Discussion on On the role of data,statistics and decisions in a pandemic

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - The authors make an important contribution presenting a comprehensive and thoughtful overview about the many different aspects of data, statistics and data...     

略论苏俄在中共创建中的作用

1921年中国共产党的建立与苏俄的大力支持和帮助是分不开的。在中国共产党的建立过程中,以列宁为首的布尔什维克党对中国共产党的建立主要提供了组织指导、物质保障支持等方面的帮助。在苏俄的大力支持与帮助下,中国共产党很快成了组织和领导中国革命的一支中坚力量。     

大赋的式微与小赋的崛起

东汉中叶,歌功颂德的大赋创作衰歇,而距政教较远的小赋创作日渐繁荣。小赋题材进一步扩大,世俗情感开始进入小赋中,其对事物描写的侧重点已由教化功能向自身特性转换。     

The Diversification Theorem Restated: Risk-pooling Without Assignment of Probabilities

Bayesian decision theory assumes that agents making choices assign subjective probabilities to outcomes, even in cases where information on probabilities is obviously absent. Here we show that agents that presume that they are equal risks can share risks mutually beneficially, even if the probabilities of losses are unpredictable or genuinely uncertain. We show also that different risk aversions among pool members do not exclude mutually beneficial loss sharing at uncertainty. Sharing when individuals’ losses differ in probabilities or in amount may still make individuals better off. Our findings are related to the theory of the insurance firm, to the management of development risks, and to the theory of justice.JEL Classification: D8, G22, L10, L30     

A Spatial Approach to Environmental Risk Assessment of PAH Contamination

The extent of remediation of contaminated industrial sites depends on spatial heterogeneity of contaminant concentration and spatially explicit risk characterization. We used sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) and indicator kriging (IK) to describe the spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), pH, electric conductivity, particle aggregate distribution, water holding capacity, and total organic carbon, and quantitative relations among them, in a creosote polluted soil in southern Sweden. The geostatistical analyses were combined with risk analyses, in which the total toxic equivalent concentration of the PAH mixture was calculated from the soil concentrations of individual PAHs and compared with ecotoxicological effect concentrations and regulatory threshold values in block sizes of 1.8 × 1.8 m. Most PAHs were spatially autocorrelated and appeared in several hot spots. The risk calculated by SGS was more confined to specific hot spot areas than the risk calculated by IK, and 40–50% of the site had PAH concentrations exceeding the threshold values with a probability of 80% and higher. The toxic equivalent concentration of the PAH mixture was dependent on the spatial distribution of organic carbon, showing the importance of assessing risk by a combination of measurements of PAH and organic carbon concentrations. Essentially, the same risk distribution pattern was maintained when Monte Carlo simulations were used for implementation of risk in larger (5 × 5 m), economically more feasible remediation blocks, but a smaller area became of great concern for remediation when the simulations included PAH partitioning to two separate sources, creosote and natural, of organic matter, rather than one general.     

Social services provided for physically abused children in Sweden: background factors and interventions

This study aims at describing and analysing what kinds of social services are provided for physically abused children in Sweden. The social services files were examined for 113 children under 15 years of age (67 boys and 46 girls) who had been reported to the police as having been physically abused by a parent or equivalent caretaker in a particular police district. The children's social services files indicated an increased risk of a parental abusive behaviour prior to the abuse incident. There had been former interventions in 81 per cent of the families and previous reports on neglect or abuse in 44 per cent of the 113 families. After the abuse incident, investiga-tions were opened in 80 per cent of the cases. The three most common interventions were placement in foster care, referrals to Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Service and Social Services support contacts. The study shows that there was a tendency towards more proactive work with injured children, children of immigrant parents and children of mentally ill parents.     

思辩理性与自组织实践理性论析

自然历史现实是工具活动与历史活动的耦合。资本主义的思辩理性以主体性工具活动与文化性历史活动相对立的线性实践观为基础。现代信息化实践的发展 ,要求超越资本主义的思辩理性 ,确立从人与物、人与人、人与自身实践互动中把握人的本质活动的自组织实践理性     

Prevalence of Child Sexual Abuse in the Nordic Countries: A Literature Review

This review examined child sexual abuse in the Nordic countries focusing on prevalence rates and victims’ age and relationship to the perpetrator. The results show a prevalence of child sexual abuse (broadly defined) between 3–23% for boys and 11–36% for girls. The prevalence rates for contact abuse were 1–12% for boys and 6–30% for girls, while 0.3–6.8% of the boys and 1.1–13.5% of the girls reported penetrating abuse. The findings suggest an increased risk of abuse from early adolescence. In adolescence, peers may constitute the largest group of perpetrators. The results highlight the need for preventive efforts also targeting peer abuse. Future research should include cross-national and repeated studies using comparable methodology.     

Having a soul or choosing a face? Nation branding,identity and cosmopolitan imagination

If nation branding is about constructing and promoting national identity, what kind of ‘identity’ could it possibly be? This article analyses how the branded nation qualitatively differs from earlier forms of imagined communities by focusing on the tension between inward- and outward-directed dimensions of nation branding. A particular focus is placed on the concept of ‘identity’, which, it is argued, is insufficiently problematized in previous research. The discussion takes its departure in a case study of Ukraine, where all nation branding attempts came to an abrupt halt when political unrest broke out in late 2013. The political unrest led to a rapid shift in forms of concern over Ukraine, since nation branding can only be conducted in times of relative social harmony. The case further illustrates the argument that collective identity is not a main issue when branding a nation, and it is argued that a perspective of cosmopolitanism can bring new insights to the phenomenon.