互联网深化、信息不确定性与企业出口平稳性

互联网作为信息搜寻和传播的重要渠道,有利于缓解国际市场不确定性对企业出口决策的影响,从而有助于稳定企业出口预期,保障出口企业的持续生存。本文首先基于Fernandes 和 Tang(2014)的研究框架将互联网深化程度和出口集聚同时纳入到异质性贸易企业模型,在剥离出口集聚对企业出口行为影响的基础上,从理论视角揭示了互联网深化程度提高影响企业出口行为特别是出口持续生存的内在机理与方向。研究发现,不同于出口集聚会同时影响企业的需求冲击和成本冲击,互联网深化带来的信息溢出效应会通过贝叶斯法则(Bayesian Rule)使得企业修正其对国际市场不确定性的预期,提高其对目的国市场成本冲击的估计精度,从而在互联网深化程度较高的城市,企业进入出口市场的临界生产率较低,有利于其出口参与度和出口稳定性的提高。然而互联网深化程度提高不影响企业在目的国市场产品出口的集约边际。本文使用2000-2013 年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和中国城市统计年鉴数据库的匹配数据从企业-目的国-产品层面实证检验了本文的理论命题。研究表明,我国政府应充分发挥互联网发展降低信息不确定性的微观机制,以推动外贸的平稳增长。     

论共同体观念的语词生成与理论建构

本文运用发生学的方法，揭示共同体观念的语词生成和共同体思想的理论建构。第一部分，作者指出，共同体这个语词在西方语言中源于共善和公共，具有丰富的内涵。第二部分，作者指出，共同体是古希腊罗马哲学和政治学的重要概念，在哲学形上学和伦理学的语境下，共同体与共善的关系密不可分;而在政治学的语境下，共同体是公共的名词化和实体化，共善则是建构人类社会的纲领和目标。把善提升为至善是一条哲学伦理学的理论建构通道，而把善提升为共善，则是哲学政治学的通道，与哲学伦理学的理论建构通道并行不悖。第三部分，作者指出，奥古斯丁批判地吸取了柏拉图和西塞罗的相关思想，然后以公义为纲，建构了他的理想共同体———上帝之城。奥古斯丁对共善的探究，直接导致对理想共同体的理论建构。他的理想共同体以信仰为核心，以伦理为共同体成员的守则，以秩序与和谐为共同体的特色，以普爱为共同体生存与发展的动力。     

都市独生子女特性分析

计划生育政策下的当今都市环境中生存的独生子女群体,其特性大异于前代人,压力源亦异于前人,所思所念以及心理困扰极具特点,进入青春期后特征尤为明显。抓住当今都市独生子女的本质特征,对未来青少年教育的方向及方式具有特殊意义和价值。     

Modifications of sequential designs in bioequivalence trials

Bioequivalence (BE) studies are designed to show that two formulations of one drug are equivalent and they play an important role in drug development. When in a design stage, it is possible that there is a high degree of uncertainty on variability of the formulations and the actual performance of the test versus reference formulation. Therefore, an interim look may be desirable to stop the study if there is no chance of claiming BE at the end (futility), or claim BE if evidence is sufficient (efficacy), or adjust the sample size. Sequential design approaches specially for BE studies have been proposed previously in publications. We applied modification to the existing methods focusing on simplified multiplicity adjustment and futility stopping. We name our method modified sequential design for BE studies (MSDBE). Simulation results demonstrate comparable performance between MSDBE and the original published methods while MSDBE offers more transparency and better applicability. The R package MSDBE is available at https://sites.google.com/site/modsdbe/ . Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

Premium of Endowment Insurance for Civil Servants will be Paid by Employers and Individuals

There is finally precise information about the reform in endowment insurance to abolish the"double-track system".On December 23,2014,Mr.Ma Kai,Vice Premier of the State Council,delivered a work report on behalf of the State Council at the 12th Session of the Standing Committee of the Twelfth National People’s Congress about the progress made in comprehensively advancing the establishment of urban     

美国、中国与朝鲜停战谈判中的战俘遣返问题

在1951年6月至1953年7月的朝鲜停战谈判中，战俘遣返问题是谈判双方争论最为激烈、耗时最长的议题。美国出于冷战需要，拒不同意遣返所有被俘朝中人员；而朝中方面则依据关于战俘遣返问题的日内瓦公约，要求遣返所有战俘。由于在此问题上僵持不下，致使谈判几次陷于停顿。最终，谈判双方各自做出一定让步，使得战俘遣返问题得以解决，为朝鲜停战协定的签订消除了最后也是最大的一个障碍。     

The disembedded digital economy: Social protection for new economy employment in China

This research focuses upon employment in the new economy, exploring labour protection and social protection in the digital age in China. Through an empirical survey conducted in three Chinese cities, social insurance and the labour rights of employees in the digital economic sector, such as gig employment, e-commerce, and various other forms of online employment, have been examined in-depth. This study reveals new regulatory loopholes in the digital labour market, which have substantially eroded the basis of social policy arrangements in China, “softening” participation in social insurance branches and compliance with labour regulations remarkably. Drawing upon the theoretical concepts of Polanyi on embeddedness and disembeddedness, we argue that the digital employment sector in China has been increasingly disembedded from social institutions and social control. The new configuration in the digital field of social policy requires novel conceptual models and institutional settings to cope with increasing social risks in virtual spaces.     

金石文献与《全宋诗》补正——以四川、江西、安徽等地金石文献为例

中国古代金石文献极其丰富,《石刻史料新编》三辑即著录了《四川金石志》三卷、《安徽金石略》十卷、《歙县金石志》十四卷等书。另外,今人还编有《巴中石窟内容总录》《天柱山山谷流泉石刻》等书。这些书籍包含了许多宋人诗歌,现利用这些文献辑得宋佚诗39首,补充作者26人,又校正了作者及补充字句题序若干。     

乡约的诸属性及其文化原理认识

乡约是传统社会乡民基于一定的地缘和血缘关系,为某种共同目的而设立的生活规则及组织。乡约最初形成于中国,后传播至朝鲜半岛、日本和越南,成为东亚社会共同的法律文化传统。传统中国的乡约有其时空性、价值性和法律性。乡约不是国法,但在乡民的实际生活中发挥着法的作用,是中国传统社会秩序构造链中的重要一环,其内贯一极二元主从式多样化的文化原理,与传统中国社会的结构和文化理念相契合。近代以来,乡约总体上呈现出消解的趋势,但至今仍有各种流变形式,认真对待,合理改造,必有益于中国类型法治社会的建立。