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911.
In the last twenty years the United States has seen a positive relationship between female labor supply and total fertility rates, which differs from the pattern observed over the preceding years. We construct a general equilibrium overlapping generations model capable of generating this changing relationship between fertility and female labor supply. We argue that skilled biased technological change in recent decades has increased the skill premium and has therefore decreased the relative cost of (unskilled) child care services. The positive effect of the increase in female mean wages on fertility rates, and the inducement for labor force participation provided by the reduction in the relative cost of child care services, generated the positive relationship between fertility rates and female labor force participation in the last two decades.All correspondence to Amaia Iza. This paper has benefited particularly from comments by Juan Carlos Conesa, Pedro Mira and Sara de la Rica. We also acknowledge countless conversations with María Paz Espinosa and useful comments from Jaime Alonso, Jose María Da-Rocha, Tim Kehoe, José Victor Rios-Rull, when the paper was presented at the IV Workshop of Dynamic Macroeconomics held in Vigo (Spain, July 1999) and in Universidade de Vigo (October, 2000). We also thank an anonymous referee whose comments enabled us to improve the paper considerably. Financial support from Universidad del País Vasco 9UPV 00035.321-13511/2001, Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia PB097-0620, MCYT BEC2000/1394 and Instituto de la mujer (Ministerio de Trabajo y Asuntos Sociales) MTAS 33/00 is gratefully acknowledged. Any remaining errors are the authors responsibility. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang. 相似文献
912.
Porter L Hao L Bishai D Serwadda D Wawer MJ Lutalo T Gray R;Rakai Project Team 《Demography》2004,41(3):465-482
Little is known about the impact of HIV infection on the disruption of families through separation, divorce, and widowhood. Using life tables and multinomial logistic regression, this research examined the influence of HIV status on the risk of separation or divorce and widowhood among women in Rakai, Uganda. The multivariate results revealed that dissolution is more common among HIV-infected women and that infected women in HIV-discordant couples are especially likely to face separation or divorce than women in other HIV-status couples. These results highlight women's vulnerability to the social impact of HIV infection and the importance of dyadic studies of the disruption of unions. 相似文献
913.
Paradox lost: Explaining the hispanic adult mortality advantage 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We tested three competing hypotheses regarding the adult "Hispanic mortality paradox": data artifact, migration, and cultural or social buffering effects. On the basis of a series of parametric hazard models estimated on nine years of mortality follow-up data, our results suggest that the "Hispanic" mortality advantage is a feature found only among foreign-born Mexicans and foreign-born Hispanics other than Cubans or Puerto Ricans. Our analysis suggests that the foreign-born Mexican advantage can be attributed to return migration, or the "salmon-bias" effect. However, we were unable to account for the mortality advantage observed among other foreign-born Hispanics. 相似文献
914.
915.
Demographic studies that search for signs of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa rarely examine the complex gamut of
individual aspirations and misgivings, hopes and frustrations, failures and triumphs that accompany the emerging declines
of fertility rates in the subcontinent. This study draws upon qualitative data collected in peri-urban areas of Maputo, Mozambique’s
capital and largest metropolis, to explore contradictory meanings and feelings surrounding changes in fertility intentions
and contraceptive choices. It argues that although changes in these two aspects of reproductive life are interrelated, they
are predicated on distinct types and configurations of external pressures and psychological apparatus, which is often manifested
as a puzzling disjunction between fertility preferences and contraceptive use. This disjunction can be further reinforced
by persistent gender divisions in reproductive views and strategies. Informal social interaction plays an important role in
building societal consensus over fertility matters, but because such interaction deals with reproductive intentions and contraceptive
use through largely different mechanisms, it may also help accentuate the intentions-contraception disjunction. This study’s
findings therefore call upon both researchers and policymakers to attend more closely to the multidimensionality of fertility
transitions in sub-Saharan societies and specifically to the complexities underlying such popular notions as “unmet need for
family planning,” “spacing” versus “limiting” births, or “spousal communication” on reproductive matters. 相似文献
916.
Population Scenarios Based on Probabilistic Projections: An Application for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Probabilistic population forecasts offer a number of advantages to users. However, in some cases population is one component of a larger analysis that may take a different approach to uncertainty. For example, integrated assessments of environmental issues such as climate change or ecosystem degradation have typically used a small number of alternative scenarios to explore uncertainty in future environmental outcomes. In such cases, population projections that are provided only as probability distributions are difficult to use. I present a method of employing probabilistic population projections to derive individual, deterministic projections that can be used within scenarios for integrated assessments. The principal advantages of this approach are that (1) it provides a less ad hoc way of defining deterministic projections intended to be consistent with more comprehensive scenarios that describe, among other things, future socio-economic developments; (2) it provides more flexibility in specifying input assumptions for deterministic projections as compared to choosing off-the-shelf projections, allowing population assumptions to be tailored to the scenario; and (3) it provides a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty associated with any given deterministic projection. I describe the application of the method to the development of population projections used in integrated scenarios for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, an international scientific effort to assess the current conditions of and future outlook for global ecosystem goods and services. Results show that the MA scenarios are each consistent with a relatively wide range of demographic outcomes. For some scenarios, ranges of plausible outcomes in some regions overlap substantially, indicating that particular population projections could be consistent with more than one scenario. In other cases, uncertainty ranges for different scenarios are distinct, indicating that a projection consistent with one scenario is unlikely to be also consistent with another. Comparing variances of the conditional projections also provides insight into how much different storylines constrain future demographic developments. The development of the MA projections points to important areas of future research on correlations among demographic rates and on uncertainty across scales. It also serves as an illustration of how probabilistic and alternative scenario-based approaches to uncertainty can be combined within a single integrated analysis.This revised version was published online in April 2005 with corrections to figures 1-3. 相似文献
917.
Anna?L.?D.?LauEmail author Robert?A.?Cummins Wenda?Mcpherson 《Social indicators research》2005,72(3):403-430
The Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI) is being developed for the cross-cultural measurement of subjective wellbeing (SWB). This paper reports the findings of its utility with the Hong Kong Chinese and Australian populations. An item on affect, ‘satisfaction with own happiness’ was also investigated to determine whether it should be added to the index. Three-hundred and sixty participants (180 per country), with equal representation from groups aged 18–35, 35–64 and 65 years and above, were recruited from each country. The PWI demonstrated good psychometric performance in terms of its reliability, validity and sensitivity, which are comparable in both countries. The item ‘satisfaction with own happiness’ was found to contribute significantly to the scale’s psychometric performance in Australia but not in Hong Kong. Cultural differences in the perception of the concepts ‘satisfaction’ and ‘happiness’ were suggested as an explanation for this finding. The PWI data are also consistent with homeostasis theory, which proposes that each person’s SWB level is maintained within a limited positive range. For the Australian population, their mean SWB level fell within the established Western range of 70–80, on a scale from 0 to 100. The Hong Kong population, however, fell below this range. Cultural response bias was identified as a plausible explanation for the differences between the Hong Kong and Australian samples. 相似文献
918.
919.
920.
Cognitive Models of Fertility Decline in Oaxaca City,Mexico 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper presents a systematic analysis of the culture of natality. In the first section, I present an extended definition of culture informed by cognitive anthropology and evolutionary biology. I argue that culture is an adaptation and a virtual environment with which humans must interact in order to survive and reproduce in a given physical environment. In the second section, I present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of qualitative interview data collected in Oaxaca City, Mexico, on reproductive behavior. The analysis examines evidence of cultural differences and similarities. I conclude by discussing implications for a theory of fertility decline. 相似文献