An exponentially weighted quantile regression via SVM with application to estimating multiperiod VaR

The square root of time rule under RiskMetrics has been used as an important tool to estimate multiperiod value at risk (VaR). However, the conditions for the rule are too restrictive to get empirical support in practice since multiperiod VaR is a complex nonlinear function of the holding period and the one-step ahead volatility forecast. In this paper, we propose a new model by considering an exponentially weighted quantile regression via SVM to provide greater accuracy for multiperiod VaR measure. In both numerical simulations and empirical studies on three stock indices, the proposed model outperforms several traditional methods including the volatility models, filtered historical simulation, and linear quantile regression approaches in terms of the value of the number of significant entries, the mean absolute error, and the p value of prediction test in Harvey et al. (Int J Forecast 13:281–291, 1997).     

Outlier detection and accommodation in general spatial models

This paper studies outlier detection and accommodation in general spatial models including spatial autoregressive models and spatial error model as special cases. Using mean-shift and variance-weight models respectively, test statistics for multiple outliers are derived and the detecting procedures are proposed. In addition, several key diagnostic measures such as standardized residuals and leverage measure are defined in general spatial models. Outlier modified models are proposed to accommodate outliers in the data set. The performance of test statistics, including size and power, are examined via simulation studies. Three real examples are analyzed and the results show that the proposed methodology is useful for identifying and accommodating outliers in general spatial models.     

Spatial–temporal modellization of the $$\hbox {NO}_{2}$$ concentration data through geostatistical tools

The nitrogen dioxide is a primary pollutant, regarded for the estimation of the air quality index, whose excessive presence may cause significant environmental and health problems. In the current work, we suggest characterizing the evolution of \(\hbox {NO}_{2}\) levels, by using geostatistical approaches that deal with both the space and time coordinates. To develop our proposal, a first exploratory analysis was carried out on daily values of the target variable, daily measured in Portugal from 2004 to 2012, which led to identify three influential covariates (type of site, environment and month of measurement). In a second step, appropriate geostatistical tools were applied to model the trend and the space–time variability, thus enabling us to use the kriging techniques for prediction, without requiring data from a dense monitoring network. This methodology has valuable applications, as it can provide accurate assessment of the nitrogen dioxide concentrations at sites where either data have been lost or there is no monitoring station nearby.     

浅析竞争中的时间要素

21世纪,知识经济、信息化和全球化的发展使竞争态势更加激烈,时间因素在企业运营中作用日彰,成为信息社会中竞争优势的重要来源。传统企业大多忽视价值交付系统的时间消耗和系统全面反应能力,而现代企业以信息技术为基础,通过组织再造和流程重组,建立起快速反应能力,基于时间建立起强大的竞争优势。     

Do fundraisers select charitable donors based on gender and race? Evidence from survey data

Recent studies document that people are much more likely to donate to charity and volunteer their time when they are asked to. Using household surveys of giving and volunteering in the United States conducted from 1992 to 2001, which contain questions on whether the respondent was personally asked to give or volunteer, this paper investigates the factors associated with the probability of receiving a charitable solicitation and presents substantial evidence that race and gender differences play key roles in the selection of potential donors. In particular, males, blacks, and Hispanics are less likely to be solicited compared with females and whites. Using non-linear decomposition techniques, I find that differences in observable characteristics of individuals explain most of the racial gap in the probability of being solicited for charitable causes, but they fail to explain the gender gap in the probability of being asked to volunteer. Furthermore, these results are robust to alternative specifications. I also discuss related policy implications and argue that the economic impact of selecting potential donors based on gender and race can be considerable.     

The Washington consensus meets the global backlash: shifting debates and policies

During the final two decades of the twentieth century, development theory and practice were dominated by a neoliberal ‘Washington Consensus’. This article analyzes the shifting debate over that Consensus. The article focuses on the current ‘elite’ debate about the Consensus in an attempt to gauge the extent of change. It does so by coding primary research materials according to specific Consensus tenets to analyze (1) the individual and collective positions of several prominent, elite actors termed the ‘break-aways’; and (2) the editorial positions of leading publications that serve as key, elite ‘voices’. Washington Consensus tenets are broken into five categories: trade liberalization, deregulation, privatization, financial liberalization and debt-crisis management. This analysis of primary texts leads to the Conclusion that the ‘Washington Consensus’ no longer prevails as an elite northern Consensus, and we are presently not only in a period of debate, but in the midst of a paradigm shift.     

Promoting human rights in the era of globalization and interventions: the changing spaces of struggle

A new cartography of geopolitical and corporate interests is reshaping the international order after September 11, calling into question the state's ability to secure fundamental rights for its citizens and to preserve participatory democracy. If civil society tends, among human rights activists, to be the preferred venue to articulate human rights concerns against the state and other powerful entities, one may wonder whether civil society has not become an arena dominated by consumerism or the pursuit of security. With the weakening of social forces for human rights in civil society as a buffer between the state and the private realm, how can we protect individuals from deepening incursions by the state and the globalized market in our age of war against terror? This article considers these issues, by placing them in historic context. More specifically, it examines how selected events since the Second World War have transformed the spaces which support and shape campaigns for human rights struggle.     

Globalization and difference: displacement,culture and homeland

Mechanisms particular to globalization and to the invention of contemporary socio-cultural dynamics are revealed through the analysis of the validation of displacement emphasized in socio-anthropological texts and in the media. Globalization occasionally activates the myth of homogeneity in social groups, yet it cannot ultimately control or even slow down intercultural exchanges.     

Praxis des organisationsinternen Coachings

The article describes five different types of internal coaching programs. Specific attention is paid to the underlying concepts as well as to risks and chances regarding the impact on organizational development. The typical differentiating criteria of the different models and aspects for analysis and design of an internal coaching program are summarized at the end.     

?Kollegiales Coaching‘ in der Führungskr?fteentwicklung des Landesdienstes

Despite the fact that coaching is since long time established as an instrument of human resources development for senior management development, especially in business and politics, there are still needs for clarification and support at the management level in the federal public services like the administration, justice and police. Target group of a scientifically monitored pilot project initiated by the formerLower Saxons University of applied Sciences for Administration and Judicature has been the middle management levels of administration, justice and police. In the following article the model of ??Cooperative Coaching?? is being introduced as well as selected project results. Moreover its compatibility with different company cultures will be discussed. The organization immanent aspects played a role as well as the Person-Centered approach, those can be influenced by applying adequate methods and dynamics.