Condom Use Trajectories in Adolescence and the Transition to Adulthood: The Role of Mother and Father Support

Few studies have investigated how mother and father support differ on predicting youths' sexual risk behavior. We therefore examined the influence of parental support on condom use trajectories and its correlates in a predominantly African American sample [(N=627; 53% female; M = 14.86 years (SD=. 64)] from adolescence to young adulthood. We used hierarchical growth curve modeling to examine the relationship between condom use, substance use, psychological distress and parental support prospectively. We found that consistent condom use decreased over time and was associated negatively with psychological distress and substance use. Furthermore, both maternal and paternal support were associated with more condom use over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for HIV prevention programs.     

An Empirical Test of the Relative Validity of Expert and Lay Judgments of Risk

This article investigates how accurately experts (underwriters) and lay persons (university students) judge the risks posed by life-threatening events Only one prior study (Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein, 1985) has previously investigated the veracity of expert versus lay judgments of the magnitude of risk. In that study, a heterogeneous grouping of 15 experts was found to judge, using marginal estimations, a variety of risks as closer to the true annual frequencies of death than convenience samples of the lay population. In this study, we use a larger, homogenous sample of experts performing an ecologically valid task. We also ask our respondents to assess frequencies and relative frequencies directly, rather than ask for a "risk" estimate--a response mode subject to possible qualitative attributions-as was done in the Slovic et al. study. Although we find that the experts outperformed lay persons on a number of measures, the differences are small, and both groups showed similar global biases in terms of: (1) overestimating the likelihood of dying from a condition (marginal probability) and of dying from a condition given that it happens to you (conditional probability), and (2) underestimating the ratios of marginal and conditional likelihoods between pairs of potentially lethal events. In spite of these scaling problems, both groups showed quite good performance in ordering the lethal events in terms of marginal and conditional likelihoods. We discuss the nature of expertise using a framework developed by Bolger and Wright (1994), and consider whether the commonsense assumption of the superiority of expert risk assessors in making magnitude judgments of risk is, in fact, sensible.     

The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?

Good policy making should be based on available scientific knowledge. Sometimes this knowledge is well established through research, but often scientists must simply express their judgment, and this is particularly so in risk scenarios that are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Usually in such cases, the opinions of several experts will be sought in order to pool knowledge and reduce error, raising the question of whether individual expert judgments should be given different weights. We argue—against the commonly advocated “classical method”—that no significant benefits are likely to accrue from unequal weighting in mathematical aggregation. Our argument hinges on the difficulty of constructing reliable and valid measures of substantive expertise upon which to base weights. Practical problems associated with attempts to evaluate experts are also addressed. While our discussion focuses on one specific weighting scheme that is currently gaining in popularity for expert knowledge elicitation, our general thesis applies to externally imposed unequal weighting schemes more generally.     

Social Impact Measurement and Non-profit Organisations: Compliance,Resistance, and Promotion

Non-profit organisations are under increasing pressure to demonstrate their social impact. This paper examines the experience and behaviour of non-profit organisations in the UK in relation to a demand for social impact evaluations. External resource providers request organisations to present evidence on how resources are used and what organisations have achieved. While most organisations are willing to comply and accept this control, they can also resist through using their discretion in deciding what to measure, how to measure and what to report. Non-profit organisations can proactively and voluntarily use social impact measurement for learning and promotional purposes, and as a way of exerting control over their environment. The analysis develops the concept of strategic decoupling to explain the differences observed between what organisations are asked to do, what they plan to do and what they are doing in practice.     

Nonverbal behavior correlated with the shaped verbal behavior of children

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - Children under 6 years old pressed on response windows behind which stimuli appeared (star or tree). Presses occasionally lit lamps arranged in a column; a present...     

Developing effectiveness: Frontline perspectives

The pursuit of 'effectiveness' is a predominant theme in contemporary probation and, increasingly, in all forms of social work. Even if it were accepted that empirical research studies have identified some principles of effective programmes, there would still be room for differing organisational and educational approaches to fostering effectiveness. This article explores the contributions and limitations of different forms of managerialism to this purpose, as well as the potential contribution that a renewed professionalism might offer. In addition, the author reports some of the findings of an in-depth qualitative research study which explored frontline workers' perspectives on the definition and delivery as well as the development of effective probation. Focussing mainly on findings concerning workers' views about factors which might have been expected to influence the development of their effectiveness, the author notes that workers had mixed views about the contributions of education, training and supervision, and stressed the significance of local peer influences. They also reported a disjunction between education and research on the one hand, and practice on the other. It is argued that, although this disjunction is consistent with managerialism in some senses, it will undermine efforts to develop effectiveness. Therefore in the concluding discussion, the author explores the roles that academics as researchers and educators might usefully play in fostering effectiveness.     

能源帝国:化石燃料与1580年以来的地缘政治

化石燃料对大国的兴衰和国际地缘政治的变化发挥着重要作用.本文通过对泥炭与荷兰、煤炭和英国以及石油和美国三个案例的分析,从横向上展示了能源与经济和军事发展以及领土扩张的复杂关系,从纵向上揭示了能源与霸权更替的关系.这为我们理解世界近现代历史的发展提供了一个新的视角.对分析中国在近代初期的落伍和现在的崛起都具有重要的启示意义.     

Social Enterprises as Hybrid Organizations: A Review and Research Agenda

The impacts of the global economic crisis of 2008, the intractable problems of persistent poverty and environmental change have focused attention on organizations that combine enterprise with an embedded social purpose. Scholarly interest in social enterprise (SE) has progressed beyond the early focus on definitions and context to investigate their management and performance. From a review of the SE literature, the authors identify hybridity, the pursuit of the dual mission of financial sustainability and social purpose, as the defining characteristic of SEs. They assess the impact of hybridity on the management of the SE mission, financial resource acquisition and human resource mobilization, and present a framework for understanding the tensions and trade‐offs resulting from hybridity. By examining the influence of dual mission and conflicting institutional logics on SE management the authors suggest future research directions for theory development for SE and hybrid organizations more generally.