混合研究方法的方法论、研究策略及应用——以消费模式研究为例

近年来,定量定性相结合的研究方法在社会科学中广泛应用,但鲜有研究注意到其方法论含义并科学地选取研究策略。事实上,学术界对于定量定性方法的结合仍有争议,而且不同的结合方法背后的本体论和认识论的含义也不同,对于研究结论的意义和作用也不同。本文以中产阶级消费模式的研究为例,详细阐述了该研究使用混合研究方法的原因、目的、方法论、具体研究策略及其应用。文章使用定量和定性的研究发现说明了混合研究方法如何丰富和深化了研究结论,如何以具有代表性的样本为背景挖掘了消费生活的复杂性和多面性。     

Optimal financing and dividend policy with Markovian switching regimes

This work investigates an optimal financing and dividend problem for an insurer whose surplus process is modulated by an observable continuous-time and finite-state Markov chain. We assume that the insurer should never go bankrupt by issuing new equity. The goal of the insurer is to maximize the expected present value of the dividends payout minus the discounted cost of equity issuance. We obtain the optimal policies and explicit expressions for the value functions when the risk reserve process is modeled by both upward jump model and its diffusion approximation. Numerical illustrations of the sensitivities of the model parameters are provided.     

Generalized information matrix tests for copulas

We propose a family of goodness-of-fit tests for copulas. The tests use generalizations of the information matrix (IM) equality of White and so relate to the copula test proposed by Huang and Prokhorov. The idea is that eigenspectrum-based statements of the IM equality reduce the degrees of freedom of the test’s asymptotic distribution and lead to better size-power properties, even in high dimensions. The gains are especially pronounced for vine copulas, where additional benefits come from simplifications of score functions and the Hessian. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the generalized tests, accounting for the nonparametric estimation of the marginals and apply a parametric bootstrap procedure, valid when asymptotic critical values are inaccurate. In Monte Carlo simulations, we study the behavior of the new tests, compare them with several Cramer–von Mises type tests and confirm the desired properties of the new tests in high dimensions.     

感性消费时代的广告受众心理分析

通过对广告受众心理进行分析,总结出新形势下广告受众心理的主要特点。具体受众心理分析是：一、感性心理：情趣情调;自我比拟;理想向往;流行时尚;交流互动;品牌偏好。二、理性——感性心理：实用价值观念变异;自我价值中的理性与感性;体现个性。     

粤港澳大湾区西部核心产业创新空间提升规划思考 ——以顺德为例

在粤港澳大湾区一体化发展背景下,顺德以土地换产值的传统增长模式难以为继,制造业面临巨大的下行压力,根本原因是城市创新空间系统性、产学研协同创新转化、优质服务的创新空间不能匹配顺德日益增长的发展需求.本文结合产业创新空间相关基础研究,从内外部创新空间格局视角,重点梳理顺德产业创新空间方面的规划探索.从区域创新合作、多元创新协同、提升空间供给等方面总结既有经验并提出新的思考.     

A new algorithm to estimate monotone nonparametric link functions and a comparison with parametric approach

The generalized linear model (GLM) is a class of regression models where the means of the response variables and the linear predictors are joined through a link function. Standard GLM assumes the link function is fixed, and one can form more flexible GLM by either estimating the flexible link function from a parametric family of link functions or estimating it nonparametically. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that uses P-spline for nonparametrically estimating the link function which is guaranteed to be monotone. It is equivalent to fit the generalized single index model with monotonicity constraint. We also conduct extensive simulation studies to compare our nonparametric approach for estimating link function with various parametric approaches, including traditional logit, probit and robit link functions, and two recently developed link functions, the generalized extreme value link and the symmetric power logit link. The simulation study shows that the link function estimated nonparametrically by our proposed algorithm performs well under a wide range of different true link functions and outperforms parametric approaches when they are misspecified. A real data example is used to illustrate the results.     

新时代天津绿色发展实践与思考

党的十八大以来,天津在中央新发展理念和“五位一体”总体布局战略指引下,结合自身情况积极探索以绿色路径推动经济加快迈向高质量发展,绿色发展方式、绿色经济结构和经济增长的绿色动力正在加快形成。同时,天津面临环境治理投资相对不足、工业结构偏重尚未得到根本性转变以及部分区生态环境质量改善压力依然较大等问题和挑战。为进一步推动天津形成绿色发展的强劲动力和长效机制,短期可以考虑适当加大环境治理投入力度;中长期主要是利用新技术加快发展绿色生态型新产业,推动环境治理能力现代化,以及形成完善的支撑绿色发展的政策体系和长效机制。     

基于最近邻分析的空气质量时空数据异常点识别

空气质量数据具有在时间上连续、空间上相关的特点,这提高了异常点识别的难度.本文提出在时间维度上运用移动平均法,在空间维度上运用反距离加权法对观测值进行预测并求残差的解决思路,从而将时空数据的异常点识别问题转化为二维残差值的异常点检测问题.通过仿真验证表明新方法具有良好的检出力.最后将新方法应用于北京市实际观测数据,取得了满意的识别效果.     

网络文学版权保护探析

侵犯网络文学著作权尤其是信息网络传播权的现象在当下十分严重。侵权的模式包括"云霄阁模式"和"百度模式"。它的背后既体现了社会公众、网络服务提供者和版权人之间的利益平衡,也是互联网精神、权利意识和商业模式三者博弈的结果。解决侵犯网络文学版权的问题需要注重培育公众正确的互联网意识、完善法律制度建设、创新文学网站的盈利模式及大力发挥社会组织的作用。保护网络文学著作权对创新虚拟社会管理有重要意义。