乡镇企业经济结构调整研究

中央经济工作会议指出:要加大经济结构调整力度,提高经济发展质量和效益。乡镇企业作为我国经济的重要组成部分,必须调整经济结构,转变发展方式,为我国统筹城乡发展、推进城镇化进程与社会主义新农村建设提供经济和产业支撑。我国乡镇企业经济结构既存在着先天缺陷又有后天营养不良等问题,主要表现在产业结构规模小且弱质化,产业内部结构粗放且不合理,产业布局分散,与城市工业结构雷同化,以及在产业结构价值链中处于低端等等。要实现乡镇企业在新世纪的"涅般木",就必须转变乡镇企业发展方式,调整乡镇企业经济结构,走具有中国特色的农村新型工业化道路。     

Open Source Development with a Commercial Complementary Product or Service

We examine optimal control decisions regarding pricing, network size, and hiring strategy in the context of open source software development. Opening the source code to a software product often implies that consumers would not pay for the software product itself. However, revenues may be generated from complementary products. A software firm may be willing to open the source code to its software if it stands to build a network for its complementary products. The rapid network growth is doubly crucial in open source development, in which the users of the firm's products are also contributors of code that translates to future quality improvements. To determine whether or not to open the source, a software firm must jointly optimize prices for its various products while simultaneously managing its product quality, network size, and employment strategy. Whether or not potential gains in product quality, network size, and labor savings are sufficient to justify opening the source code depends on product and demand characteristics of both the software and the complementary product, as well as on the cost and productivity of in‐house developers relative to open source contributors. This paper investigates these crucial elements to allow firms to reach the optimal decision in choosing between the open and closed source models.     

元明时期中国与马八儿、琐里交通史新考

本文认为,元末汪大渊《岛夷志略》记载的马八儿屿指的是马八儿苏丹国.伯希和认为,西洋琐里国王别里提、琐里国王卜纳的是同一人,两国是同一国.本文认为,两国不是同一国,别里提、卜纳的都是马可波罗讲的马八儿王号Bandi的异译.永乐以后,南印度被维查耶那伽尔王朝统治,所以琐里不仅不见于正史,也不见于与郑和下西洋有关的史籍.前人提出,《元史》记载中的至元十八年马八儿王号“算弹”是苏丹的音译.本文认为应是sundara的音译.而延祐元年遣使的马八儿王昔剌木丁即Sayyid Jalal-ud-Din Ahsan.     

试析冷战后印度中亚政策的演变

从1991年中亚国家先后独立到现在,印度的中亚政策经历了三个发展阶段。从1991年至1998年,这一阶段印度中亚政策的主要任务是通过加强与新独立的中亚国家之间的接触,为印度与中亚关系的发展打下基础。从1998年至2001年,随着国际形势与印度自身发展的需要,中亚国家成为印度加快自身经济发展和打击极端主义与恐怖主义的重要合作伙伴。2001年至今,印度加大了对中亚地区的关注与投入,致力于加强与中亚国家在政治、经济、安全与文化诸领域的合作,印度在中亚的影响也随之增强。虽然印度与中亚国家关系的发展仍受到一些制约,但印度介入中亚事务越来越明确的态势值得关注。     

基于项目的JSP实训课程学习质量评价探索与实践

阐述了JSP实训课程"任务驱动、项目导向"的教学模式改革,构建了与之对应的以"教师、学生、企业"为评价主体、多种评价方式相结合的"三方"式学生学习质量评价模式,通过实例说明了如何运用这种模式来评价学生学习质量,总结了"三方"式评价模式的意义和作用,指出了课题进一步研究的方向。     

Robust importance sampling for some typical types of utility-based shortfall risk measures using exponential twisting and kernel density techniques

A robust algorithm for utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) measures is developed by combining the kernel density estimation with importance sampling (IS) using exponential twisting techniques. The optimal bandwidth of the kernel density is obtained by minimizing the mean square error of the estimators. Variance is reduced by IS where exponential twisting is applied to determine the optimal IS distribution. Conditions for the best distribution parameters are derived based on the piecewise polynomial loss function and the exponential loss function. The proposed method not only solves the problem of sampling from the kernel density but also reduces the variance of the UBSR estimator.     

Bayesian misclassification and propensity score methods for clustered observational studies

Bayesian propensity score regression analysis with misclassified binary responses is proposed to analyse clustered observational data. This approach utilizes multilevel models and corrects for misclassification in the responses. Using the deviance information criterion (DIC), the performance of the approach is compared with approaches without correcting for misclassification, multilevel structure specification, or both in the study of the impact of female employment on the likelihood of physical violence. The smallest DIC confirms that our proposed model best fits the data. We conclude that female employment has an insignificant impact on the likelihood of physical spousal violence towards women. In addition, a simulation study confirms that the proposed approach performed best in terms of bias and coverage rate. Ignoring misclassification in response or multilevel structure of data would yield biased estimation of the exposure effect.     

Allocation strategies of standby redundancies in series/parallel system

This article deals with the topic of optimal allocation of two standby redundancies in a two-component series/parallel system. There are two original components C₁ and C₂ which can be used to construct a series/parallel system, and two spares R₁ (same as C₁) and R₂ (different from both C₁ and C₂) at hand with them being standby redundancies so as to enhance the reliability level of the system. The goal for an engineer is to seek after the optimal allocation policy in this framework. It is shown that, for the series structure, the engineer should allocate R₂ to C₁ and R₁ to C₂ provided that C₁ (or R₁) performs either the best or worst among all the units; otherwise, the allocation policy should be reversed. For the parallel structure, the optimal allocation strategy is just opposed to that of series case. We also provide some numerical examples for illustrating the theoretical results.     

Three strings of inequalities among six Bayes estimators

We discover three interesting strings of inequalities among six Bayes estimators, where for the parameter space (0, 1), (0, ∞), and ( ? ∞, ∞), each case has a string of inequalities. The three strings of inequalities only depend on the loss functions, and the inequalities are independent of the chosen models and the used priors provided the Bayes estimators exist. Therefore, they exist in a general setting which makes them quite interesting. Finally, the numerical simulations exemplify the two strings of inequalities defined on (0, 1) and (0, ∞), and that there does not exist a string of inequalities among the six smallest posterior expected losses.