Discussion of ‘An analysis of global warming in the Alpine region based on nonlinear nonstationary time series models’ by Battaglia and Protopapas

This discussion focuses on threshold nonstationary?Cnonlinear time series modelling; it raises various issues to do with identifiability and model complexity. It also gives some background history concerning smooth threshold/transition autoregressive models and hidden Markov switching models.     

The importance of moral reflection and self-reported data in a dictator game with production

This article studies how individual behavior is affected by moral reflection in a dictator game with production. We make individuals reflect on fairness, in a structured way, before they play the dictator game. Our results suggest that moral reflection not only increases the weight people attach to fairness in distributive choices, but also has a strong effect on what people consider fair. Furthermore, we study the informational value of self-reported data. We find that self-reported data have substantial informational value, but do not add explanatory power to a random utility model estimated on purely behavioral data. Finally, we study whether there is a self-serving bias in the participants’ fairness perceptions, but do not find much evidence of this phenomenon in the data.     

Globalization,the Celtic Tiger and social outcomes: is Ireland a model or a mirage?

Ireland's Celtic Tiger economic boom has merited a great deal of attention as a successful model for small and peripheral states in this era of globalization. This article offers an alternative reading through examining social outcomes and interrogating the Irish model in the light of them. It seeks to answer the question whether Ireland offers a model to be followed or whether what appears to be a model is, on closer inspection, a mirage. The article begins by outlining the nature of the Celtic Tiger and surveying the mainstream interpretation of how Ireland's success shows it to be a model of what can be achieved through capturing the benefits of globalization. It then identifies the nature of the Irish model, examining the role of ‘social partnership’ and outlining the argument that Ireland is a ‘flexible developmental state’. Having described the principal features of Ireland's economic success and the means used to achieve it, as seen by mainstream scholars, the article then examines in some detail the distributional outcomes of the Celtic Tiger. Questions these raise for the positive reading of the Irish model open a more critical examination of the features of the model linked to the social outcomes described. This leads to a discussion that seeks to more adequately characterize the nature of ‘social partnership’ and of the Irish state, utilizing the concept of the competition state. The article concludes that, on closer examination, the Irish model turns out not to be a model of successful development, but a model of capital accumulation. To this extent it is a mirage and a warning about the social costs of economic success in the era of neoliberal globalization.     

A Nordhaus-Gaddum-type result for the induced path number

The induced path number ??(G) of a graph G is defined as the minimum number of subsets into which the vertex set of G can be partitioned so that each subset induces a graph. A Nordhaus-Gaddum-type result is a (tight) lower or upper bound on the sum (or product) of a parameter of a graph and its complement. If G is a subgraph of H, then the graph H?E(G) is the complement of G relative to H. In this paper, we consider Nordhaus-Gaddum-type results for the parameter ?? when the relative complement is taken with respect to the complete bipartite graph K _n,n .     

论人类—自然系统发展价值观的确立

人类—自然系统是内含着人、社会、自然的总体性系统，社会发展价值观的当代转换就是从人类中心向这一总体性系统的转换。传统的即工业文明的价值取向具有诸多缺陷，是造成当代发展危机的根本原因。扬弃传统的价值取向，建立新的人类—自然系统发展价值观，是实现社会良性发展的必要前提。本文系统地提出了建立新的发展价值观的思想框架。     

也谈许敬宗篡改唐代实录、国史问题

许敬宗是唐太宗、高宗时期的著名宰相和史官,曾经领导和参与了唐朝国史、实录等多种史书的修撰.对其修史,前人一向评价不高,认为虚美隐恶、曲事删改,违背了史学家直书实录的职业道德,但近来也有学者提出质疑,企图为许敬宗洗刷、开脱.本文则认为,无论从唐朝实录、国史修撰史和许敬宗个人品质来看,抑或从史料证据来看,许敬宗之篡改唐代实录、国史都很难否定.许敬宗篡改实录、国史之所以特别引人注目,与唐朝的政治现实、尤其与唐高宗关系至密.     

戏剧主题论

戏剧主题可看作由“中心思想”、“母题”和“题材主体”这三个层次所构成的结构性概念。若按顺序观察，该三个子概念之间显现出越来越具体化与客观化的特性。中心思想是作品中包含着的相当抽象的对“世界”与“存在”所提出的“问题”与“解答”；母题指的是作品中众多复杂的人物和情节中所提炼出来的较小的具体单位；题材则是在作品之前即存在着的同人类生活息息相关的完整而清晰的故事线索。它们分别拥有不同的结构功能。     

Der Einsatz von Missing Data Techniken in der Arbeitsmarktforschung des IAB

Zusammenfassung Dieser Beitrag gibt einen überblick über aktuelle Forschungsprojekte des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), die sich alle auf unterschiedliche Weise mit der Behebung von Problemen mit Missing Data befassen. Hierzu geh?ren einerseits Projekte, die Stichproben verwenden wie das IAB-Betriebspanel, die IAB-Besch?ftigtenstichprobe oder die Erhebung der offenen Stellen, die entweder wie alle Stichprobenerhebungen durch Antwortausf?lle beeintr?chtigt sind oder aber zensierte Beobachtungen aufweisen. Auf der anderen Seite z?hlen hierzu Forschungsprojekte, die versuchen, unterschiedliche Datengrundlagen vereinbar zu machen, die auf verschiedenen regionalen oder klassifikatorischen Abgrenzungen beruhen. Au?erdem wird das Projekt TrEffeR des IAB und der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) vorgestellt, das der oft ausgesprochenen Forderung gerecht wird, die Ma?nahmen der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik auf breiter Basis zu evaluieren, und diese Erkenntnisse für das operative Gesch?ft der BA nutzbar macht.