优于通常的GARCH模型和基本随机波动模型,最后给出了模型在风险管理中的应用.     

环境公共治理政策的效果评价与优化组合研究

本文构建了包含环境治理体系的动态一般均衡模型,基于模型的研究发现,在经济增长方面生产者补贴较为有效;而技术研发补贴在技术进步中的作用十分显著,其通过“研发投入→绿色技术提升→降低污染物排放”的路径可以实现环境质量的改善.此外,本文还模拟了生产者补贴和技术研发补贴的政策组合对社会福利和污染排放的影响,结果显示,政府可以采用生产者价格补贴或技术研发补贴促进产出水平增长进而提高社会福利水平,同时增大生产者价格补贴和技术研发补贴的幅度则能够通过提高技术水平促使污染水平不断下降.最后,本文给出了社会福利增进与环境质量改善双重目标下生产补贴和技术研发补贴政策的可行性区域,进行了环境公共治理政策的优化组合研究.     

我国异质性产业体系低碳化发展的实现路径及其影响因素

本文建立了一个异质性产业体系低碳化发展路径选择的分析框架,通过超越对数形式的随机前沿生产函数,测算了我国29个省区产业体系生产技术及其效率和生产规模效率,以及能源使用技术及其效率和碳减排技术及其效率,并针对不同类型产业体系的低碳化发展提出政策建议.结果表明,我国异质性产业体系可以通过不同的结构升级和技术进步的选择形成适合于自身产业体系特征的低碳化发展路径.     

消费者异质性环保偏好下的绿色产品定价模型

文章研究了低碳环境下,需求受消费者环保偏好和消费水平影响的绿色产品定价问题.针对消费者购买行为,把消费者划分为绿色消费者和普通消费者,假设消费者对产品的估价是异质的,并服从均匀分布,通过构造效用函数得到消费者的购买行为.分别讨论了市场中存在单一垄断制造商和两个垄断制造商时生产模式的选择,研究表明:单一垄断制造商时,制造商的生产模式的选择取决于绿色消费者的比例;两个垄断制造商时,绿色产品制造商作为主导者,控制着市场中绿色产品和普通产品的市场占有率.     

中国城乡发展差距水平及其波动效应的实证

城乡发展差距是中国社会转型下最突出的矛盾之一.文章从经济、社会、文化、政治、生态五大维度构建中国城乡发展差距综合评价指标体系,以中国31个省份为研究区域,运用主成分分析法实证评价了中国城乡发展差距的现实水平及其波动效应.研究表明,中国城乡差距水平由东向西呈递增趋势,1985年至今城乡差距水平表现为一种波动性扩大的效应,城乡差距水平与城镇化发展水平表现为一种相互影响的逆向关系.     

Predicting the recipients of social work support,and its impact on emotional and behavioural problems in early childhood

This paper examines the recipients of social work support in the Millennium Cohort Study. Using panel analysis and fixed effects models, it investigates the factors that lead to the receipt of any type of social work support for individuals with young children and the effects of this support on changes in the prevalence of emotional and behavioural problems in these children. We find that divorce or separation, and episodes of homelessness are two important factors that lead to the receipt of social work support. Mothers with male children are also more likely to receive social work support. However, we find no clear evidence that social work support has any effect on changes in children's emotional and behavioural problems over time. The implications of these findings for social work research and for practice and policy are discussed.     

‘Nothing about us without us’: the emerging disability movement and advocacy in China

The disability movement and disabled persons’ self-help organizations (DPOs) are emerging in China, some of which succeeded in promoting policy and social changes with special strategies. Based on an original survey and interview, this article explains the development and survival strategies of China’s DPOs, and especially interprets some successful cases of social advocacy and policy advocacy in the emerging disability movement. It is hoped that scholars will pay more attention to the advocacy and public engagement of the disability community in non-western settings in the future.     

The impact of age,BMI and sex hormone on aging males’ symptoms and the international index of erectile function scores

Objective: To analyze the impact of age, BMI and sex hormone on aging males’ symptoms (AMS) and the 5-item version of the international index of erectile function (IIEF-5) scores in middle-aged and elderly Chinese men.

Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Jiashan County. A total of 969 men, aged between 40 and 80 years old, were admitted. Physical examination and the sex hormones were measured, and AMS and IIEF-5 scores were assessed.

Results: The oneway ANOVA analysis indicated older age groups had higher AMS total-scores, somatic and sexual sub-scores, and lower IIEF5 scores (all p?r_pairwise) analyses showed the significant associations between AMS and age or sex hormone (cFT, Bio-T, SHBG, and LH) levels, and similar for IIEF5. However, when age was adjusted, the correlation coefficients (r_partial) weakened, and correlation significance disappeared, except LH (for AMS: r_partial?=?0.096, p?=?.009; for IIEF-5: r_partial?= ?0.140, p?=?.001). Multiple linear regressions confirmed the influence of increased age and LH on the AMS and IIEF5 scores.

Conclusion: CFT, Bio-T and SHBG failed to yield any additional predicting information when age was adjusted. To improve the male reproductive health, future research should pay more attention on aging-related comorbidities and how to improve general wellness.