校园文化对高校德育实效的促进作用及其实现措施研究

本文从研究校园文化与德育的关系入手,重点分析了校园文化的教化、导向和辐射作用对德育实效的促进,结合当前高校校园文化对德育的影响,提出应采取多方面措施推动校园文化建设,提高高校德育实效。     

信任:心理、社会与文化的三重视角

信任包含了从心理、社会到文化的多重含义.作为个体心理事件的信任.包含了动机和态度成分,是个体本体安全感的基础;信任作为一种重要的社会机制,简化了复杂的社会认知,具有维持社会互动与社会秩序的重要功能;作为社会资本的信任,同时也是一种文化现象.伴随风险社会的来临,信任从概念到功能及其发生机制都遭遇了全面挑战:信任是一种传统规范还是现代观念?信任的发生是习俗与文化使然.还是理性计算,再或就是一种冒险?何谓信任?信任何以成为可能?我们能够信任"信任"吗?信任危机就是一种现代性的危机,是人类在风险社会来临后的不知所措.这既是社会科学领域所要回答的理论问题,更是人类社会当下难以求解的生存困境.     

柔性制造系统在《可编程控制器》实验教学中的应用

<可编程控制器>课程是电气及其自动化专业一门实用性很强的专业主干课,为了培养满足社会对高素质创新性人才的需求,必须加强实验教学的作用.本文主要根据我校电气及其自动化专业的现状,通过应用柔性制造系统着重培养了学生实践动手能力和创新精神,实现了理论与工程实际相结合.     

国家意识形态语境下的高校思想政治教育

思想政治教育的实质是国家意识形态输出,但这种输出活动面临着国家意识形态和社会生活现象。以及个体经验世界两极化的困难,问题在于国家意识形态疏离了社会生活世界,解决这一问题的办法就在于将国家意识形态社会生活化。本文从历史分析的角度。阐述了思想政治教育的社会生活化演进趋势,并以高等学校思想政治教育为例,分析了当前作为国家意识形态的社会主义核心价值体系在高校这一特定社会生活世界存在的问题．揭示了其中的影响要素,并提出了国家意识形态社会生活化的“五进”路径。     

中国城乡居民年龄别消费模式量化与分析

文章采用2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据量化分析年龄别居民消费模式。针对同类研究只采用年龄变量作为自变量的不足,在经典的需求和消费函数基础上扩展年龄变量构建计量模型,获得了更好的解释力和准确性。基于计量分析结果刻画了分年龄、性别的中国城乡居民消费模式,并进行城乡比较。研究发现,居民家庭消费生命周期中存在30~34岁及45~49岁两个消费高峰;城乡居民消费差距最大的是高龄老人;农村老人在高龄阶段的医疗保健消费明显下降;农村中年妇女的医疗保健支出低于男性。研究认为,应从政策层面有针对性地加大对特定年龄性别人群的扶助力度;同时,未来产业规划应充分考虑人口结构变动因素的影响。     

Quantitative Analysis on the Impact of Urbanisation on Chinese Population Aging

This paper systematically studies the impact of fertility, mortality, initial age structure and rural-urban migration on population aging in rural and urban China from 2000 to 2010. The results show that urbanisation plays a crucial role in population aging in both rural and urban areas and its inf luence is closely linked to the age pattern of the migrants. One third of young rural population transformed into urban population during that period. The contribution of rural-urban migration to population aging in rural areas is 43.4 percent, which is higher than any inf luences from population’s natural changes, and is dominant in population aging in the countryside. Rural-urban migration contributes-118.0 percent to population aging in urban areas by reducing the proportion of aged population and its influence was only lower than that of the initial age structure. The impact of urbanisation on population aging in towns is relatively limited. Among factors from population’s natural changes, the inf luence of the initial age structure is higher than those from changes of mortality and fertility. The paper discusses the causes and developmental trends of impact of urbanisation on population aging between rural and urban areas, and addresses some policy recommendations to deal with socio-economic challenges.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

An adaptive-to-model test for partially parametric single-index models

Residual marked empirical process-based tests are commonly used in regression models. However, they suffer from data sparseness in high-dimensional space when there are many covariates. This paper has three purposes. First, we suggest a partial dimension reduction adaptive-to-model testing procedure that can be omnibus against general global alternative models although it fully use the dimension reduction structure under the null hypothesis. This feature is because that the procedure can automatically adapt to the null and alternative models, and thus greatly overcomes the dimensionality problem. Second, to achieve the above goal, we propose a ridge-type eigenvalue ratio estimate to automatically determine the number of linear combinations of the covariates under the null and alternative hypotheses. Third, a Monte-Carlo approximation to the sampling null distribution is suggested. Unlike existing bootstrap approximation methods, this gives an approximation as close to the sampling null distribution as possible by fully utilising the dimension reduction model structure under the null model. Simulation studies and real data analysis are then conducted to illustrate the performance of the new test and compare it with existing tests.     

我国异质性产业体系低碳化发展的实现路径及其影响因素

本文建立了一个异质性产业体系低碳化发展路径选择的分析框架,通过超越对数形式的随机前沿生产函数,测算了我国29个省区产业体系生产技术及其效率和生产规模效率,以及能源使用技术及其效率和碳减排技术及其效率,并针对不同类型产业体系的低碳化发展提出政策建议.结果表明,我国异质性产业体系可以通过不同的结构升级和技术进步的选择形成适合于自身产业体系特征的低碳化发展路径.     

模糊变权组合预测方法研究

在不确定环境组合预测中,用模糊权重系数更能体现各单项预测方法的客观表现.文章提出一种新的权重系数为三角模糊数的组合预测方法.首先建立以组合预测精确度指数最小为准则的模糊加权组合预测模型,为了避免样本数据中极端值对模型的影响,对模型进行改进,提出带有0-1变量的模糊加权组合预测模型.进一步考虑到单项预测方法在不同时刻的表现有所差异,建立基于诱导有序模糊加权平均(IOFWA)算子的模糊变权组合预测模型,该模型不仅能克服极端值的影响,而且具有更高的预测精确度.并实证验证了该方法的适用性和灵活性.