投资率门限特征、消费促进与经济增长：1995-2007

 目前,国际经济形势欠佳,出口市场严峻,拉动内需成为我国经济工作重点,投资与消费的关系再次受到学界关注。本文阐述了投资率和消费率协调统一的关系,并运用1995-2007年中国省区面板数据,根据投资率的门限特征进行非线性回归。分析结果表明,投资率主要存在两个门限值,第一个门限值位于44%,在该值以下,消费率的提高显著促进了经济增长;第二个门限值为36%左右,在该值以下,消费率的提高进一步拉动经济增长速度。然而,单纯依靠消费需求拉动将导致投资不足的“陷阱”,为此,本文提出了两项政策建议：挖掘可极大拉动第二产业增长的新消费点;在东部和中西部之间实现有所差异的战略布局。     

青岛一套表的实践与经验

 企业统计一套表一直是统计制度方法改革和实践中的焦点问题。本文通过对青岛市统计局企业一套表制度实施情况的案例分析,系统界定了企业一套表的概念和内涵,全面展现了企业一套表的运作过程,客观分析了制约企业一套表实施的主要原因,并提出了在现阶段实施企业统计一套表的条件和要求。     

A likelihood based estimator for vector autoregressive processes

A onestep estimator, which is an approximation to the unconditional maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the coefficient matrices of a Gaussian vector autoregressive process is presented. The onestep estimator is easy to compute and can be computed using standard software. Unlike the computation of the unconditional MLE, the computation of the onestep estimator does not require any iterative optimization and the computation is numerically stable. In finite samples the onestep estimator generally has smaller mean square error than the ordinary least squares estimator. In a simple model, where the unconditional MLE can be computed, numerical investigation shows that the onestep estimator is slightly worse than the unconditional MLE in terms of mean square error but superior to the ordinary least squares estimator. The limiting distribution of the onestep estimator for processes with some unit roots is derived.     

是逻辑,还是逻辑学——与程仲棠、王左立两位先生商榷

在考察"是"与逻辑的关系之前,首先应该明确"逻辑"与"逻辑学"这两个概念之间的联系与区别.本文认为,无论将逻辑等同于逻辑学,还是取消本体性质的逻辑,将之归结于逻辑学的规定,都是将这两个概念混为一谈,皆欠妥当.承认逻辑的本体地位是解决这方面问题的关键.     

诉讼程序运行中当事人与法院的作用分担论略——以协同进行主义为视角

在民事诉讼中,关于程序运行中当事人与法院的作用分担存在着"当事人进行主义"与"职权进行主义"的划分.针对传统分类的缺陷,加强法官与当事人之间的沟通与协作,已成为两大法系代表性国家调整法院与当事人作用分担的共同趋势.在我国,协同进行主义的引进有助于修正因过于弱化法院职权所引发的法院实体性诉讼指挥权的缺失,明确当事人在程序运行中的权能与责任.在制度建构层面,协同进行主义需通过强化法院的释明义务与当事人的诉讼促进义务,保障当事人的程序选择权得以实现.     

史诗与英雄:向正义回归的乡村叙事——从几部长篇小说看新农村题材写作的一种类型

目前,新农村题材的写作出现了新的类型,它不是要着力表现农村土地的破碎和人心的散落,而是要表达对这种恶化的救治和对未来的美好想象.它试图恢复和重建某些新质因素,并通过史诗性和英雄性的描写来实现对传统的回归和继承.     

试论巴赫金的“文本理论”

通过确认"文本"是语言学、语文学、文学学诸人文学科的第一性实体,是人文思维的直接现实,巴赫金有力地捍卫了人文科学的"科学性",他通过确认"话语文本"是一种有声的超语言的表述,是主体间的交锋互动的事件,有效地坚守着人文科学的"人文性".通过确认"文学文本"具有"双声语"品质,巴赫金精辟地阐明了文学创作的"对话性"与文学接受的"开放性".     

The Life Course,Cohort Dynamics,and International Differences in Aging Trajectories

In recent years, population health research has focused on understanding the determinants of later-life health. Two strands of that work have focused on (1) international comparisons of later-life health and (2) assessing the early-life origins of disease and disability and the importance of life course processes. However, the less frequently examined intersection of these approaches remains an important frontier. The present study contributes to the integration of these approaches. We use the Health and Retirement Study family of data sets and a cohort dynamic approach to compare functional health trajectories across 12 high-income countries and to examine the role of life course processes and cohort dynamics in contributing to variation in those trajectories. We find substantial international variation in functional health trajectories and an important role of cohort dynamics in generating that variation, with younger cohorts often less healthy at comparable ages than the older cohorts they are replacing. We further find evidence of heterogeneous effects of life course processes on health trajectories. The results have important implications for future trends in morbidity and mortality as well as public policy.     

Is Chinese National Health Insurance Effective in the Face of Severe Illness? A Perspective from Health Service Utilization and Economic Burden

Over the past decade, health insurance coverage has expanded dramatically in China. Health insurance benefits, however, remain shallow or ambiguous. This study examines the effect of Chinese national health insurance policy on health service utilization and economic burden in urban settings using the Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance Household Survey. We employ the Heckman selection model to correct for selection bias among hospital inpatients, and find that compared to individuals without health insurance, those with health insurance are more likely to be admitted to the hospital when their physicians recommended them to enter the hospital as inpatients. Health insurance is also associated with about 45.6 % decrease in out-of-pocket inpatient expenditures. Individuals with urban employee basic medical insurance see the largest decrease in economic burden, followed by individuals with urban resident basic medical Insurance, and those with new rural cooperative medical insurance.